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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:47 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:
    Leniu is a big trap imo, and even May probably isn't enough value (priced at 36, best case probably averages mid 40s which is barely enough)

    If you find 10-15 guys offering 8-10pts of barely enough value like May from R1 you’ll win the comp.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:58 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Roosters didn't have JWH or Leniu available in the finals last year. We had to play Egan Butcher at prop ffs.

    JWH might not be available to start the season either, which could sucker a few into May, but if/when he's back as a starter then Collins, JWH and a big minute Radley and May/Leniu/Angus on the bench doesn't leave a huge amount of minutes for May even if Angus spells 2RF as well, considering Leniu should get at least 30 (which doesn't necessarily make him a buy either).

    *edit* and minutes for Watson as well, who might play a bit of lock as well as hooker. And maybe it'll be Sitili on the bench with Angus starting, but that'll still be bench mid/edg. In short, pack too stacked for certain value other than whichever of Angus/Sitili/Wong starts on the edge.
    Any interest in Cheese mate dare I say it?
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:20 pm

    Just on some saying Tatola isn’t a good pick I just did some research…..

    Tatola avg 44.8 at prop in games over 40mins for his career.

    In games over 40mins but under 50mins avg is 43 for his career.

    So that not too bad it’s not like there is only 3-4 points value there it’s looking like 8 points at worst if he gets 45mins.


    Cotter is the other one I am looking into….

    In Cotter first 10 games last year where he avg 48.8 he played over 55mins in 8 of them. Just 2 outlier games where he played 35 and 46mins.

    You’d flick him over origin for sure. But if that ppm comes up a bit I think he could avg 50-52 first 10-12 rounds.

    Cowboys need to win too otherwise Payten is under pressure.

    It might come down to me being able to only go 1 of Lane or Cotter
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:41 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Just on some saying Tatola isn’t a good pick I just did some research…..

    Tatola avg 44.8 at prop in games over 40mins for his career.

    In games over 40mins but under 50mins avg is 43 for his career.

    So that not too bad it’s not like there is only 3-4 points value there it’s looking like 8 points at worst if he gets 45mins.

    The part you're missing is that Tatola's PPM dropped significantly in 2023. The four years before it was between 0.91 and 0.95ppm in each season, while in 2023 it dropped to 0.81.
    In all five of those years, his average minutes were between 45 and 50, even removing all the games where he played less than 30 mins (e.g. his HIA-affected score of 1 in 1 minute in round 1 2023)

    He is priced at 35 so has to average 45 to be worth having (or at least 43)

    At his current PPM of 0.81, he would need to average 55 minutes a game to average 45, and if he gets 45 minutes as you think, he would average 36, so 1 point of value (LOL)
    If he can get back to his past PPM of about 0.9, then he needs to average 50 minutes a game, which is still unlikely but at least somewhat feasible. At 45 minutes, he would average 40.5 points, so 5 points of value (not enough)

    Even if he gets back to his past PPM of 0.9, he won't average enough. If he gets 45 minutes as you expect he will, his PPM would need to be at least 1, which is well beyond his best season.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:10 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    The part you're missing is that Tatola's PPM dropped significantly in 2023. The four years before it was between 0.91 and 0.95ppm in each season, while in 2023 it dropped to 0.81.
    In all five of those years, his average minutes were between 45 and 50, even removing all the games where he played less than 30 mins (e.g. his HIA-affected score of 1 in 1 minute in round 1 2023)

    He is priced at 35 so has to average 45 to be worth having (or at least 43)

    At his current PPM of 0.81, he would need to average 55 minutes a game to average 45, and if he gets 45 minutes as you think, he would average 36, so 1 point of value (LOL)
    If he can get back to his past PPM of about 0.9, then he needs to average 50 minutes a game, which is still unlikely but at least somewhat feasible. At 45 minutes, he would average 40.5 points, so 5 points of value (not enough)

    Even if he gets back to his past PPM of 0.9, he won't average enough. If he gets 45 minutes as you expect he will, his PPM would need to be at least 1, which is well beyond his best season.
    I’m not missing anything that was the first season his ppm dropped a bit and I’m putting it down to him not being fully fit with 2/3 knee issues plus losing his Father I know that took a big toll on him. When fully fit which he was the previous 3/4 seasons he’s shown what he can do. I’m backing Junior to be fully fit to start the season.

    If Arrow is named to start on edge that’s gonna be even better for Tatola.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:16 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    I’m not missing anything that was the first season his ppm dropped a bit and I’m putting it down to him not being fully fit with 2/3 knee issues plus losing his Father I know that took a big toll on him. When fully fit which he was the previous 3/4 seasons he’s shown what he can do. I’m backing Junior to be fully fit to start the season.

    If Arrow is named to start on edge that’s gonna be even better for Tatola.

    If you think his PPM will go back up AND that he'll average over 50 minutes a game, then get on. I'm not convinced either of those things will happen, let alone both.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:49 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    If you think his PPM will go back up AND that he'll average over 50 minutes a game, then get on. I'm not convinced either of those things will happen, let alone both.
    If the ppm comes back up playing around 47-48mins at a ppm of 0.91-0.95 will be enough value.

