Camo123 2023 Thoughts

Rabbits21 wrote:Camo mate whatever option leaves you the most chance and best route of getting Cleary I would do. If selling Bula to a Teddy for example means it’s harder for you to get Cleary in maybe hold Bula as a 17/18 man looping option?

We are all gonna have to take a cut somewhere I’m treading fine lines like yourself trying to get guns in etc….. and with some players having dropped more cash than we’d like eg Bula it’s making it harder.

For me I might have to miss Harry Grant etc…..

Also what are you gonna do mate if SJ is out due to his partner having the baby? And they have the bye round 22 could you then go SJ to Cleary? I think that’s also worth talking about.

Just doesn’t seem straightforward this weekend I’ve been going back and forth on my trades the last 4 hours and I thought I’d resolved it but I still have not

Cheers Rabs, I think I’ll just keep SJ regardless

Think option 2 is best for your team make up. Regarding which WFB to pick I’d do some calculations to make sure you’re not short on the double trade in for Cleary next week.

Ando wrote:Think option 2 is best for your team make up. Regarding which WFB to pick I’d do some calculations to make sure you’re not short on the double trade in for Cleary next week.

I think the Sandon Smith/Walker news has benefitted me and will keep Sandon Smith short term and hope he gets to around 400-450k

Will be able to afford Cleary now, and yeah have gone with Bula to Garrick

R20: 963 (rank 1018)

Pros: Guess getting a rank rise with no Haas, Horse, Yeo is okay
Cons: WFB continues to disappoint, was going to hold Bula all week and then sold late

Trades: Robson + NAS to Cleary + cashout

Final team (3 trades, 111k)

Grant
Haas Yeo Horse
Bateman Fifita
Cleary Hynes
Manu Lemeulu
Ponga Garrick Edwards

Preston Hopgood SJ Tohu
HGraham Sandon Russell WGraham/Munro

team looking tsacked as mate!

youre trading out two people I'm relying on til seasons end which shows how much better your team is,

13-17 is stacked

Out of trades following this week if I use 2 so going to review my seasons trades

Starting team R1:
BSmith
Haas Tapine Murray
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
IThompson Alamoti
Miller CNK Warbrick

EButcher Boyd Hopgood Trindall
Doorey Sloan IKatoa HSS

Errors in hindsight and learnings
ITT - Trusting a 2 game sample size with tries in both of rookie over Origin player in HTF
Doorey - If a low PPM player is “working towards 80 mins” why did I pick him
IKatoa - rookie HLF with dominant partner
HSS - only had the 8 week prospect when Savage was injured, limited timeframe of cash gen

R2:
Cheese to Robson (C+)
EButcher to Cartwright (A+)
BSmith had a niggle post R1 (eventually disproved) but jumped off to upgrade to keeper. Poor decision in hindsight as early season is time to generate cash. EButcher to Cartwright a brilliant trade

R3:
CNK to Bird (C+)
Boyd to Preston (B-)
CNK had 1 week HIA. In hindsight should have looped Sloan before making decision. Preston a perfect in (and would have held the whole season if not for last week) but Boyd was a rash out based on poor R2 who went on to be a keeper until post Origin when there were other cash cow flops

R4:
Doueihi to SJ (A+)
Probably best trade of season. Doueihi changed role to FB, SJ completely dominant HLF. Maybe only regret is not jumping on SJ R1 as dominant halves are bread and butter of fantasy now

R5:
Doorey to Ford (B+)
Slightly late to Ford after poor R4 setup. Doorey “80 min role” that was promised in preseason never occurred

R6:
Tapine to Frizell (B)
Trindall to Nikorima (A)
Tapine baby so missed 2 of next 3, flip flopped on Hosking or Frizell or WFB at this stage. Frizell fine until surprise Origin recall. Should trust fallen gun more (Latrell lost cash due to no attacking stats and not base

R7:
HSS to Teddy (B)
Sloan to Walsh (C+)
Hopgood to Cheese (B)
Buying fringe Origin WFB at peak price a poor decision. Hopgood benched, Cheese actually had good 5 game run

R8:
Cartwright to Manu (A)
Warbrick to Host (D)
Was just short of Manu in 1 trade and went to known useless fantasy asset in Host to fund it

R9 (here comes the fuckups for the next 10 weeks)
IThompson to Bula (A+)
Katoa to Cotter (E-)
Managed to get blinkers and convince myself Cotter wasn’t going to be picked for Origin. Proceeded to get worst career starting score while JDB went on a tear. Don’t POD the popular play for no reason

R10:
Cotter to Hopgood (C)
Murray to Horse (A)
Alamoti to Lemeulu (B-)
Had missed initial Lemeulu hype and then jumped on after 93 in R9. Murray was losing cash exponentially and Horse playing big mins, still refused to buy JDB because he was named prop and expected a different role

R11:
Ford to Tatola (C)
Just trust the fallen guns ffs. Was short WFB for the byes and Drinkwater was an obvious pick. Went Tatola who plodded along through byes

