2023 Mrbrownstone - New and Improved 2024 Edition

Here's what I've settled (ish) on post TLT

Smith
Haas Tapine Hopgood
E Butcher Garner
(C)leary Doueihi
Alamoti HSS
Turbo Miller Warbrick

Boyd E Katoa Loiero Ford

TMM Doorey I Katoa Talau

Going player by player:

Smith: Not worth the risk to not start with him. I think absolute worst case he holds value, gives playable 40s, useful dual, and everyone has him. Best case he's a cutprice keeper hooker or close to.

Haas: Similar to Smith, I expect worst case is he holds price, best case is he's undervalued as a potential 60+ scorer when he's fit again. Haas priced at 56 is too good to pass up.

Tapine: Starting to go a bit cold on him and considering Cotter instead, but it's an upside play. Priced at 55, averaged 63 when he played 50+ minutes last year - he should be the man in this pack with Papa injured and getting on, and Elliott moving on. Don't see who else plays those minutes but who knows with Sticky.

Hopgood: Second easiest pick after BSmith, don't know how you don't have him. Feels like the kinda guy who at worst gives you playable scores til mid season when you upgrade to a proper gun, best case he's a gun all year.

E Butcher: When he's played over 50 minutes in the past he averages 57. It's a risk and a small sample size, that's too tempting to pass up. Reasonable job security in a good team and his game seems suited to fantasy.

Garner: People seem to have gone cold on him on here, but he's barely left my team. Priced at 33, historical average of 46 in the second row and now playing for the back to back premiers. Too hard to pass that up imo.

Cleary: Safest captain in the game with Hynes injured. Pretty much must have.

Doueihi: Career average of 61.6 at 5/8, priced at 53. Rare to find a potential gun with that much value to start the season, hard to pass up.

HSS/Alamoti: Not willing to spend up at centre, these two seem like the best/safest options. As with any cheap centre there's a chance it all goes tits up and they both start with a couple of 20s.

Turbo: Priced at 44, averages 52 at FB over 50 mins. Similar to Doueihi, hard to find a potential gun with that much value. Upside that he goes back to somewhere near 2021 scoring. I think injury is the biggest threat, if he's fit he at minimum holds price and at best thre's decent value. May still find a way to turn him into Teddy.

Miller: Don't fully trust it, but the other option is CNK and I don't really trust him either. I think he has a higher upside than CNK so gambling on that + with 26% ownership would rather have him and he fails than not have him and he guns it.

Warbrick: Base price starting Storm winger, too hard to pass up. As with any rookie back low scores are a risk, could easily be a dud but the upside is too big to ignore.

Boyd: One of the easiest picks along with BSmith, Hopgood, and Cleary. Goal kicking, should do most of the general play kicking next to Foran, averaged 48 at HB to end the year last year, and incredibly handy dual.

E Katoa: Priced at 31, averages 42 in the second row, now playing for the Storm. Hard to pass up.

Loiero: Not sold on this pick at all, could easily change it but just don't really see anyone I prefer in the price bracket. Willing to risk it on a Storm starting back row who averages 45 in the position from a limited sample size. JS is a risk with Sims I think.

Ford: See above, not sold, but don't see anyone I prefer in the price bracket. JS a risk with Curran around, but the dual is handy and he has a history of scoring well when he gets the minutes with an average of 42 when playing 40+ mins.

TMM: Handy dual, I like him better than Sloan/Thompson/Perham in terms of scoring potential and JS. Averages 33 at 5/8 but those stats are from a while ago.

Doorey: Base starting edge in last years finalists, hard to pass up. Like his JS better than Carty. Averaged 29 in the second row when playing 30+ minutes, not inspiring but enough to plod his way to 10 points of value. Ideally he improves playing for a better team.

Talau: Cheap dual CTR/WFB cover, averages 27 at centre for 10 points of value and decent JS. Not an inspiring pick at all but he'll do.

I Katoa: I'm getting Amone vibes a bit, but think I'll just go with the pack on this one with 42% ownership. Seems to have won the spot over Milf on merit, but I imagine SOS does the majority of kicking and attacking stats might be hard to come by.

