NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Bethany_B wrote:
Leniu is a big trap imo, and even May probably isn't enough value (priced at 36, best case probably averages mid 40s which is barely enough)

rhinoceroo wrote:

Roosters didn't have JWH or Leniu available in the finals last year. We had to play Egan Butcher at prop ffs.

JWH might not be available to start the season either, which could sucker a few into May, but if/when he's back as a starter then Collins, JWH and a big minute Radley and May/Leniu/Angus on the bench doesn't leave a huge amount of minutes for May even if Angus spells 2RF as well, considering Leniu should get at least 30 (which doesn't necessarily make him a buy either).

*edit* and minutes for Watson as well, who might play a bit of lock as well as hooker. And maybe it'll be Sitili on the bench with Angus starting, but that'll still be bench mid/edg. In short, pack too stacked for certain value other than whichever of Angus/Sitili/Wong starts on the edge.

Bethany_B wrote:

The part you're missing is that Tatola's PPM dropped significantly in 2023. The four years before it was between 0.91 and 0.95ppm in each season, while in 2023 it dropped to 0.81.
In all five of those years, his average minutes were between 45 and 50, even removing all the games where he played less than 30 mins (e.g. his HIA-affected score of 1 in 1 minute in round 1 2023)

He is priced at 35 so has to average 45 to be worth having (or at least 43)

At his current PPM of 0.81, he would need to average 55 minutes a game to average 45, and if he gets 45 minutes as you think, he would average 36, so 1 point of value (LOL)
If he can get back to his past PPM of about 0.9, then he needs to average 50 minutes a game, which is still unlikely but at least somewhat feasible. At 45 minutes, he would average 40.5 points, so 5 points of value (not enough)

Even if he gets back to his past PPM of 0.9, he won't average enough. If he gets 45 minutes as you expect he will, his PPM would need to be at least 1, which is well beyond his best season.

Bethany_B wrote:

If you think his PPM will go back up AND that he'll average over 50 minutes a game, then get on. I'm not convinced either of those things will happen, let alone both.

Milchcow wrote:

Brailey basically never gets subbed unless he's injured. Unfortunately he has had some serious injuries the past few seasons. But if he can stay fit I'd expect him to play 80 minutes pretty much every week.

Scoopadifuego wrote:


This assumes 2 day turnaround = rested, 3 day turnaround = 50/50 and gives the variation seen, 4 days and beyond = playing.  Not perfect but a decent base to work from.

Rabbits21 wrote:To whoever downvoted that above go and fuck yourself you turd just like the turd who stole David Warner baggy green that cunt can also fuck himself! Lowlife idiots in life I’m over them….. and there are plenty out there!

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks mate love your work as always.

What are your early brief thoughts re things?

Anything really standing out?

easytiger wrote:The worst-kept secret in the NRL finally confirmed;

Jarome Luai 5 year deal to the Tigers commencing 2025

Looking forward to plenty of Jahream-Jarome word play in the years to come

mattnz wrote:

Have heard he hasnt been turning up to Panthers training. Wonder if he goes early?

Scoopadifuego wrote:

ohfuckmyeyesarebleeding: