NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 16 - Tommy Talau has arrived... A year too late.

TU Taylan 636k (wary of early bye with Cleary)
TD Cobbo 596k

my team is a bit of a rough read this week with Kini AND Galvin starting. the bench doesnt look much better too. might need to hold an honesty session with the squad before kickoff. 200k in the bank though to rage trade silly/hutch next week to something like JC and Curran/Fine

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I think with May you need to consider the upside risk and the downside risk

Upside risk is you are getting a cut price keeper for 574k.

Downside risk he probably averages low 40s, which is about where where he is priced. This is still a very playable score and byes are favourable to hold right up until round 19

Cut priced keepers are the guys that you cannot miss or it will be very costly. If everyone else pays 600k for a final 17 player where you have to pay 800k that takes a few trades and some great cash gen to make up for. I'd be surprised if any team that missed SJ last year ended up anywhere near the top 1000

I feel like the upside risk is well worth possibly burning 2 trades on the downside risk

100% agree.  I missed SJ last year and it was easily my biggest error of ‘23. Missing a cut price keeper has so many negative flow on effects.

I’ve mentally gone through all the reasons May might not be a good trade but I keep coming back to “I don’t want to make the same SJ mistake”.

(Being $1k short of Flanagan to May last week after seeing May named to start also sucked)

my tv broke wrote:

I really want to get curran instead of lussick.

This might be one of those decisions where i should just grab the player i want instead of wondering what is the absolute best well thpught out decision

Could get both by skipping galvin, its crossed mind that my team needs a points injection more than a cash one rn

I’m going for points over cash this week (or at least a bit of both). The Galvinator can come in next week.

my tv broke wrote:

I really want to get curran instead of lussick.

This might be one of those decisions where i should just grab the player i want instead of wondering what is the absolute best well thpught out decision

Could get both by skipping galvin, its crossed mind that my team needs a points injection more than a cash one rn

I'm getting both and waiting for next week to move Hutch to Galvin. Still a little wary of a tigers player, and as someone else said, feels likely all 3 move similar amounts this week, so would rather the safer picks out of the 3

Reklaw wrote:

Curran
Mann
RTS
Robson (missed you already had him)
Turbo
Hunt
Api
Papalii
Cobbo

Definitely wouldn’t advise a centre with that sort of spend this early so that rules out RTS and Cobbo

Gun to head I think would lean Curran from that list which looks like maybe your first instinct: think he’ll be starting soon enough and getting enough minutes meantime anyway

my tv broke wrote:

I really want to get curran instead of lussick.

This might be one of those decisions where i should just grab the player i want instead of wondering what is the absolute best well thpught out decision

Could get both by skipping galvin, its crossed mind that my team needs a points injection more than a cash one rn

Reasonable chance Galvin could still be under $300k next week, or perhaps just over it (Or maybe he banners and costs a fortune)

Either way, he'll still be affordable if you want to jump on.

I'll probably get Lussick to go with the Termaynator, but guys like Curran (or even Mann) are potential as well

I think Lussick is the better pick though. Curran has a similar vibe to Hosking at times, where his job security doesn't necessarily match his fantasy output (AKA the Rhys Martin effect)

my tv broke wrote:

I really want to get curran instead of lussick.

This might be one of those decisions where i should just grab the player i want instead of wondering what is the absolute best well thpught out decision

Could get both by skipping galvin, its crossed mind that my team needs a points injection more than a cash one rn

I'm in the same camp, going to let the gut decide. I'd rather a pick go bad that I decided on rather than be shitty I listened to everyone else

my tv broke wrote:

I really want to get curran instead of lussick.

This might be one of those decisions where i should just grab the player i want instead of wondering what is the absolute best well thpught out decision

Could get both by skipping galvin, its crossed mind that my team needs a points injection more than a cash one rn

Yeah, I would love to grab Curran. Top of my list for next week, I reckon hes the same as May. Will just keep punching out 50s in 50-60 odd minutes whether hes starting or on the bench. Has the pedigree and is clearly one of their better forwards.

But as a Grant owner I can't pass on Lussick with the R4 bye unless I chase Koro. Pretty hard to pass on Galvin too. At least another week will hopefully mean no injuries for the Dogs for once and we can get a look at normal rotations

Reklaw wrote:

Yeah, I would love to grab Curran. Top of my list for next week, I reckon hes the same as May. Will just keep punching out 50s in 50-60 odd minutes whether hes starting or on the bench. Has the pedigree and is clearly one of their better forwards.

