Camo123 2023 Thoughts

Early 2023 thoughts & watchlist

HOK

Robson (783k, 54.8, byes R15, R19, R24)
+ Averaged 58.9 as 80 min HOK
+ Interviewed indicating developing kicking game (realistically only 1-2 point increase)

Hodgson (532k, 37.2, byes R14, R18, R27)
+ Averaged 50.4 2021 (Mahoney averaged 46.4 in 2022 in expected similar role)
+ Late first bye until after Origin 1 in R14
- Potentially injury prone

Clark (594k, 41.5, byes R5, R13, R16)
+ Averaged 52.7 in MID role late season in 2022
+ Expected MID DPP
- Small sample size of new position and mins

Boyd (479k, 33.5, byes R5, R13, R16)
+ Average 47.3 across 6 games as dominant HLF
+ HOK/HLF DPP
- Early bye, may be difficult to pick both Clark & Boyd with same bye in R5

Kenny (426k, 29.8, byes R3, R13, R19)
+ Averaged 39.7 at HOK in 2022
- Could be trap as unknown min split with Soni Luke expected on bench
- Early bye could be difficult with starting squad and having multiple other Panthers (Cleary, EDG should be popular)

MID

Murray (904k, 63.2, byes R16, R20, R26)
+ Slightly underpriced excluding 1 min injury game (66.4)
+ Late 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 max
- Possible HIA risk

Haas (809k, 56.6, byes R16, R19, R25)
+ Prior to shoulder/ankle injuries, averaged 66.1 in 7 games (R1-8 last year)
+ Late 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 max
+ Could play more mins early on with Hetherington injured

Tapine (790k, 55.3, byes R8, R16, R20)
+ 63.4 average (57 mins) in prop games above 50 mins in 2022 (61.5 average including 2021)
+ Clear increase in real-life form should sustain mins
- But will Ricky agree with the above point

Cotter (744k, 52.0, byes R15, R19, R24)
+ Averaged 56.8 prop at games above 50 mins 2022 (also smashed it in finals games)
- With "easy draw" early on, may cop some rests??

Elliot (606k, 42.4, byes R10, R14, R19)
+ Averaged 53.6 (60 mins) playing lock over 50 mins 2022
- May not get similar role in new team

TPJ (593k, 41.5, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ If starting EDG, could probably expect 60 mins (25-30 EDG, 30-35 MID) - averages 50.4 (58 mins) at EDG historically
+ MID/EDG dual
+ Offloading machine
- Potentially injury prone with hamstrings, and could play lower mins than expected

BSmith (585k, 40.9, byes R4, R13, R19)
+ Averaged 52.6 (65 mins) playing HOK over 50 min in career
+ HOK/MID DPP

Sutton (491k, 34.3, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ 43.9 average (54 mins) at lock over 40 mins
+ 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 players
- Risk in starting with TPJ/Topine options without Jackson

EDG
Fifita (771k, 53.9, byes R5, R13, R16)
+ 58.3 average over 50 mins at EDG
- Unexpected mins distribution

Egan Butcher (561k, 39.2, byes R4, R13, R19)
+ Averaged 54.3 above 40 mins (55.1 mins) - mostly middle (rumours Angus Crichton is out due to personal reasons indefinitely)
- Early bye with other Roosters being relevant (BSmith)

RFM (560k, 39.2, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ 49.1 average over EDG career over 60 mins
+ Late 1st bye in R13 when only 13 players max
- Risk in starting with TPJ/Topine?

Melbourne EDG (Eisenhuth 396k/27.7, Loiero 389k/27.2, Katoa 448k/31.3) - byes R9, R13, R19
+ All prospective Storm EDG minus Sims appear 10 points underpriced on EDG averages
+ Possibly 2 spots open (if Sims lock) with Kaufusi/KBrom leaving
- Possible Risk of rotation

Panthers EDG (Hosking 479k/33.5, Garner 478k/33.4, byes R3, R13, R19)
+ Both players 10 points underpriced on EDG averages
- Early bye could be difficult with starting squad coverage

Hopgood (453k, 31.7, byes R14, R18, R27)
+ Averaged 60+ in reserve grade with big mins


HLF

Cleary (957k, 66.9, byes R3, R13, R19)
+ Most complete/captainable player in fantasy
- Early bye relying on VC and cheap 18th man (possibility to avoid until R4??)

