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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

    GarethEllisismyDad
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    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:59 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:Are people not using Assistant Coach this year? https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f11-assistant-coach

    ill probably do a team tracker again, enjoyed writing it
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:26 pm

    Honey Badger wrote:and who will be Storms starting edges will be that would be really helpful!

    We'll find out who the Storm edges are before round 1. (Same for Penrith, Cowboys, Parra)

    Unless you are in a draft comp, there's no rush to lock anyone in.
    mickspicks
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    Post by mickspicks Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:39 pm

    Holy Moly wrote:Bethany,

    Are you able to elaborate on why the following is likely:

    Kenny probably won't play big mins at hooker, more likely 20-25 and then a bit more in the middle later.

    The new trend in NRL is the dual hooker. Kenny is ideal for that first 20, then slot in Sonny Luke who has the zip and vision (and imo similar to Api). Allows Kenny to potentially come in later in the middle, assuming Luke isn't gassed or injured.
    Holy Moly
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    Post by Holy Moly Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 pm

    mickspicks wrote:

    The new trend in NRL is the dual hooker. Kenny is ideal for that first 20, then slot in Sonny Luke who has the zip and vision (and imo similar to Api). Allows Kenny to potentially come in later in the middle, assuming Luke isn't gassed or injured.

    In RD 18 and RD 25 in 2022, Kenny was the starting hooker and Luke was the utility. Kenny played 80 min in the first game and 74 in the second. Luke played 21 min and then 36 min. If they use a similar plan for 2023, Kenny would be pretty good value.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:21 pm

    Holy Moly wrote:

    In RD 18 and RD 25 in 2022, Kenny was the starting hooker and Luke was the utility. Kenny played 80 min in the first game and 74 in the second. Luke played 21 min and then 36 min. If they use a similar plan for 2023, Kenny would be pretty good value.

    Great comment thanks. The weird thing about those 2 games is that Yeo also played 74 and 80 minutes in those 2 games, so not sure where they stole the minutes from.

    I am going to be looking closely to see in the trials if the rule changes for this season result in more tries around the ruck, which would heavily benefit hookers. The rule change is that players must have both feet onside, which makes a huge difference on the line.
    Makes it easier to:
    1, Scoot from dummy half; or
    2. To put a guy running fast at the line over as the 9.

    If it is making a difference, I will load up on hookers, especially those who are dual, as it could be a 5 points per game bump for that position.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:24 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Great comment thanks. The weird thing about those 2 games is that Yeo also played 74 and 80 minutes in those 2 games, so not sure where they stole the minutes from.

    I am going to be looking closely to see in the trials if the rule changes for this season result in more tries around the ruck, which would heavily benefit hookers. The rule change is that players must have both feet onside, which makes a huge difference on the line.
    Makes it easier to:
    1, Scoot from dummy half; or
    2. To put a guy running fast at the line through a gap as the 9.

    If it is making a difference, I will load up on hookers, especially those who are dual, as it could be a 5 points per game bump for that position.

    You have confidence that the games will be reffed the same in week 3 as they are in the trials or week 1?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:25 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    You have confidence that the games will be reffed the same in week 3 as they are in the trials or week 1?

    If there is an edge that most miss, I will take it, if things later change, I can adjust.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:46 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    If there is an edge that most miss, I will take it, if things later change, I can adjust.

    Whether you can adjust or not - and how much opportunity cost you're losing by adjusting - will depend on exactly how many hookers you're loading up on and whether lack of bench balance and forced trades more than negate any edge you may or may not be getting.

    If they do actually enforce this rule - which is doubtful, all it needs is the ref to stand half a pace in front of the line for it to be the status quo - it will likely lead to more penalties and binnings rather than more scoot tries, imo. Teams prefer to give away penalties than tries, generally.

