NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Bethany_B wrote:

Anyone with more than one brain cell is doing that, my current side has those three as well as Hynes, though I may be forced to give up one of them if we don't get as many cheapies as I think we might.

You may want to take your Souths goggles off when it comes to Tatola, he just isn't that good in fantasy.

I do look at it with my Souths goggles is off Tatola in games over 40mins avg 44.5 in 48.5mins.

If Arrow starts edge and later moves to middle that’s better for Tatola.

mattnz wrote:

Talk of Flanagan playing some hooker. Seems funny to have Flanagan hooker, with a state of Origin hooker in the halves.

Lots of potential value hookers in the $500k range, some will deliver, hard to know which at this stage:
Brandon $530k
Liddle $536k
Verrills $553k
Brailey $575k
Lussick $459k


For team structure it makes sense to grab a couple of them and switch to another in that price range if it looks like there is a better option after the first couple of rounds, than one that you have in your team. No need to spend up to Grant.

Don’t think I can start with Cheese again, Crossland will take mins off Brailey

Rabbits21 wrote:
I do look at it with my Souths goggles is off Tatola in games over 40mins avg 44.5 in 48.5mins.

If Arrow starts edge and later moves to middle that’s better for Tatola.

You can't just look at past stats and assume future performance from them - the eye test is just as important if not more so. Tatola is a plodder, albeit one that is a bit underpriced.

He definitely has a bit of value but I'm not convinced he has enough.

Bethany_B wrote:

If he's in the team and Hands is not on the bench I don't mind it, but if they're both there (I think this is far more likely than not) then they're both a no go.

That Eels forward pack has too much depth to play a bit part HOK. Paulo will play fewer, but more intense minutes. Tuilagi good chance to start and may have some value if so. Cartwright goes back to being a valuable sideshow, but non-fantasy relevant. Greig goes back to being a 20-minute power interchange. Lionel Ritchie (Harper) will be one of the elite scoring CTRs, albeit too pricey to select in your team at the start of the year.

Lussick, Lane, Tuilagi (maybe), and Brown/Moses (perhaps) looking best value at the moment in that side.

Thoughts on Cotric 261k and DPP.

Only avg 28.8 in 2022
Only avg 23.1 in 2023

That’s in games on wing

Maybe one for your 18-21?

Bethany_B wrote:

You can't just look at past stats and assume future performance from them - the eye test is just as important if not more so. Tatola is a plodder, albeit one that is a bit underpriced.

He definitely has a bit of value but I'm not convinced he has enough.

Tatola had 2/3 knee injuries last year and a neck injury and lost his Father. Calling him a plodder is disrespectful in 2022 he won our George Piggins player of the year award I’m not saying he’s elite by any means but he’s a good first grade prop.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Tatola had 2/3 knee injuries last year and a neck injury and lost his Father. Calling him a plodder is disrespectful in 2022 he won our George Piggins player of the year award I’m not saying he’s elite by any means but he’s a good first grade prop.

Quite fitting that the Rabbitohs award for "plodder of the year" is named after one of the greatest "plodders" to play the game  

Rabbits21 wrote:
Tatola had 2/3 knee injuries last year and a neck injury and lost his Father. Calling him a plodder is disrespectful in 2022 he won our George Piggins player of the year award I’m not saying he’s elite by any means but he’s a good first grade prop.

Nothing wrong with being a plodder, every team needs one (ours is Josh King). They just aren't very good as fantasy options.

Tatola is perfectly fine IRL but he's mid tier in fantasy.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Don’t think I can start with Cheese again, Crossland will take mins off Brailey

Brailey basically never gets subbed unless he's injured. Unfortunately he has had some serious injuries the past few seasons. But if he can stay fit I'd expect him to play 80 minutes pretty much every week.

Milchcow wrote:

Brailey basically never gets subbed unless he's injured. Unfortunately he has had some serious injuries the past few seasons. But if he can stay fit I'd expect him to play 80 minutes pretty much every week.

You don’t think Crossland did enough to take a few mins off him? I mean he’s not as good as Brailey but he still did a good job?