Doueihi (771k, 53.9, byes R7, R13, R17)
+ 62.0 average at 5/8 in 2022 (61.6 average 5/8 career)
- Possibly shifted to CTR by new coach

Burton (718k, 50.2, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ Averaged 57 in latter half of 2022 and added GK
- More of a gut feel pick than directly undervalued with additions to team

Hastings (645k, 45.1, byes R10, R14, R19)
+ 55.8 average as HLF prior to injury


CTR

Reimis Smith (372k, 26.0, byes R9, R13, R19)
+ 33.8 CTR average at Storm (24 base)
- Relies on attacking stats (don't all CTRs, in top 4 team)

HTF (372k, 26.0, byes R11, R16, R21)
+ 31.8 average at FB
+ If affordable in EMG, safe JS

Thompson (319k, 22.3, byes R16, R20, R26)
+ 40.5 average in 2 games NRL (43.8 2022 NSW cup)
+ High RM average in career history
+ Expected WFB DPP if starting winger
- Taane Milne suspended only R1 (as World Cup included), could lose spot

Bulldogs CTR (230k, 16.1, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ Skelton average 40.3 NSW cup, Alamoti average NSW cup 40
+ Late first bye in Origin round with only max 13 players allowed
- Perham likely starter may mean not starting R1 with Averillo shifted to CTR

WFB

Ponga (532k, 37.2, byes R10, R14, R19)
+ Career FB average 52.6 over 50 mins
+ Had games early 2022 with no GK
- If moved to 5/8, underpriced less on career average
- HIA risk


Savage (452k, 31.6, byes R8, R16, R20)
+ 37.6 average at FB
+ 2nd season should improve

Miller (426k, 29.8, byes R10, R14, R19)
+ Averaged 49.8 in 4 FB games (42.1 average NSW cup) with high average TBs & RM
- Small sample size & moving to worse team (Sharks 2nd & Newtown 1st) where non-GK WFBs struggle to usually average 40+ for 10 points value

CNK (372k, 26.0, byes R12, R16, R22)
+ Career average 41.5 FB over 70 mins
- Neck injury may hinder him

TMM (313k, 21.9, byes R12, R16, R22)
+ 33.8 average at 5/8
- Possible starting position under threat from Metcalf/Volkman (but both also underpriced)

Perham (298k, 20.8, byes R13, R17, R23)
+ Averaged 33 across 4 seasons NSW cup
+ Late 1st bye
- May lose FB spot to Averillo

Camo123 wrote:Early 2023 thoughts & watchlist

HOK
Hodgson (532k, 37.2, 1st bye R14)
+ Averaged 50.4 2021 (Mahoney averaged 46.4 in 2022 in expected similar role)
+ Late first bye until after Origin 1 in R14
- Potentially injury prone

Clark (594k, 41.5, 1st bye R5)
+ Averaged 52.7 in MID role late season in 2022
+ Expected MID DPP
- Small sample size of new position and mins

Kenny (426k, 29.8, 1st bye R3)
+ Averaged 39.7 at HOK in 2022
- Could be trap as unknown min split with Soni Luke expected on bench
- Early bye could be difficult with starting squad and having multiple other Panthers (Cleary, EDG should be popular)

MID


Murray (904k, 63.2, 1st bye R16)
+ Slightly underpriced excluding 1 min injury game (66.4)
+ Late 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 max
- Possible HIA risk

Haas (809k, 56.6, 1st bye R16)
+ Prior to shoulder/ankle injuries, averaged 66.1 in 7 games (R1-8 last year)
+ Late 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 max
+ Could play more mins early on with Hetherington injured

Elliot (606k, 42.4, 1st bye R10)
+ Averaged 53.6 (60 mins) playing lock over 50 mins 2022
- May not get similar role in new team

BSmith (585k, 40.9, 1st bye R4)
+ Averaged 52.6 (65 mins) playing HOK over 50 min in career
+ HOK/MID DPP

Sutton (491k, 34.3, 1st bye R13)
+ 43.9 average (54 mins) at lock over 40 mins
+ 1st bye in origin round you can only field 13 players
- Risk in starting with TPJ/Topine options without Jackson

EDG
Fifita (771k, 53.9, 1st bye R5)
+ 58.3 average over 50 mins at EDG
+ Foran expected to have positive real-life impact

RFM (560k, 39.2, 1st bye R13)
+ 49.1 average over EDG career over 60 mins
+ Late 1st bye in R13 when only 13 players max
- Risk in starting with TPJ/Topine?