R12:
Teddy to Billy Smith (F)
Down to 1 CTR with 1hr cut, panic traded while out at drinks and brought in known useless fantasy asset Billy Smith. Overreacted to Teddy poor score previous round when in fact he was averaging mid 40s in ownership

R13:
Cheese to Tohu (B)
Frizell to Moses (B-)
Miller to Ponga (A)
Was oversubscribed on HLFs for the bye and undersubscribed for WFB and still traded in a gun with a bye the next round. Ponga discounted at FB a great trade, but held underperforming Miller for too long just for byes only for him to get dropped

R14:
IKatoa to Oloapu (C+)
Host to Bateman (A)
Bird to Liddle (C-)
Focused too much on bye coverage because I already had a R16 HOK in Robson and turned down Turpin for this alone. Oloapu screwed by an experimenting coach

R15:
Cleary to Marzhew (C-)
Logically I was short a WFB for byes. In reality I could have bought absolutely anyone after Cleary injured and tried to second guess NSW Origin madness

R16:
Marzhew to Edwards (fuck me) (D-)
Moses to Hynes (A+)
Tatola to NAS (B)
Loiero to Turpin (B)
Somehow copped the worst luck with Marzhew missing bus and being dropped for bye. Yet again picked a WFB at peak price and expected a different result.

R17:
Nikorima to Grant (B)
Oloapu to Sandon Smith (B)
Billy Smith to Bird (E-)
Picked Bird coming off knee issues who then suffered knee issues to no surprise. Post Origin much more ideal to go for high upside CTRs given increase blowouts with bottom 4 teams, as opposed to early season OOP CTRs being gold

R18:
Walsh to Yeo (C+)
Again tried to second guess Origin teams when it was fairly obvious Horse would be selected and yet again did not pick JDB. Yeo then got season low score and rested R20

R19:
Bird to Russell (F)
Traded Bird for cashout CTR. Picked known useless fantasy asset on wing in Russell playing FB as opposed to cheaper cashout with higher upside

R20:
Turpin to HGraham (C)
Liddle to Fifita (C)
Bula to Garrick (B-)
Fifita carrying injury out of Origin, probably would have been wise to fade and pick better balanced final team. Garrick luckily got CTR DPP for zero reason

R21:
Robson to Cleary (B)
NAS to Colquhoun (C)
Preston to Nikora (D)
Anytime you can get Cleary should be OK, poor score. Preston out late and poor team setup meant I could only buy EDG. Nikora complete flop in 1 game

Key learnings:
Starting team - cash cows with safe job security, decent NSW cup sample size for rookies. Low PPM known quantities will be low PPM known quantities. Trust dominant halves.

Early rounds: Trade for cash gen and not peak priced keepers

Pre Origin
Trust the fallen guns and don’t always go for peak price guns. If Freddy is NSW coach don’t ever try to play with fire and avoid fringe Origin players unless a clear positive role change as bye schedule turns into nightmare.

Bye period
Quantity can be better than quality in new scoring 13 format. Don’t make trades for a bye 6 weeks into the future because Origin teams can’t be predicted/injuries occur

Post Origin
High upside attacking CTRs can rival OOP CTRs with blowouts more common

nice write up camo

and well done in eliminator, hope the rest of the season goes well!

Enjoyed the read mate. I had a similar backline starting team and not as critical on some of them.

IKat was a slown burn, but guaranteed money maker imo. Could've cashed out to him later when SOS went down and made the bulk of it faster, but didn't expect him to start with an 11 (I played him week 1 ) and stifle any quick gains. Scored the ~30 I was expecting after that.

Doorey another that looked like cashing in and given Cartwright's 18th man or dropped role at Eels previously, he seemed a decent pick. An injury kinda cut him short of gaining a bit more and I finally flicked him to Carty that week, better late than never.

HSS, Alamoti and Talau were my CTRs. Was hoping all 3 could be decent cows, but expected at least 1 to flop. Alamoti kinda made up for it and I grabbed Lemu early, like Rd 4 or 5.

ITT I didn't have, no hate for the people who started with him. Hamiso would've been great though. Those that traded ITT in after Rd 1.. just lol.

I've never finished in the top 100 or even 1000 previously, so maybe you're right to be more critical of those guys, but you were ranked way up there early on and it's been some absolute fucking rotten luck on your trade-ins the past 2-3 months.

Awesome write up mate. A fun read and will be useful for next season. Might have to steal that idea.
A+

R21: 958 (rank 1053)

R22: 951 (rank 946)
Tohu to Latrell, 1 trade remaining
Got less points than Izaac Thompson from 3 of my CTR/WFB (Edwards, Manu, Lem)

R23: 1153 (rank 813)

Finally going to use my last trade this week, as I’m going to need by 18th man for all of R25, R26 and R27 (Haas, Latrell, Hopgood). Trading HGraham to DRussell to get another green dot and a surprising safe 40 point scorer

I’ve also started to do some NRL Fantasy writing for The Casual Athlete which includes content from the earlier trade review if you want to check it out

https://thecasualathlete.com.au/blogs/news/nrl-fantasy-trade-review