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    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:35 pm

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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:40 pm

    Thought I'd drag this over to the next thread as it's a good post with many talking points. I personally agree with a lot but not all of it.

    @mattnz wrote:I find the discussion of PPM to be interesting.

    A broader view of what the different factors we are looking at when determining who are good candidates for our team is also worth discussing.

    For me, the primary one is being under-valued, I am not looking to bring in a solid gun just because they are a solid gun, I have to see a reason for them to be undervalued and that they should out-score their current price.

    The following are the key determinants I see of whether someone makes it into my team, I have ended up creating a points ranking system that has helped me to rank players to bring in based on:

    - Change in team role, for example was playing centre, now in 2nd row or fullback, which both tend to score better

    - Expected change in minutes, which I tend to use PPM as a guide for, with a slight reduction in PPM as minutes increase.

    - If a position is hard to fill, I give it greater importance to spend money on it, than others that have many options. This year I have prioritized Centers, Halves and WFB as key areas worth spending on, as the forwards have many great options that all provide value.

    - PODs - I personally prefer to have a POD in my team, rather than a player everyone else has. The theory is that if your goal is to win outright, the more differentiated your team is from everyone elses the better.

    - Injury - If a player had injuries last season that impacted their scoring but are unlikely to be an issue for them this year, then they are worth looking at as undervalued. Haas, Smith, Arrow and Matterson are good examples this year.

    - Form change - I actually have a negative score in my ranking system for relying on form change for a player. I would rather stack my team with multiple increased minutes guys relying on their PPM being close to what they had on lower minutes, than relying on form to change. For me that has removed a number of players that others are including, like Morgan, Bird, Carty, Elgey. It is not a reliable way to choose players. The last couple of years applying this principle would keep you away from guys like JBrom, hoping they get back to their best.

    - ISP scoring - I have done a lot of research and deliberately selected players that killed it in ISP last season but may not have the starting price to reflect it. It is also keeping me away from guys that may get a start but scored really badly in ISP. I saw an article recently talking up Cooper Johns as a potential starter for Melbourne at some point, in QLD cup he averaged 16.3.

    - Who they have around them that can make them better players. Deliberately added SJs winger (also for some of the factors above in that case).

    - Sub-gun players - these are my favourites. If you can find a player that is priced 10 points less than gun status in their position and you expect them to reach gun status as a keeper for the season, they are a must have. Both saves you salary cap and no need to trade them all season. To me they are the most important finds to add to your team.

    - Captain - You need 1 or 2 players that you can rely on consistently throughout the year for big scores to name as captain each week. I want my captain to also be under-valued. You don't want to have a sub-par captain and be missing 10 points a week until you can upgrade them.

    - Plays first bye - Having players that play the first bye help you to save trades leading into the bye. The only caution here is that you don't want players that need to be traded before the first bye to upgrade them, just before round 12. Sub-gun value players that play the first bye are gold!

    - Don't play origin - Not playing either bye makes origin players less valuable.

    - Role uncertainty - If a player is named round 1 to start, but other players are due back in a few rounds that are likely to take their spot, don't bother with them. Example last season was Ligi Sao.

    - Bottom price bargains - You need to work out who the best of the <$250k guys are and stack your team with all those that make sense, then see how much that leaves you with to fill out the rest of your team with.

    - Duals - Get as many of them as you can, they provide flexibility and can save you trades during the season.

    - Maximum points value - Work out the expected scores of everyone in your team together to maximize it. Sometimes it is worth allowing lower scores in certain positions to maximize them in others.

    - Non-playing reserves - NPRs should have very little money spent on them. They are purely there as cash cows. Putting someone like Egan or Bird in as NPR is leaving points on the table each week, that you could have used the extra money for somewhere else.

    Through having a list of ranked players in order, it has helped me to determine which players are better than others, for the way that I want to play the game this season, with much greater clarity than before I created a ranking system.