Melbourne EDG (Loiero 396k/27.7, Eisenhuth 389k/27.2, Katoa 448k/31.3) - 1st bye R9
+ All prospective Storm EDG minus Sims appear 10 points underpriced on EDG averages
+ Possibly 2 spots open (if Sims lock) with Kaufusi/KBrom leaving
- Possible Risk of rotation

Panthers EDG (Hosking 479k/33.5, Garner 478k/33.4, 1st bye R3)
+ Both players 10 points underpriced on EDG averages
- Early bye could be difficult with starting squad coverage

Dunn (372k, 26.0, 1st bye R15)
+ 40.2 average EDG over 40 mins
+ Leilua stood down could open spot
- Risk of not starting with Hess/Luki back from injury early season

HLF

Cleary (957k, 66.9, 1st bye R3)
+ Most complete/captainable player in fantasy
- Early bye relying on VC and cheap 18th man (possibility to avoid until R4??)

Doueihi (771k, 53.9, 1st bye R7)
+ 62.0 average at 5/8 in 2022 (61.6 average 5/8 career)
- Possibly shifted to CTR by new coach

Hastings (645k, 45.1, 1st bye R10)
+ 55.8 average as HLF prior to injury

Sullivan (340k, 23.8, 1st bye R1)
+ Amone probably going to be stood down, 35.5 average in 4 games in HLF or 5/8
+ and/or - Bye in R1 means banking on starting R2, however least impact on squad cover as you can guarantee other starters
- Hunt likely to dominate KM

CTR

HTF (372k, 26.0, 1st bye R11)
+ 31.8 average at FB
+ If affordable in EMG, safe JS

Thompson (319k, 22.3, 1st bye R16)
+ 40.5 average in 2 games NRL (43.8 2022 NSW cup)
+ High RM average in career history
+ Expected WFB DPP if starting winger

Bulldogs CTR (230k, 16.1, 1st bye R13)
+ Skelton average 40.3 NSW cup, Alamoti average NSW cup 40
+ Late first bye in Origin round with only max 13 players allowed

WFB

Brimson (665k, 46.5, 1st bye R5)
+ Without Sexton (dominant HLF) averaged 58.8 at 5/8 in 2022
+ Foran if HLF unlikely to dominate KM and could gain share of KM
+ Historically HLF available at WFB tend to be more reliable
+ Slight possibility of GK with no Sexton/Isaako (probably unlikely)
- Could potentially get shifted to FB/CTR with spine changes

Ponga (532k, 37.2, 1st bye R10)
+ Career FB average 52.6 over 50 mins
+ Had games early 2022 with no GK
- If moved to 5/8, underpriced less on career average
- HIA risk


Savage (452k, 31.6, 1st bye R8)
+ 37.6 average at FB
+ 2nd season should improve

TMM (313k, 21.9, 1st bye R12)
+ 33.8 average at 5/8
- Possible starting position under threat from Metcalf/Volkman (but both also underpriced)

CNK (372k, 26.0 1st bye R12)
+ Career average 41.5 FB over 70 mins
- Neck injury may hinder him

Nice list,

Not sure about Clark. Surely Isaac Liu, M Fotuaka and Tino are ahead of him as starting MID

I would add to that list

Niukore - likely to be an 80 minute starting EDG now (enticing)

Schuster = cheap as chips and starting at 5/8

Milford - no joke - back with Bennet - its time to shine - has a very high ceiling (priced with minimal risk)

Bird - Finally made the transition to full time LOCK - available at CTR

Ray Stone - base price starting LOCK

Really like the Elliot pick.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Nice list,

Not sure about Clark. Surely Isaac Liu, M Fotuaka and Tino are ahead of him as starting MID

I would add to that list

Niukore - likely to be an 80 minute starting EDG now (enticing)

Schuster = cheap as chips and starting at 5/8

Milford - no joke - back with Bennet - its time to shine - has a very high ceiling (priced with minimal risk)

Bird - Finally made the transition to full time LOCK - available at CTR

Ray Stone - base price starting LOCK

Really like the Elliot pick.

