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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

    mickspicks
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    Post by mickspicks Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:03 pm

    Anyone running with Tigers players? Tempted by someone like Bula but value elsewhere. Sezer at 447k is tempting too, assuming he's just kicking the shit out of the ball and giving it early to Olam.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:08 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    You still want value where possible in your guns

    Especially if it’s a gun you may sell over Origin

    I disagree. Haas is a premium scorer.

    If you only have one of cleary/hynes then Haas is the next best option, imo. Ie if cleary misses a week or two you can just stick the C on haas and feel good about it

    Yeo is on par with haas i suppose.
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:14 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    You still want value where possible in your guns

    Especially if it’s a gun you may sell over Origin

    Haas is probably the best top tier gun to hold over Origin, his byes are very friendly (16, 19, 24) and he doesn't lose that much even when backing up from Origin.

    Someone like Murray seems to have his minutes managed much more over Origin (and Haas makes better use of lower mins when he does have that happen) and you effectively have to sell him over Origin due to his worse bye schedule (7, 13, 17).

    I'm personally locking in Haas and Cleary as season-long keepers, though those are the only two guys where I'm doing this kind of thing.

    For reference I currently have Robson and Moses over Grant and Hynes to free up money elsewhere
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    Post by mickspicks Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:16 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Haas is probably the best top tier gun to hold over Origin, his byes are very friendly (16, 19, 24) and he doesn't lose that much even when backing up from Origin.

    Someone like Murray seems to have his minutes managed much more over Origin (and Haas makes better use of lower mins when he does have that happen) and you effectively have to sell him over Origin due to his worse bye schedule (7, 13, 17).

    I'm personally locking in Haas and Cleary as season-long keepers, though those are the only two guys where I'm doing this kind of thing.

    For reference I currently have Robson and Moses over Grant and Hynes to free up money elsewhere

    If you've got Haas, Cleary, Robson and Moses I'm super interested in the rest of your team!
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    Post by Obbeats Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:18 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    I disagree. Haas is a premium scorer.

    If you only have one of cleary/hynes then Haas is the next best option, imo. Ie if cleary misses a week or two you can just stick the C on haas and feel good about it

    Yeo is on par with haas i suppose.

    Let's say you had JDB (who arguably has some value in him) instead of Haas, and in an early week Cleary is out you may end up with 6-8 less points on your captaincy choice , but in return you have an extra 90k to spend on another position for an extra 6.5 points (according to the 13750 magic number). So maybe 2.5 points you lose out on and in return you get a better opportunity to make some cap. I think that is worth it to be honest.
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    Post by mickspicks Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:19 pm

    Obbeats wrote:

    Let's say you had JDB (who arguably has some value in him) instead of Haas, and in an early week Cleary is out you may end up with 6-8 less points on your captaincy choice , but in return you have an extra 90k to spend on another position for an extra 6.5 points (according to the 13750 magic number). So maybe 2.5 points you lose out on and in return you get a better opportunity to make some cap. I think that is worth it to be honest.

    Isn't Flanno looking to lessen JDB minutes? He should probably play 60-65. If he's throwing offloads then there's value.
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    Post by Obbeats Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:27 pm

    mickspicks wrote:

    Isn't Flanno looking to lessen JDB minutes? He should probably play 60-65. If he's throwing offloads then there's value.

    I was using JDB as an example there to illustrate a point and need to stress that what I said was purely theoretical. If one were to play a theoretically optimal Strat you would likely not even start with Cleary or Hynes and seek maximum value from every player in your team over the first 10 weeks to get a higher salary cap than everyone else and transition to a full keeper team several weeks before everyone else, but committing to this strat is probably not wise as it is high risk high reward (in other words only worth it if every pick makes you money and you make no bad picks - which won't happen).

    Edit: I guess that is the guts of the game - what is your risk profile?  More fairly priced guns = blue chip stocks - consistent and predictable results.
    Chasing value everywhere = low market cap or emerging industry stocks - higher ceiling but lower floor depending on your "luck".