Players who I don't own that I'm concerned about/keeping a close eye on. Cbf doing a full analysis here, more just writing this down so I can keep track of it somewhere:

- Teddy, want to find a way to upgrade Turbo to him but struggling not to throw off the rest of the balance.

- Stone, want to see it before taking the plunge. Easy switch from Ford if he gets the role.

- I Thompson, worried about JS but could easily be a switch from TMM who I'm not super convinced by.

- Burton, kind of guy who could easily elevate to a 60+ average. If he's showing signs of that need to keep a close eye on him.

- Blore, JS too risky. If he keeps the spot will jump on quickly.

- Luke, as above, easy switch from a failing cow if he gets the rumoured role.

- Stefano, don't trust that he gets the minutes with Klemmer, Joe O, Twal and Bateman to return. If he does easy swtich from Loiero who I'm not convinced by, especially if Sims comes back.

- CNK, want to see signs he's back to 40s scoring before jumping on, but a switch from Miller on the cards if he does.

- Kenny, want to see it first. Straight on if he gets the minutes.

- Gilbert, someone has to get the big minutes in that Dolphins pack, will be keeping a close eye there.

- Preston, too much good EDG value to start with him but keeping a close eye.

- Ponga, he's underpriced compared to his ceiling but want to see how he goes in the halves first.

- Wilton, easy switch if Garner/Katoa/E Butcher doesn't live up to expectations, need to see the rotation first.

- Keppie, if he's actually playing decent minutes at lock will jump straight on, but I don't trust it.

- Hastings, I'm interested but not interested enough to get him over Doueihi.

- Tino, if he starts as he ended last year he'll be a must have, keeping a close eye in R1.

- Levi/Hodgson, lumping these two in because I just can't trust either, but there's potential value there.

- NAS, there's usually a 600k guy who elevates to elite gun status and everyone misses (iPap, Joe O), could be his year but I need to see it first

- Tohu, if he gets back to anywhere near 2020/21 scoring he's well underpriced. Could easily on his second year back from injury. Too risky to start with.

- Turuva, don't see how you could possibly start with him, but ideally he starts slowly, sheds a bit of cash, and then goes on a run of tries on that Panthers wing where there's plenty to go around

- CHN/RFM - see them in the same bracket, both underpriced with the right role but I'd need to see it.

- Curran, ideal scenario is he has a few low minute bench games, sheds some cash, then back to gun scoring. One to keep an eye on if he's back to starting at some point.

- M King/Sutton, there's minutes to go around in that Dogs middle with TPJ and Thompson out, need to see who gets them first

- Egan, if the Warriors continue with no hooker on the bench and Egan playing 80 he's probably a buy but I'd have to see it first. Too risky with Jazz coming back and Lussick hanging around.

Love the breakdown of players and your thoughts.

Not sure why you don't trust Hodgson as there isn't another HOK on that bench. I'm not sure if I'm sold on Warbrick as I would rather a cheap CTR option which there are plenty over a Winger any day.

The only knock on Garner is a lot of his stats come from tackles and he will be playing in a team with a lot more possession so his points could stagnate a little if he doesn't get the big offensive stats that Kikau would get. As an example Garner made 28 tackles average per game while Kikau had an average of 24. Combine that with a half who actually likes to tackle and does a good job of it in Cleary he could be relied on less in that aspect. I also don't trust Ricky with forward pack rotations.

RandomSil wrote:Love the breakdown of players and your thoughts.

Not sure why you don't trust Hodgson as there isn't another HOK on that bench. I'm not sure if I'm sold on Warbrick as I would rather a cheap CTR option which there are plenty over a Winger any day.

The only knock on Garner is a lot of his stats come from tackles and he will be playing in a team with a lot more possession so his points could stagnate a little if he doesn't get the big offensive stats that Kikau would get. As an example Garner made 28 tackles average per game while Kikau had an average of 24. Combine that with a half who actually likes to tackle and does a good job of it in Cleary he could be relied on less in that aspect. I also don't trust Ricky with forward pack rotations.