    When we hit TLT, I expect that many of the mid rangers I have identified will need to be replaced with a bottom dollar player, as more of them come out of the woodwork, and because of that i will be adding more sub-guns. Seeing guys like Arrow and Matterson who currently aren't in my draft team, getting added at TLT when I firm things up.
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:47 pm

    Can't work out how to post gifs Sad the links never work.. is there a certain site?
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:49 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:Can't work out how to post gifs Sad the links never work.. is there a certain site?

    right click the image and select copy image address. Then select insert image and paste the url.
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    Post by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:50 pm

    1. Go to giphy.com
    2. Click a gif
    3. Click copy link
    4. Copy GIF link
    5. Click Insert Image on our page
    6. Paste the URL
    7. Send
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:50 pm

    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5 Tenor
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:51 pm

    Thanks guys <3
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:03 pm

    On POD's, if you have a bunch of POD's and they don't fire, you're fucked. If your POD's do fire, they won't be POD's for very long.

    Also there could be 30 guns with over 10% ownership but no one can have all of them, you'll only have a handful to start the year. It doesn't factor into my thinking at all really. Once I've selected them on merit, I'll take a peak at ownership and if it's low it's a bonus but has zero influence on my selection.

    And you have to ask yourself, if no one else is picking a guy, maybe it's for a reason. It's pretty arrogant to assume you are just smarter than everyone else.

    Steve Nicholls summed it up better:

    "A good team trumps PODs

    My final side included three players with less than 10% ownership: Adam Reynolds (5.6%), Cam McInnes (7.4%) and Tristan Sailor (1.4%). You certainly wouldn’t call any of those three game changers down the tail end of the season. Despite that absence of PODs I went from 200th in round 19 to 10th in round 25. How did I make up that sort of ground without PODs? I had basically everybody that was good. Of the best 17 fantasy players available in round 25 I had 15 of them. I was only missing Blake Ferguson (I had Marsters) and Ryan James (I was loopholing with Arrow, Reynolds or Sam Burgess). Of the best 17 players from round 18 onwards I had 10 but the list of players I didn’t have includes players like Hopoate, Hayne and Tevaga who weren’t on many fantasy teams during this period. Coming out of Origin there were really only two players I felt could hurt me, Martin Taupau and James Tedesco and I added upgraded to Taupau and added Tedesco for an injured Ponga. Just get the best players and you’ll improve ranks, don’t worry about PODs."
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    Post by Random on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:16 pm

    I will be on night shifts the next couple nights and should get ample downtime. So post up your teams in the Assistant Coach area and I will try and review them all.

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f11-assistant-coach

    Also remember to add [R4R] to your post to encourage others to review your team in return for you reviewing theirs.
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:19 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:On POD's, if you have a bunch of POD's and they don't fire, you're fucked. If your POD's do fire, they won't be POD's for very long.

    Yeah this was my thinking but without the evidence. If you had the best 21 players you'd win.

    But perhaps the POD argument applies to players like Tevaga and ARey types? More like under the radar guns
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:27 pm

    @Rapture_NRL wrote:

    Yeah this was my thinking but without the evidence. If you had the best 21 players you'd win.

    But perhaps the POD argument applies to players like Tevaga and ARey types? More like under the radar guns

    It could just as easily apply to that guy priced at 40 becoming a gun. Like @mattnz said those guys are gold. But history tells us it's hard to do though therefore it's risky. And the risk could explain the low ownership. Not a bad thing, just know what's going on there. Selecting those guys could be gold but not because they're POD's but because of the high risk and high reward when it pays off. That's where those WAG's teams are good, selecting all these "POD's" but not because they are PODS per se but because they are all high risk high reward.
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    Post by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:32 pm

    Does anyone know if the spreadsheets are accessible via Google Sheets?
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    Post by Milchy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:45 pm

    I also think PODs are a waste. 

    If you think a player is worth it, and he happens to have low ownership, that's one thing, and you shouldn't change this. Deliberately selecting a lesser player in the hope he scores better than the superior player you are ignoring is bad long term strategy.

    It's fine in DFS Comps, where the chance to jump ahead of the pack can be worth the risk. Bit over the course of the season the better player will win out.

    Personally, I don't think they're is any reason to look at ownership in initial teams. Late season, the teams at the top will want to keep an eye on who the other top teams have , but I would not start with a player for that reason
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    Post by Milchy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:49 pm

    There are many ways to play this game  but I don't think any of them involve finding a guy  priced under 40 who you think will score 50+, and then not picking that player.