    All it takes is a try or another prop to go HIA he will get bigger mins. I think he has at least 100k in him maybe more. He’s in my side currently unless something better pops up.

    Current mids are Haas Cotter and Tatola
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:21 am

    Happy New Year my fellow kents! Here’s to good health and happiness in 2024 and plenty of good fantasy talk, high ranks and the usual banter and arguments lol…………

    I’m sure some of you are either fast asleep or a bit smashed right now.

    I’m just lying here recovering from COVID and bed ridden after falling down the stairs on Friday Night. Haven’t seen a doctor yet I will Tuesday I’ve hurt my ankle and knee I’m just hoping they are sprained bit I can’t walk far and I’m limping along. Meant to work on Tuesday I can’t see it happening.

    In other news Silky is still fighting but is down to 2.8kg just enjoying her she could have 3-4 weeks to go or a couple of months they don’t know but she’s declining but hey she saw Christmas and New Year so that’s positive.

    And finally GO YOU MIGHTY RABBITOHS IN 2024 REDEMPTION TIME BABY!!! Easts for top 2 with their roster anything else is a fail lol!
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:20 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Brailey basically never gets subbed unless he's injured. Unfortunately he has had some serious injuries the past few seasons. But if he can stay fit I'd expect him to play 80 minutes pretty much every week.
    I asked my 2 Knights mates who are big fantasy players as well they think Crossland did so well last year and that Brailey has been so injury prone that Brailey will pull back to 65mins. Especially to start with anyway whilst he is underdone.
    Scoopadifuego
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    Post by Scoopadifuego Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:44 pm

    It's 2024, that means it's spreadsheet season. NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in - Page 6 A10
    Scoopadifuego
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    Post by Scoopadifuego Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:46 pm

    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in - Page 6 Better12


    This assumes 2 day turnaround = rested, 3 day turnaround = 50/50 and gives the variation seen, 4 days and beyond = playing. Not perfect but a decent base to work from.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 pm

    Silky is in the animal hospital now, she has to stay there for 2 nights on a drip. Overnight she became lethargic and weak at home and wasn’t herself today.

    Over the past 5 years her chronic kidney disease has been stable. She also has intestinal lymphoma, but unfortunately her kidney disease has suddenly progressed.

    Now 2 of her kidney levels are elevated in the blood. The emergency vet said to hope and pray the fluid drip they give her over the next 8-12 hours helps these to come down. But it’s looking like stage 4 kidney failure.

    The vet said if the drip doesn’t help she will be in end stage kidney failure and her prognosis would be very poor.

    Silky’s regular specialist  he wasn’t there today but they spoke to him and he said it is about supportive care for Silky at this stage. They have done just about all they can do for her.

    Silky is still very affectionate and cuddly and her mind is still very sharp.

    We have had Silky 15 years this month and she is so special to us all.

    Below is a photo of Silky in a cage in the special cat ward at the hospital.

    Please keep Silky and us in your thoughts and prayers at this very sad time!


    I will be lost and a complete mess without her.

    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in - Page 6 2aefcc10
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:58 am

    To whoever downvoted that above go and fuck yourself you turd just like the turd who stole David Warner baggy green that cunt can also fuck himself! Lowlife idiots in life I’m over them….. and there are plenty out there!
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:07 am

    Scoopadifuego wrote:NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in - Page 6 Better12


    This assumes 2 day turnaround = rested, 3 day turnaround = 50/50 and gives the variation seen, 4 days and beyond = playing.  Not perfect but a decent base to work from.
    Thanks mate love your work as always.

    What are your early brief thoughts re things?

    Anything really standing out?
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:21 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:To whoever downvoted that above go and fuck yourself you turd just like the turd who stole David Warner baggy green that cunt can also fuck himself! Lowlife idiots in life I’m over them….. and there are plenty out there!

    Yeah I agree whoever downvoted that has no heart. So sad to hear that bro what a beautiful cat & I hope your cat gets better & is back in your loving arms soon. All the best bro.
    Scoopadifuego
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    Post by Scoopadifuego Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:58 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Thanks mate love your work as always.

    What are your early brief thoughts re things?

    Anything really standing out?

    Tigers will be especially good over Origin, IPap and Bateman will be huge, as will Dolphins guys like JMK (only team to play the 3 Origjn weeks, like 2023 Eels but without the Rd27 bye). Cows look alright to grab a few Origin guys so grabbing double Cotter/Robson isn't going to hurt you much later on.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:11 pm

    The worst-kept secret in the NRL finally confirmed;

    Jarome Luai 5 year deal to the Tigers commencing 2025

    Looking forward to plenty of Jahream-Jarome word play in the years to come
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:22 pm

    easytiger wrote:The worst-kept secret in the NRL finally confirmed;

    Jarome Luai 5 year deal to the Tigers commencing 2025

    Looking forward to plenty of Jahream-Jarome word play in the years to come

    Have heard he hasnt been turning up to Panthers training. Wonder if he goes early?
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:34 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Have heard he hasnt been turning up to Panthers training. Wonder if he goes early?

    Schneider @ 468k would be next in line to partner cleary he's not a bad player went quite good at the raiders.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:42 pm

    Scoopadifuego wrote:
    ohfuckmyeyesarebleeding:



      Current date/time is Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:34 pm