Thanks for your input mate, appreciate it. With Hodgson it's more a case of waiting to see if he comes back the same player than worrying about someone stealing minutes (although Arthur in 18 is a potential threat), as it is there's probably value there (priced at 37, career average 47.9 at hooker when playing 60+ minutes). But he's 33 coming off a serious injury playing for a new club, that's the part I don't trust. If he looks good this week I'll give him serious consideration.

Fair point re: Garner, I've toyed with a few iterations where he's not in the team, but just can't free up enough cash to upgrade him to anyone worthwhile.

Brilliant analysis love it, you not tempted by getting Grant?

Rabbits21 wrote:Brilliant analysis love it, you not tempted by getting Grant?

Thanks mate. Very tempted by Grant, don't like not owning a gun hooker, but just not sure I'm willing to give up any of the other guns. If I was gonna do it I'd probably swap Tapine to Stefano and Garner to Grant, but not sure I like that better.

RandomSil wrote:Love the breakdown of players and your thoughts.

Not sure why you don't trust Hodgson as there isn't another HOK on that bench. I'm not sure if I'm sold on Warbrick as I would rather a cheap CTR option which there are plenty over a Winger any day.

The only knock on Garner is a lot of his stats come from tackles and he will be playing in a team with a lot more possession so his points could stagnate a little if he doesn't get the big offensive stats that Kikau would get. As an example Garner made 28 tackles average per game while Kikau had an average of 24. Combine that with a half who actually likes to tackle and does a good job of it in Cleary he could be relied on less in that aspect. I also don't trust Ricky with forward pack rotations.

Garner should be out on the left edge as Martin plays on the right with Cleary typically.

I like the thoughts you have man, very similar vibes to my team with a couple of differences. I think once I get Turbo in round 3 our teams will be very similar (especially if Katoa kicks off quickly and I trade him in too!)

Slight amendment, I think this is what I'm settled on now:

Smith
Haas Tapine Ford
E Katoa Loiero
(C)leary Doueihi
HSS Alamoti
Teddy Miller Warbrick

E Butcher Boyd Garner Hopgood

Doorey AKP Talau I Katoa

Swapped Turbo and TMM for Teddy and AKP. I'd like to start with Turbo and think there's value there, but  Teddy's ownership + starting against the Dolphins and Warriors has me spooked. Don't usually like to read too much into matchups, but I think that's a tough one to ignore and there's never really a bad time to own Teddy. I think giving up TMM for AKP to facilitate that is worth it, wasn't super convinced by TMM anyway.

Ideally Miller makes some quick cash and Turbo starts a bit slowly, and that's a priority upgrade early on.

mrbrownstone wrote:Slight amendment, I think this is what I'm settled on now:

Smith
Haas Tapine Ford
E Katoa Loiero
(C)leary Doueihi
HSS Alamoti
Teddy Miller Warbrick

E Butcher Boyd Garner Hopgood

Doorey AKP Talau I Katoa

Swapped Turbo and TMM for Teddy and AKP. I'd like to start with Turbo and think there's value there, but  Teddy's ownership + starting against the Dolphins and Warriors has me spooked. Don't usually like to read too much into matchups, but I think that's a tough one to ignore and there's never really a bad time to own Teddy. I think giving up TMM for AKP to facilitate that is worth it, wasn't super convinced by TMM anyway.

Ideally Miller makes some quick cash and Turbo starts a bit slowly, and that's a priority upgrade early on.

Like it mate. AKP is base and low risk and Titans have a decent draw to start (Tigers, then Dragons twice in 6 rounds) so hopefully he jags some tries and gets his price moving

773 for the round has me sitting around the 30k mark. Obviously far from an ideal start, but I want to focus on the process rather than the outcomes. Player by player breakdown:

B Smith: He won't have an HIA and play most of the game at lock due to other injuries every week. The Roosters also won't be that bad every week. All the reasons he was a good buy initially stand imo, just have to keep the faith. Hopefully this scores a few off and he becomes a bit more of a POD when the scores do come.

Haas: As advertised, was hoping he'd be back to 60+ Haas when injury free. 65 minutes is very pleasing.