Niukore and Schuster have had most value ripped away with price hikes

Milford probably shares KM with O’Sullivan and there is threat of I Katoa coming into team throughout season

Bird is interesting as definitely has value based on lock games but if he gets shifted early on anywhere else with utility value, loses all the value, one to target early on. Also 600k with R1 bye is a bit of a gamble as you need him to be listed at lock in R2

Stone is on my watchlist, just avoiding mentioning the base price guys mostly as unsure if they’ll start until later in preseason

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Nice list,

Not sure about Clark. Surely Isaac Liu, M Fotuaka and Tino are ahead of him as starting MID

I would add to that list

Niukore - likely to be an 80 minute starting EDG now (enticing)

Schuster = cheap as chips and starting at 5/8

Milford - no joke - back with Bennet - its time to shine - has a very high ceiling (priced with minimal risk)

Bird - Finally made the transition to full time LOCK - available at CTR

Ray Stone - base price starting LOCK

Really like the Elliot pick.

Word is Liu is off to the Warriors, which would change the dynamic for both Clark and Niukore. It seems more likely Niukore will play centre, but wait and see, I guess. There's an argument for Brimson or Difita but think I'll be avoiding Titans anyway to begin with (coaching uncertainty, Difita still lazy and both pretty expensive etc)

Few others to add to the pot:

Barnett if 80 min edge

Hopgood and maybe Doorey at Eels

Averillo for a cheap centre who's playing fullback

Robson one of the few 750k+ keepers with a bit of upside with some early non-80 minute games from last season included in his average/price

Tapine with JPap aging and Elliott gone

The TTrbo conundrum

Is Walsh worth a look?

Christian Welsh and his offloads and dodgy legs leading Melbourne's new-look pack

NAS if he's on an edge

Cleary or Hynes or somehow both?

Cheese and Ponga the only ones I've got locked in at the moment, will look again in February (who am I kidding, I'll look again next week)

Final R1 team - 835, 6313 rank

BSmith
Haas Tapine Murray
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
Thompson Alamoti
Miller CNK Warbrick

Butcher Boyd Hopgood Trindall
Doorey Sloan Katoa HSS

Pros: All guns provided good scoring at expectations except for Tapine, Cheap WFB performed
Cons: Roosters mid rangers were poor
Regrets: Had Robson most of preseason (& Ford) and removed late. Ultimately got Murray, CNK and Trindall over Robson, Ford and TMM which was slight points advantage but negative in Trindall job security

Trade thoughts: With Butcher not suspended & assuming Thompson keeps spot can either play safe with no trades or go aggressive and rectify the regrets and do BSmith + Butcher to Robson + Ford

Camo123 wrote:Final R1 team - 835, 6313 rank

BSmith
Haas Tapine Murray
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
Thompson Alamoti
Miller CNK Warbrick

Butcher Boyd Hopgood Trindall
Doorey Sloan Katoa HSS

Pros: All guns provided good scoring at expectations except for Tapine, Cheap WFB performed
Cons: Roosters mid rangers were poor
Regrets: Had Robson most of preseason (& Ford) and removed late. Ultimately got Murray, CNK and Trindall over Robson, Ford and TMM which was slight points advantage but negative in Trindall job security

Trade thoughts: With Butcher not suspended & assuming Thompson keeps spot can either play safe with no trades or go aggressive and rectify the regrets and do BSmith + Butcher to Robson + Ford

Great score bro

I've personally gone To'o + Smith > Carty + Robson, really liked the look of Robson.

Whether that sways you towards your trade or away, I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that you'll make the right choice, and I promise I won't be offended!