    Last edited by Obbeats on Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:39 pm; edited 2 times in total
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:29 pm

    Obbeats wrote:

    Let's say you had JDB (who arguably has some value in him) instead of Haas, and in an early week Cleary is out you may end up with 6-8 less points on your captaincy choice , but in return you have an extra 90k to spend on another position for an extra 6.5 points (according to the 13750 magic number). So maybe 2.5 points you lose out on and in return you get a better opportunity to make some cap. I think that is worth it to be honest.

    Using this example, essentially Murray + Cotter and Haas + Tatola are the same price (Haas + Tatola about 10k cheaper)

    Or being able to use the 100k to upgrade from a dogshit CTR
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    Post by Shady2K Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:30 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    You still want value where possible in your guns

    Especially if it’s a gun you may sell over Origin

    Agree somewhat

    Something I'm juggling with is Haas + Robson or Murray + Grant

    Haas/Grant being guns with next to no value while Robson/Murray should have 5~ points of value
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    Post by Aardvark Ratnick Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:45 pm

    My cojones arent big enough to start without Haas and Cleary.
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    Post by Honey Badger Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:46 pm

    Burbo two tries so far in their trial
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    Post by Obbeats Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:48 pm

    Aardvark Ratnick wrote:My cojones arent big enough to start without Haas and Cleary.

    I am starting with Cleary as my only fairly valued player. Every other position I want to earn money from. That's where my risk profile threshold lies.

    Also want to caveat my input to strategy is informed more so by game theory than actually playing fantasy as I am a novice to this.


    Last edited by Obbeats on Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by my tv broke Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:57 pm

    Obbeats wrote:

    Let's say you had JDB (who arguably has some value in him) instead of Haas, and in an early week Cleary is out you may end up with 6-8 less points on your captaincy choice , but in return you have an extra 90k to spend on another position for an extra 6.5 points (according to the 13750 magic number). So maybe 2.5 points you lose out on and in return you get a better opportunity to make some cap. I think that is worth it to be honest.

    If you can but a guy that scores as well as haas, for less than haas, then youd but them 

    I dont think those guys exist. Thats all im really saying

    Theres 19 other spots to find value
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:02 pm

    Honey Badger wrote:Burbo two tries so far in their trial
    Make it a hat trick Manly team pretty strong whilst we are playing third stringers.
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    Post by Shady2K Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:05 pm

    Obbeats wrote:

    I am starting with Cleary as my only fairly valued player. Every other position I want to earn money from. That's where my risk profile threshold lies.

    Also want to caveat my input to strategy is informed more so by game theory than actually playing fantasy as I am a novice to this.

    It’s basically best scorers v value

    If you don’t start with Haas then it’s a gamble that he falls off somewhat to 2022 scores and averages 56-57. Or just buy him at value now, assuming he’s a low to mid 60s guy for the year
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    Post by L-Jimmy Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:06 pm

    Obbeats wrote:

    I am starting with Cleary as my only fairly valued player. Every other position I want to earn money from. That's where my risk profile threshold lies.

    Also want to caveat my input to strategy is informed more so by game theory than actually playing fantasy as I am a novice to this.

    Awesome, another economist!

    But all the game theorists I know are just micro/theory weirdos, with as much policy/commercial relevance as a plastic flamingo. Remember when the UK government messed up the spectrum auction by listening to game folks?

    Yeah. Same thing here.

    Applied world has much variance. Buying cautiously at the initial point has a lot to like.

    I'll start Haas.
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    Post by White Lightning Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:10 pm

    just watched highlights of dolphins thrashing some team but tesi niu looked bigger & very sharp & bostock looks classy & very quick.
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    Post by Krump Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:29 pm

    Wasn’t Haas dealing with an ac issue half of last year?
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:39 pm

    Krump wrote:Wasn’t Haas dealing with an ac issue half of last year?

    That was in 2022

    Had a game suspension for hip drop and missed some time with ankle injury at end of Origin
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    Post by mattnz Sun Feb 11, 2024 5:13 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    He’s a keeper though with keepers I don’t think as much about value as they’re set and forget like you say. . Haas starts the year big often too if you don’t have him and he takes off you could be left behind. No early byes either like a Murray does. Brisbane run isn’t easy early they’ll play Haas big mins


    A gun that doesn't play origin, that you can keep all season, with just 5 points of value is an ideal target if you can identify them.

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