    The trick is in actually getting your player analysis right in the first place
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:54 pm

    @Milchy wrote:There are many ways to play this game  but I don't think any of them involve finding a guy  priced under 40 who you think will score 50+, and then not picking that player.

    The trick is in actually getting your player analysis right in the first place

    Hard to disagree with that. Easier said than done though.
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    Post by my tv broke on Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:56 pm

    Just posting this for the sake of discussion. This is a list of the top money makers in the first 6 rounds last year.

    I guess an interesting thing to note is that 25 of those 40 were over 300k. But its probably meaningless, as the majority of players getting a game are over 300k to start the year. A cheap cash cow is pretty easy to identify, the mid range cow is tougher to spot (albeit seemingly plenty on offer this year)

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    Post by my tv broke on Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:52 pm

    On the topic of PODs, I don't particularly like the term, and a player won't be a POD for very long if he's scoring well. There may be some merit to picking a "POD" towards the end of the year, but IMO, its more about getting lucky and avoiding an injury, or a guy who gets rested, more than pure scoring. Here are the top players by "last 5 average" from 2018 (just gonna have to ignore aitkens/drinkwater.) + some analysis, which I've hidden behind spoiler, as its dribble.

    Top last 5 averages:

    Halves - DCE and Cleary were the best halves to have in the run home, and behind them are Milford, and SJ. So, Milford was a "good" "POD", but having him over the other three more popular players wouldn't really net you any benefit.

    Hookers - Cook and McInnes, followed by Friend and Smith. I guess Smith was a little quieter than people would have hoped, so if you went Mcinnes instead, you could of netted an extra 20 points  over the last 5 rounds...

    WFB - Teddy, Tommy T, and RTS were owned by most. Valentine Holmes came home strongly, and if you jumped on him from say, RTS, you would have done quite well for yourself.

    FRF/2RF - Josh Papalii averaged 59, the second highest in the last 5 rounds of all FRF/2RFs, behind only Jakey T. Beyond those two, we had Crichton, Tapine, N Brown, Frizell, Taupau, Lane, Ah Mau, Fifita, Harris, Guerra, Taumalolo, Cooper, Ma'u, James and JDB, in order of average.... Jake T was an absolute standout, but after that, there was only 7 points difference in average, between Crichton and JDB, at either end of the above list.. its hard to say there would have been any benefit in picking a POD over the high ownership guys in frf/2rf

    Centres - there aren't even any pure centres in that list. What a junk position.

    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5 2018_l10

    In summary, I don't think PODs would of really made much difference to your team. If anything, you probably were worse off. The key was having trades, and being able to get all the best scorers in at the right time in the run home.


    Last edited by my tv broke on Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by Milchy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:55 pm

    Nice list mtb. Interesting things I picked from it. 

    The top few cows made a lot of coin in a short space of time, but it drops off quickly. Also have to jump on the right missed cows  Getting Issako or Kikau late was still a good move. If you picked up Phillip Sami after missing the first couple of weeks, not sure it works and up such a good deal.

    Of those listed, AFB is the only one that strikes me as a PPM king player.
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    Post by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:10 pm

    I think it has been posted but Morgan averaged 55.0 in 15 games without thurston excluding one injury game where he got 24 in 39mins. However, what hasn't been mentioned is that he only scored above 50 4 times out of those 15 games without a try. He'll still be in my team though, it's just something I think worth considering.

    Also, Edwards averaged 48.54 in 2017 with 1 try in 13 games, excluding an injury affected 10 in 40mins


    Last edited by Alfie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:13 pm

    @Alfie wrote:I think it has been posted but Morgan averaged 55.0 in 15 games without thurston excluding one injury game where he got 24 in 39mins. However, what hasn't been mentioned is that he only scored above 50 4 times out of those 15 games without a try. He'll still be in my team though, it's just something I think worth considering.
    Also, Edwards averaged 48.54 in 2017 with 1 try in 13 games, excluding an injury affected 10 in 40mins

    One try in 13 games from the fullback of a top 4 contender was one of my reasons behind picking him to start last year. Was going fantastic until another injury. Back on the horse for another crack this year

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