R2: 771 (6111 rank)

Pros: Is dodging most injuries a pro? (Only CNK injured). Luck in trading BSmith out early and switched Ford in to Carty. EMG gaining cash
Cons: Cleary C garbage, loads of underperforming players

Trade out options: Boyd (possibility of drop), CNK (if injured), Cleary (bye, underperforming)
Trade in options: Preston, Bird, Tohu, Moses

As post in main thread, looking at Boyd to Preston (& if CNK out, Bird in)

Camo123 wrote:R2: 771 (6111 rank)

Pros: Is dodging most injuries a pro? (Only CNK injured). Luck in trading BSmith out early and switched Ford in to Carty. EMG gaining cash
Cons: Cleary C garbage, loads of underperforming players

Trade out options: Boyd (possibility of drop), CNK (if injured), Cleary (bye, underperforming)
Trade in options: Preston, Bird, Tohu, Moses

As post in main thread, looking at Boyd to Preston (& if CNK out, Bird in)

Going to pull the trigger on Boyd + CNK to Preston + Bird?

Snatchpato wrote:
Going to pull the trigger on Boyd + CNK to Preston + Bird?

Yeah locked in basically

CNK price rises stalled a bit with the HIA, and he was quite anonymous in attack last week despite solid base (37 average gets him around 40k price rises in 4 weeks - rough average I’d expect is 35-40)

Bird coming off injury and still going above PPM and 50+ is something my CTRs could do with

R3: 840 (3242 rank)

Pros: CTRs, Trade ins returning good scores (including Robson from previous round)
Cons: Hopgood Captain, Warbrick, Sloan left in EMG over Katoa

Trade out targets: Doueihi (change of role?)
Trade in targets: SJ (dominant KM)

Team (44k bank)

Robson
Haas Murray Tapine
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
Bird Alamoti
Miller Thompson Sloan

Hopgood Carty Preston Trindall
Doorey Warbrick Katoa HSS

Watchlist:

Frizell 605k 56BE (-68k) - aim for trade in for Carty/Loiero
Teddy 674k 66BE (-103k) - aim for trade R5/6
Stone/Teague? - Funding cheapie to benefit from Kaufusi 4 weeks?

I like Doueihi to SJ. I'm personally going ARey but it's really close. Team looks really solid and not really any big issues. Primed for a jump into the top 1k this week mate!

R4: 998 (1134 rank)

Pros:Great scoring across the squad including captain
Cons: Poor squad set up ruined me this week. Should have put Warbrick in starting team instead of bench due to early game which prevented me using Trindall as loop or trade out (as Doorey 1st EMG) and meant played Thompson and Sloan (17 & 27)

Trade ins: Doorey to Ford locked in
Trade in targets: Teddy, Hosking
Trade out targets: Thompson, Trindall

With 148k ITB, likely going to be short of meaningful trade for Doorey/Thompson

R5: 1074 (rank 247)

Pros: Almost everything, great captain, great cash gen (+533k across squad)
Cons: HSS is shit (but in #21), Trindall didn’t get on field missing free cash

Trade outs: Carty, Trindall
Trade in options: AKP, Gun WFB (any below Kiraz price), Hosking

Gun WFB + Hosking analysis (max 678k, ordered by price)

Edwards 675k, 52.8, BE 50
- Previous average not extreme gun level, has almost doubled TBs so far this year 
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season 

Manu 672k, 36.5, BE 70
- Will have FB this week and anytime Teddy rested, averages 63 at FB in career 
- Still averages 46 at CTR last year, averages 36.5 in 2 games with sin bin 2023
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season

Latrell 670k, 45.4, BE 77
- Has improved base from 2022, lower attacking stats so far this season with tough draw
- Probably poor pick this week with high BE
- Assuming picked for Origin, would miss 5 games until end of season 

Turbo 652k, 50.5, BE 48
- Average matching career FB average of around 50
- Poor bye schedule if selected for Origin would mean missing 4 games until end of season (but 3 of 4 from 13-16)

Garrick 650k, 49, BE 56
- Seems reliant on tries but may  play FB over Origin period (does Weekes now do this)

Marzhew 628k, 76.5, BE 18
- Would have to think these 2 scores are unsustainable given 40 average last year but is in the mould for gun WFB as winger (high RM, TBs)
- May be tough to cover WFB as also owning Miller on byes 

Teddy 616k, 34.3, BE 76
- Obviously not a pick this week as injured, but seems an obvious buy in a few weeks 
- Misses only 1 extra game for Origin as byes R13 & R19

