2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Haha, small world! I work with one of the co-creators of 1000minds! I’ve ever used it though. He’s always offered it to me for free, how much time would be involved customizing it for fantasy?

filthridden wrote:

Seen a lot of Warriors promotional material featuring Keighran lately. Not sure what to read into that if anything.

Krump wrote:Wasn't there someone a few years ago who was getting the data on ownership % in the top 100? Arsen maybe?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

TT used to do this. Was very instrumental in my run home in 2013, however Blake Ferguson put an end to that

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Haha. I've always found that whether a player is a pod is too far up the list of considerations which is why I always push back on it. All things being equal it matters but normally all things aren't equal.

Really liked reading some of Matt's stuff particularly his decision making model. I wanted to try to build a model a few years ago when I had access to a decision making tool for work called 1000minds. In the end I was too lazy so I just kept it based on my forecast return and my assessed level of risk. One thing decision making models can do is remove the bias or prejudice we have in built. Someone mentioned Croft, there's some decent reasons to be interested in him, basically he has four bad fantasy games in his career, but those four games came when we all owned him so now people won't touch him. Those decision making models can help avoid some of those inefficiencies.

KalkadoonWarrior wrote:You can bank on Kieghran for the 7 bar injury or off field discretions, the Warriors have always lacked thinkers in their halves since the days of Jones. It’s the direction they’re trying to take and that’s why Johnson is gone. People may say it was salary cap but that’s a joke if you believe he’s worth it. The Warriors believe he isn’t, they’ve been blessed with natural ability and heads up halves for a while but history has shown in a NRL season the teams that have the higher IQ halves are the ones with the trophies.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

I'd definitely engage if someone put it up as a sub-topic of this (like how the Assistant topic is set up)

When this thread is dead I check the Assistant page cause I needs me some crack :bounce:

RNGD Analytics wrote:

Ha. We probably know each other or something.

It is pretty easy. The key thing I'd understanding the decision variables and then how to weight them. That was my main obstacle - how important is a factor like byes.

rhinoceroo wrote:

You think you're keeping, Capewell & Holland all season? I'm not saying they're bad picks, but the people whi win the competition are going to have Mitchell and whoever this year's boom centre is (last year it was Marsters) in their 17 for the last couple of months. I'd be surprised if that boom centre was Holland, and Capewell is only around until Graham gets back. Don't get me wrong, they're not bad picks (I have Capewell) but they're not going to save you trades.

KalkadoonWarrior wrote:You can bank on Kieghran for the 7 bar injury or off field discretions, the Warriors have always lacked thinkers in their halves since the days of Jones. It’s the direction they’re trying to take and that’s why Johnson is gone. People may say it was salary cap but that’s a joke if you believe he’s worth it. The Warriors believe he isn’t, they’ve been blessed with natural ability and heads up halves for a while but history has shown in a NRL season the teams that have the higher IQ halves are the ones with the trophies.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:
Classic - have PM'd you mate. Will catch up for coffee whenever u have the time.

GreenMachine wrote:

I recommend having a play around with Capewell at 14-17. He’s DPP which is gold in the new format and not overly expensive. I’ve built a few teams starting with 14-17 (ie Macca TPJ Capewell Keighran) and it gives such great balance even though you are starting an Allan or Lomax

filthridden wrote:

long term halves are expected to be Harris-Tevita and Turner (looking a wee way down the track) so if anything, I see Keighran making a name for himself in NZ for a couple of years and heading back across the ditch for better career prospects.

filthridden wrote:

long term halves are expected to be Harris-Tevita and Turner (looking a wee way down the track) so if anything, I see Keighran making a name for himself in NZ for a couple of years and heading back across the ditch for better career prospects.

GreenMachine wrote:

He doesn’t cost us much to find out but be interested how much noise (if any) in Burr in your press mate

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I posted the other day a little snippet for a radio interview that Stacey Jones did. Stace said Burr was the fittest in preseason and named him alongside Keighran as the most impressive of the new kids this preseason when asked by the interviewer. I think he's a shot to start the season at lock.Might not hold it for long though if the warriors start poorly but you'd think they give him a few games at least.

KalkadoonWarrior wrote:You can bank on Kieghran for the 7 bar injury or off field discretions, the Warriors have always lacked thinkers in their halves since the days of Jones. It’s the direction they’re trying to take and that’s why Johnson is gone. People may say it was salary cap but that’s a joke if you believe he’s worth it. The Warriors believe he isn’t, they’ve been blessed with natural ability and heads up halves for a while but history has shown in a NRL season the teams that have the higher IQ halves are the ones with the trophies.