But as a Grant owner I can't pass on Lussick with the R4 bye unless I chase Koro. Pretty hard to pass on Galvin too. At least another week will hopefully mean no injuries for the Dogs for once and we can get a look at normal rotations  

Another week of normal rotations until the team gets ripped apart for not winning another game

Jumping Marlin wrote:

100% agree.  I missed SJ last year and it was easily my biggest error of ‘23.  Missing a cut price keeper has so many negative flow on effects.

I’ve mentally gone through all the reasons May might not be a good trade but I keep coming back to “I don’t want to make the same SJ mistake”.

(Being $1k short of Flanagan to May last week after seeing May named to start also sucked)

Haha, yep, I always make a couple of notes of things I learnt in a season and at the end of last year it was definitely to not make the SJ mistake again. I actually doubled up last year, passing on both SJ and Horse. Both absolute killers. Trying hard to avoid same mistakes again this year. Goodness knows there’s plenty of new ones to make.

Like bringing Seyfarth in last week.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

All this is not to say May is a must have. But you better be right if you disagree. If you don't get him and he keeps averaging mid 50s it probably costs your season

That’s extreme. I won’t argue this too hard because you’re one of the smartest minds in the game and always have been, but you’re addressing this in a vacuum or in the case of May and fantasy communities in an echo chamber.

Replace May with Lussick, Curran or Cotter…

Same (valid point), only I would say route to points looking more guaranteed the others based on looking at what is around them and potentially a threat to their mins.

Why are we not considering Hosking to the debate? People will say because Elliott whitehead is back? I will fade on that reason but then also Seems insane. He’s an absolute machine and gun priced at cut price… we better not get this one wrong because he’s back on the bench as he’s far more dangerous points wise. They both look like will wear jersey 16.

The point is valid but it’s very heavy handed to be so geared towards one player. Nothing you do or don’t do with May will make or break your season imo. He simply doesn’t deserve that much power yet

Will be an easier season if he remains a 50 avg player for sure.

Just make sure to find another one if not going that way

my tv broke wrote:Turns out I can't get both Curran and Lussick this week since all my trade outs aren't worth that much money. Unless I punt Hosking this week, which I'm hesitant to do.

He needs to be 2 more weeks minimum hold.

Toothlessshark wrote:

Another week of normal rotations until the team gets ripped apart for not winning another game

Fair point, Bulldogs will lose a lot and change things around. I have a feeling Curran and Mann will be starting sooner rather than later. Cant wait to put out the Salmon fire

Shady2K wrote:TU Taylan 636k (wary of early bye with Cleary)
TD Cobbo 596k

Didn’t expect this to be as one sided as it is

GreenMachine wrote:Why are we not considering Hosking to the debate? People will say because Elliott whitehead is back? I will fade on that reason but then also Seems insane. He’s an absolute machine and gun priced at cut price… we better not get this one wrong because he’s back on the bench as he’s far more dangerous points wise. They both look like will wear jersey 16.

Hosking is on my sell radar because he is going to be so expensive that he may as well become a keeper with job security or a fat pile of cash. He could play his way into a more secure role, he could get play time off the back of injury, he could score huge points off the bench, but that is all hypothetical next to Hynes's easy next few matchups, Teddy looking like he is in form or JBrailey being cheap as fuck and the money being used to upgrade Salmon to a bigger fish or something along those lines.

I sold him relatively early in his peak last year and didn't regret it. Love him, started with him, but not afraid to ditch him

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:

Hosking is on my sell radar because he is going to be so expensive that he may as well become a keeper with job security or a fat pile of cash. He could play his way into a more secure role, he could get play time off the back of injury, he could score huge points off the bench, but that is all hypothetical next to Hynes's easy next few matchups, Teddy looking like he is in form or JBrailey being cheap as fuck and the money being used to upgrade Salmon to a bigger fish or something along those lines.

I sold him relatively early in his peak last year and didn't regret it. Love him, started with him, but not afraid to ditch him

Think it’s the right move btw given the cash he will generate in 4 rounds, just being provocative as no one screams cut price keeper potential more than him, but timing is off