Tapine: Not ideal but not panic stations. Raiders spent his entire first stint defending and it was hot as all fuck, tough one for middle forwards. I expect in cooler conditions he plays a few more minutes. 45 ok given the circumstances, hope for some big scores to balance it out.

Ford: One of the players I was most concerned about turned out to be one of the few wins. Was worried about his JS looked great IRL so should be sweet there. Big tick.

EKatoa/Loiero: Both played 80, thought both looked good, 40+ average should be sustainable.

N Cleary: Junk point king strikes again. 49 was a bit meh initially, but 60+ is good from your captain so can't complain.

Doueihi: Hoped he'd be underpriced and score in the 60s, did just that.

HSS/Alamoti: Disappointing scores, but honestly the way their respective games went they did well not to score in single figures imo. Hopefully bigger things to come with an attacking stat or two.

Teddy: A reminder to never buy into match-ups. Disappointed with myself that I did anyway. Never a bad time to own him (hopefully) but disappointing start.

Miller: Scoring 43 in a loss with no attacking stats aside from TBs is fantastic. Tick.

Warbrick: Given how the other cheapie outside backs went his 29 looks like a 60. The Storm won't play the Eels every week and a few tries should come.

E Butcher:  Sin bin was a shit but before that he was on track for a 45-50 type score. Hold.

Garner: Easy trade, didn't get the role. Bye.

Hopgood: Not much to add that hasn't already been said. Was fantastic, looks like a keeper.

Boyd: A tad underwhelming but he got the role with nearly 500km and goal kicking. Bigger scores should follow. One to monitor.

Doorey: With how the other cheapies scored 31 is a big win. Looked good IRL too.

AKP: Always a risk with base price rookie outside backs. If he scored like this in a win how does he go when the Titans are on the back foot. Too cheap to really do anything with so hoping for a try.

Talau: As above, shit scores a risk with base price outside backs.

IKatoa: Got more KMs than I expected about the only positive. Not sure how he scores well. Similar to AKP too cheap to really do much with so hope for better scores or a more obvious cow to come along.


Given all that, Garner is the only obvious trade out. Looking at shipping him off to either CHN or Sutton at this stage. Further tinkering to come though as I really want to find a way to get Tohu.

Didn't really consider CHN all that much, but looked into his edge stats and they're decent. Outlier season in 2021, but other than that his scoring appears to be a solid mid 40s, giving around 9-10 points of value. I think if I didn't already have so many edges I'd jump on that. Sutton is basically the opposite of CHN haha, big plodder. Depends what you need for team composition I guess.

Round 1 Trades

Locking in Garner -> Carty.

One of my big weaknesses in recent years playing has been missing good cows because of 'what ifs' i.e people coming back from injury early or getting dropped next week. I missed May last year for that reason, for example.

With the extra trades this year I'd rather take the risk on making more cash than play it safe with boring slow burns (Sutton was the other trade in option). I'll be more annoyed if Carty makes 180k over the next few weeks and I miss him than if I buy him this week and Lane is back a week early.

If you take the meme of it out, you've got a guy with a historical average of 45 in the second row, who pumped out a 57 in round 1, with a negative BE, priced under 300k, with over 20% ownership to mitigate the risk. The only reason I'm even hesitating is because it's Carty. That's an easy trade any other time.

All aboard. It's party time.

mrbrownstone wrote:Round 1 Trades

Locking in Garner -> Carty.

One of my big weaknesses in recent years playing has been missing good cows because of 'what ifs' i.e people coming back from injury early or getting dropped next week. I missed May last year for that reason, for example.

With the extra trades this year I'd rather take the risk on making more cash than play it safe with boring slow burns (Sutton was the other trade in option). I'll be more annoyed if Carty makes 180k over the next few weeks and I miss him than if I buy him this week and Lane is back a week early.

If you take the meme of it out, you've got a guy with a historical average of 45 in the second row, who pumped out a 57 in round 1, with a negative BE, priced under 300k, with over 20% ownership to mitigate the risk. The only reason I'm even hesitating is because it's Carty. That's an easy trade any other time.