Hosking 607k, 76.5, BE 14
- Obviously not a WFB but could keep playing 2 of Sloan/Warbrick/Thompson/AKP until Teddy bottoms out. Question is how long can the cheapies manage viable scores (e.g. Sloan in single digits until last 15 mins pretty much)
- If named alongside Martin it may be tempting as I think he may have won job off Garner, ran good lines
- Worst case gains around 60-100k and loses spot

Walsh 596k, 49.8, BE 39
- Is looking amazing on field, but is “only” converting into low 50s
- If/when attacking stats slow can he keep up 50 average 
- If selected for Origin, misses 1 extra game (4 total for rest of season)

At this stage, Manu and Hosking (cheap roulette continuing) are probably my frontrunners. Would be keen for thoughts

Turbo is someone I'm interested in as a R8 buy against the Tigers (after Panthers and Storm games). He's a lock for Origin if fit, so he'll miss R13, R14, R16 and R19 as you've stated. Probably R20 too due to short turnaround from Origin 3, but depends on how Manly are going and if he's needed for the team

Manu you're buying at a peak right now but bye schedule is favourable, I just don't like the thought of that price for him if he's playing CTR mainly (aside from this week)

Camo123 wrote:Gun WFB + Hosking analysis (max 678k, ordered by price)

Edwards 675k, 52.8, BE 50
- Previous average not extreme gun level, has almost doubled TBs so far this year 
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season 

Manu 672k, 36.5, BE 70
- Will have FB this week and anytime Teddy rested, averages 63 at FB in career 
- Still averages 46 at CTR last year, averages 36.5 in 2 games with sin bin 2023
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season

Latrell 670k, 45.4, BE 77
- Has improved base from 2022, lower attacking stats so far this season with tough draw
- Probably poor pick this week with high BE
- Assuming picked for Origin, would miss 5 games until end of season 

Turbo 652k, 50.5, BE 48
- Average matching career FB average of around 50
- Poor bye schedule if selected for Origin would mean missing 4 games until end of season (but 3 of 4 from 13-16)

Garrick 650k, 49, BE 56
- Seems reliant on tries but may  play FB over Origin period (does Weekes now do this)

Marzhew 628k, 76.5, BE 18
- Would have to think these 2 scores are unsustainable given 40 average last year but is in the mould for gun WFB as winger (high RM, TBs)
- May be tough to cover WFB as also owning Miller on byes 

Teddy 616k, 34.3, BE 76
- Obviously not a pick this week as injured, but seems an obvious buy in a few weeks 
- Misses only 1 extra game for Origin as byes R13 & R19

Hosking 607k, 76.5, BE 14
- Obviously not a WFB but could keep playing 2 of Sloan/Warbrick/Thompson/AKP until Teddy bottoms out. Question is how long can the cheapies manage viable scores (e.g. Sloan in single digits until last 15 mins pretty much)
- If named alongside Martin it may be tempting as I think he may have won job off Garner, ran good lines
- Worst case gains around 60-100k and loses spot

Walsh 596k, 49.8, BE 39
- Is looking amazing on field, but is “only” converting into low 50s
- If/when attacking stats slow can he keep up 50 average 
- If selected for Origin, misses 1 extra game (4 total for rest of season)

At this stage, Manu and Hosking (cheap roulette continuing) are probably my frontrunners. Would be keen for thoughts

love the analysis, very interesting to see the prices and breakdowns, I would say that Turbo and walsh are the best options, (bar teddy who will be a steal in a couple of weeks) mainly due to their high workrate, influence on team, and eye test performances, both also play in great attacking teams that will help their stats

Manu, Garrick and marzhew I have issue with as they are wingers or centres, so not as able to get involved and score as high, garrick does have kicking but also relys on being fed, marzhew has the tackle breaks, but plays for a below average team, manu is gun centre, but do you want a gun ctre in you wfb position

Edwards is absolutely smashing it and is one I had never really considered, that is impressive,

latrell I rule out based on his laziness, i prefer consistent performers who have high involvement workrate, I dont think hes played well all year and I dont see him turning it around, there is a lot of subjectivity in that analysis so take it with a pinch of salt,

I guess its whichever you prefer and can handle their various faults, walsh is cheapest if that factors in, but tommy is the scariest not to own,

good luck with your choice!