    The other rule change around speeding up the play-the-balls with quick "release" calls might (again, if enforced) be good for eyes-up scooters like Cook and Cheese, but squad balance is still key.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:52 pm

    PS. I think there's only one actual hooker playing hooker who's dual and that's Cheese who literally everyone will have?

    *Edit* wait, there's Billy Walters as well. You picking him?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:18 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:PS. I think there's only one actual hooker playing hooker who's dual and that's Cheese who literally everyone will have?

    *Edit* wait, there's Billy Walters as well. You picking him?

    I hadnt looked at specific names.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:31 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Great comment thanks. The weird thing about those 2 games is that Yeo also played 74 and 80 minutes in those 2 games, so not sure where they stole the minutes from.

    I am going to be looking closely to see in the trials if the rule changes for this season result in more tries around the ruck, which would heavily benefit hookers. The rule change is that players must have both feet onside, which makes a huge difference on the line.
    Makes it easier to:
    1, Scoot from dummy half; or
    2. To put a guy running fast at the line over as the 9.

    If it is making a difference, I will load up on hookers, especially those who are dual, as it could be a 5 points per game bump for that position.

    If this is your rationale, then Reece Robson had better be in your team because his draw is tasty and he showed last year how much he loves a scoot close to the line
    mickspicks
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    Post by mickspicks Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:58 pm

    Holy Moly wrote:

    In RD 18 and RD 25 in 2022, Kenny was the starting hooker and Luke was the utility. Kenny played 80 min in the first game and 74 in the second. Luke played 21 min and then 36 min. If they use a similar plan for 2023, Kenny would be pretty good value.

    It would be a strange tactic to play Kenny for longer minutes imo. It's either no Soni or shared minutes.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:01 pm

    Holy Moly wrote:

    In RD 18 and RD 25 in 2022, Kenny was the starting hooker and Luke was the utility. Kenny played 80 min in the first game and 74 in the second. Luke played 21 min and then 36 min. If they use a similar plan for 2023, Kenny would be pretty good value.

    Both games there were Penrith scratch sides and in R18 Kurt Falls was basically hooked early in the second half and Luke played halfback, so that explains that one.

    Not sure about R25 although looks like there were a couple of HIAs.
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:19 am

    My bad guys
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:46 am

    dykes suspected torn acl on 21st b'day 2023 season probably over & it happened just after they released miller
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:48 am

    RandomSil wrote:My bad guys

    it's alright bro we still love you
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:50 am

    just watched a video on nrl.com about the madmen gilbert & stone as described by their team mates j-brom & sullivan....i love me a madman so both into my team
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:52 am

    Holy Moly wrote:

    In RD 18 and RD 25 in 2022, Kenny was the starting hooker and Luke was the utility. Kenny played 80 min in the first game and 74 in the second. Luke played 21 min and then 36 min. If they use a similar plan for 2023, Kenny would be pretty good value.
    mattnz wrote:
    Great comment thanks. The weird thing about those 2 games is that Yeo also played 74 and 80 minutes in those 2 games, so not sure where they stole the minutes from.
    .

    You are looking at the wrong games. Yeo played 0 and 0 minutes in R18 and 25 last year

    R18 (post origin) Kenny played 80 and Luke and Eisenhuth split 80 minutes between them as lock.

    R25 was when they rested everyone and played a reserve grade team, would not take anything from the rotations there. Luke got subbed on early due to an HIA in any case
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:59 am

    Forum url should be fixed later today
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    Post by Holy Moly Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:04 am

    Milchcow wrote:


    You are looking at the wrong games. Yeo played 0 and 0 minutes in R18 and 25 last year

    R18 (post origin) Kenny played 80 and Luke and Eisenhuth split 80 minutes between them as lock.

    R25 was when they rested everyone and played a reserve grade team, would not take anything from the rotations there. Luke got subbed on early due to an HIA in any case

    Yep. Very small sample and the games weren't Penrith's full strength team. How do you think they will use Kenny and Luke in 2023?

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