Hmmmm maybe a Robson and Brailey combo could be the way to go.

The one I’m keen on and people will say I’m crazy is Spencer Leniu especially if JWH is suspended I mean JWH is older now too. I do see Spencer getting an uptick in minutes at the Roosters and going to another level.

Dare I say it is anyone considering Cheese priced at 39?

Rabbits21 wrote:
You don’t think Crossland did enough to take a few mins off him? I mean he’s not as good as Brailey but he still did a good job?

Hmmmm maybe a Robson and Brailey combo could be the way to go.

The one I’m keen on and people will say I’m crazy is Spencer Leniu especially if JWH is suspended I mean JWH is older now too. I do see Spencer getting an uptick in minutes at the Roosters and going to another level

If any forward in that Roosters side is going to get a bump in minutes, it's Terrell May. He was killing it at the end of last year and showed he's capable of it.

Leniu is a big trap imo, and even May probably isn't enough value (priced at 36, best case probably averages mid 40s which is barely enough)

Bethany_B wrote:

If any forward in that Roosters side is going to get a bump in minutes, it's Terrell May. He was killing it at the end of last year and showed he's capable of it.

Leniu is a big trap imo, and even May probably isn't enough value (priced at 36, best case probably averages mid 40s which is barely enough)

Don’t forget though they’re paying big money for Leniu and there is a reason he’s leaving Penrith to step up a bit more

Rabbits21 wrote:
Don’t forget though they’re paying  big money for Leniu and there is a reason he’s leaving Penrith to step up a bit more

That won't do anything to his fantasy scores, his PPM is too low to be worth it anyway. His PPM in 2023 was 0.87 and is priced at 29, so for him to be 10 points of value (averaging 39), he would need to get 45 minutes a game, which is a stretch even in the most optimistic scenarios (he averaged 33.1 minutes per game in 2023 and has only ever played 40+ minutes five times in his whole career).

Terrell May on the other hand had a PPM of 1.08 in 2023, and is priced at 36, so to be 10 points of value (averaging 46), he would need 43 minutes a game.

TLDR: I don't think either of them are worth it but May is better than Leniu

Why would the Roosters sign the best impact forward in the NRL and try to make him less explosive?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Why would the Roosters sign the best impact forward in the NRL and try to make him less explosive?

Yeah, I agree.

He is always going to be a small minutes forward, changing clubs doesn't change that, is an impact player, not a guy with a big motor. In 5 seasons, he has never played more than 44 minutes, even when starting, or when players are injured and need someone to step up, it is never him that has the capacity to do so.

The Leniu trap is well set for this season. Currently in 23% of teams.

May played 56 and 54 minutes off the bench in the finals series for Roosters last year, for 84 and 56 fantasy points. He is the guy that will step up and take the minutes when needed off the bench.

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mattnz wrote:

Yeah, I agree.

He is always going to be a small minutes forward, changing clubs doesn't change that, is an impact player, not a guy with a big motor. In 5 seasons, he has never played more than 44 minutes, even when starting, or when players are injured and need someone to step up, it is never him that has the capacity to do so.

The Leniu trap is well set for this season. Currently in 23% of teams.

May played 56 and 54 minutes off the bench in the finals series for Roosters last year, for 84 and 56 fantasy points. He is the guy that will step up and take the minutes when needed off the bench.

Roosters didn't have JWH or Leniu available in the finals last year. We had to play Egan Butcher at prop ffs.

JWH might not be available to start the season either, which could sucker a few into May, but if/when he's back as a starter then Collins, JWH and a big minute Radley and May/Leniu/Angus on the bench doesn't leave a huge amount of minutes for May even if Angus spells 2RF as well, considering Leniu should get at least 30 (which doesn't necessarily make him a buy either).

*edit* and minutes for Watson as well, who might play a bit of lock as well as hooker. And maybe it'll be Sitili on the bench with Angus starting, but that'll still be bench mid/edg. In short, pack too stacked for certain value other than whichever of Angus/Sitili/Wong starts on the edge.