Shady2K wrote: Turbo is someone I'm interested in as a R8 buy against the Tigers (after Panthers and Storm games). He's a lock for Origin if fit, so he'll miss R13, R14, R16 and R19 as you've stated. Probably R20 too due to short turnaround from Origin 3, but depends on how Manly are going and if he's needed for the team

Manu you're buying at a peak right now but bye schedule is favourable, I just don't like the thought of that price for him if he's playing CTR mainly (aside from this week)

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

love the analysis, very interesting to see the prices and breakdowns, I would say that Turbo and walsh are the best options, (bar teddy who will be a steal in a couple of weeks) mainly due to their high workrate, influence on team, and eye test performances, both also play in great attacking teams that will help their stats

Manu, Garrick and marzhew I have issue with as they are wingers or centres, so not as able to get involved and score as high, garrick does have kicking but also relys on being fed, marzhew has the tackle breaks, but plays for a below average team, manu is gun centre, but do you want a gun ctre in you wfb position

Edwards is absolutely smashing it and is one I had never really considered, that is impressive,

latrell I rule out based on his laziness, i prefer consistent performers who have high involvement workrate, I dont think hes played well all year and I dont see him turning it around, there is a lot of subjectivity in that analysis so take it with a pinch of salt,

I guess its whichever you prefer and can handle their various faults, walsh is cheapest if that factors in, but tommy is the scariest not to own,

good luck with your choice!

Thanks @Shady2K and @GarethEllisIsMyDad

Will have to see what TLT throws up. If I can get up to Kiraz with an option cheaper than AKP he’s seriously on my radar as well. 

AKP is a very interesting buy and hard to know if he’s a trap despite massive negative BE - poor base and maybe JS issues (Maumalo/JFifita)

Camo123 wrote:Gun WFB + Hosking analysis (max 678k, ordered by price)

Edwards 675k, 52.8, BE 50
- Previous average not extreme gun level, has almost doubled TBs so far this year 
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season 

Manu 672k, 36.5, BE 70
- Will have FB this week and anytime Teddy rested, averages 63 at FB in career 
- Still averages 46 at CTR last year, averages 36.5 in 2 games with sin bin 2023
- Will only miss R13 & R19 for rest of season

Latrell 670k, 45.4, BE 77
- Has improved base from 2022, lower attacking stats so far this season with tough draw
- Probably poor pick this week with high BE
- Assuming picked for Origin, would miss 5 games until end of season 

Turbo 652k, 50.5, BE 48
- Average matching career FB average of around 50
- Poor bye schedule if selected for Origin would mean missing 4 games until end of season (but 3 of 4 from 13-16)

Garrick 650k, 49, BE 56
- Seems reliant on tries but may  play FB over Origin period (does Weekes now do this)

Marzhew 628k, 76.5, BE 18
- Would have to think these 2 scores are unsustainable given 40 average last year but is in the mould for gun WFB as winger (high RM, TBs)
- May be tough to cover WFB as also owning Miller on byes 

Teddy 616k, 34.3, BE 76
- Obviously not a pick this week as injured, but seems an obvious buy in a few weeks 
- Misses only 1 extra game for Origin as byes R13 & R19

Hosking 607k, 76.5, BE 14
- Obviously not a WFB but could keep playing 2 of Sloan/Warbrick/Thompson/AKP until Teddy bottoms out. Question is how long can the cheapies manage viable scores (e.g. Sloan in single digits until last 15 mins pretty much)
- If named alongside Martin it may be tempting as I think he may have won job off Garner, ran good lines
- Worst case gains around 60-100k and loses spot

Walsh 596k, 49.8, BE 39
- Is looking amazing on field, but is “only” converting into low 50s
- If/when attacking stats slow can he keep up 50 average 
- If selected for Origin, misses 1 extra game (4 total for rest of season)

At this stage, Manu and Hosking (cheap roulette continuing) are probably my frontrunners. Would be keen for thoughts

Nice post.

Manu looks the best to me because he's a keeper centre and the one I'd bet on scoring more for the remainder of the year.

My main query is his rhythm right now with the facial injuries over the last few months.