All aboard. It's party time.

Any plans for the cash freed up next week?

mattnz wrote:

Any plans for the cash freed up next week?

Wait and see on likes of Cheese & E Butcher. If they underperform again they'll become become Tohu/Mahoney/Bird if they look the goods again.

Alternately, if I Katoa, AKP et al shit the bed again it may be a case of spreading the cash around a bit more evenly and getting someone like Thompson to sure things up.

mrbrownstone wrote:

Wait and see on likes of Cheese & E Butcher. If they underperform again they'll become become Tohu/Mahoney/Bird if they look the goods again.

Alternately, if I Katoa, AKP et al shit the bed again it may be a case of spreading the cash around a bit more evenly and getting someone like Thompson to sure things up.

Yeah its going to hurt in a few weeks if others are trading their cashies up at $400k and you still have them sitting there

Opening two rounds couldn't have gone too much worse.

Scored 707 on the weekend to blow my rank out to 43114. My worst start to the season by a distance. It's all up from here.

My first impression is Cheese + Ford to Robson and Preston. I like Robson over Mahoney for R13 and a good upcoming draw. I'm also contemplating Cheese + Butcher to Hynes + Preston if named. Bit of a go big or go home play, hope that Hynes has a few big games early before most people have the cash to get him in to help pull my rank back.

Not fully convinced that selling Ford is the play though so lets see what TLT throws up.

mrbrownstone wrote:Opening two rounds couldn't have gone too much worse.

Scored 707 on the weekend to blow my rank out to 43114. My worst start to the season by a distance. It's all up from here.

My first impression is Cheese + Ford to Robson and Preston. I like Robson over Mahoney for R13 and a good upcoming draw. I'm also contemplating Cheese + Butcher to Hynes + Preston if named. Bit of a go big or go home play, hope that Hynes has a few big games early before most people have the cash to get him in to help pull my rank back.

Not fully convinced that selling Ford is the play though so lets see what TLT throws up.

I think that's a pretty good play either way! I'm hoping I can squeeze another week out of Trindall.... though watch Hynes get named in #20 and screw me over....

mrbrownstone wrote:Opening two rounds couldn't have gone too much worse.

Scored 707 on the weekend to blow my rank out to 43114. My worst start to the season by a distance. It's all up from here.

My first impression is Cheese + Ford to Robson and Preston. I like Robson over Mahoney for R13 and a good upcoming draw. I'm also contemplating Cheese + Butcher to Hynes + Preston if named. Bit of a go big or go home play, hope that Hynes has a few big games early before most people have the cash to get him in to help pull my rank back.

Not fully convinced that selling Ford is the play though so lets see what TLT throws up.

I would hold Ford I think he starts when he’s back next week but I guess it’s a tight call.

I've personally traded Egan Butcher out this week mate (can check reasoning in my tracker). Might be an option for you to free up more cash for next week? So Smith + Butch > Robson + Preston with future upgrades to follow. Means you don't have to trade out Ford who still should make decent coin in the next 5-6 weeks, whereas Butcher will take much longer (plus has a bye next week).

Ford (40) = $60k over 3 weeks
Butcher (52) = $60k over 3 weeks

Ford probably more likely? Not sure. Up to you and your team composition of course, but thought I'd throw it out there as an idea.

Snatchpato wrote:I've personally traded Egan Butcher out this week mate (can check reasoning in my tracker). Might be an option for you to free up more cash for next week? So Smith + Butch > Robson + Preston with future upgrades to follow. Means you don't have to trade out Ford who still should make decent coin in the next 5-6 weeks, whereas Butcher will take much longer (plus has a bye next week).

Ford (40) = $60k over 3 weeks
Butcher (52) = $60k over 3 weeks

Ford probably more likely? Not sure. Up to you and your team composition of course, but thought I'd throw it out there as an idea.

Yeah that's definitely a fair point, I've considered Butcher too. Only hesitation is it leaves Cleary, Talau, Ford as red dots this week so I'd be looping Katoa and AKP hoping for something playable.

If I went that route there's also the option of getting Cook/Grant + Preston which is quite tempting.