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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:29 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?  

    I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with.  Help appreciated!

    Thanks


    i can export from my db to spreadsheet - basically any info you see on the site i can put into spreadsheet within reason

    or there is milch's spreadsheet which is pretty comprehensive already
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:49 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?  

    I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with.  Help appreciated!

    Thanks


    PM sent
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:49 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.

    I would definitely find it interesting. 

    I wonder how well the projections perform in past seasons? Guessing impossible to know. But the Fog!
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:53 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    I would definitely find it interesting. 

    I wonder how well the projections perform in past seasons? Guessing impossible to know. But the Fog!

    Here is fantasy coach best predicted value, for people priced at at least 20 points a game

    Use these predictions at your own risk

    Paul Turner31.021.79.3
    Taylan May33.024.18.9
    Jamal Fogarty61.352.68.7
    Ashley Taylor37.030.46.6
    Braydon Trindall44.738.46.3
    Lachlan Ilias30.024.15.9
    Simi Sasagi30.024.15.9
    Billy Smith30.024.15.9
    Peter Mamouzelos38.032.15.9
    Toby Sexton54.048.25.8
    Haze Dunster29.723.95.7
    Nick Meaney39.734.15.6
    Egan Butcher38.032.65.4
    Drew Hutchison49.043.75.3
    Moses Suli36.731.84.9
    Tom Starling38.734.24.5
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:56 pm

    Any love for Wade Graham?

    Trying not to be put off by past injury problems after not getting Turbo last year.

    On paper seems to be decent value. Priced at 37, career average 46 in 60+ mins second row. Not like that really dropped off last year either, was 44.6 last year when he played.

    Any chance he picks up a few more KMs too if Moylan/Hynes is the halves pair?

    Risks are obvious but I'm considering it.
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:57 pm

    Conversely here are the fantasy coach worst picks

    They really are pessimistic on some players. Everyone off Cleary
     
    NameProjPriceValue
    Jackson Topine33.044.2-11.2
    Clinton Gutherson40.751.8-11.1
    Lindsay Collins40.751.5-10.8
    Tohu Harris50.561.3-10.8
    Wayde Egan39.749.8-10.1
    Renouf Atoni26.736.8-10.1
    David Fifita54.764.2-9.6
    Maika Sivo28.037.3-9.3
    Nathan Cleary75.084.3-9.3
    Luke Keary51.060.2-9.2
    Isaiah Papali'i53.762.8-9.1
    Blayke Brailey36.745.8-9.1
    Jayden Brailey50.559.5-9.0
    Reed Mahoney53.762.6-9.0
    Jacob Liddle41.750.5-8.8
    Daniel Saifiti39.748.5-8.8
    Jarrod Wallace31.340.2-8.8
    Angus Crichton52.060.8-8.8
    Adam Pompey30.739.4-8.7
    Sitili Tupouniua34.343.0-8.6
    Reece Walsh44.052.6-8.6
    Albert Kelly35.744.2-8.5
    Jackson Hastings27.736.1-8.5
    Lachlan Croker36.745.1-8.4
    Tevita Pangai Junior45.353.6-8.3
    Jaeman Salmon11.019.3-8.3
    Jake Turpin39.747.9-8.2
    Brandon Smith46.354.4-8.1
    Adam Elliott40.048.0-8.0
    Daine Laurie34.042.0-8.0
    Matt Ikuvalu39.347.1-7.7
    Taniela Paseka26.333.9-7.6
    Christian Welch39.747.2-7.6
    Kotoni Staggs40.748.2-7.5
    Ben Murdoch-Masila25.332.8-7.4
    Kurt Capewell33.741.0-7.4
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:05 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Any love for Wade Graham?

    Trying not to be put off by past injury problems after not getting Turbo last year.

    On paper seems to be decent value. Priced at 37, career average 46 in 60+ mins second row. Not like that really dropped off last year either, was 44.6 last year when he played.

    Any chance he picks up a few more KMs too if Moylan/Hynes is the halves pair?

    Risks are obvious but I'm considering it.

    Fitzgibbon mentioned Wade's kicking game when interviewed. Not touching him though. Fermor in that price range, Nanai and Bullemor cheaper.


    Last edited by mattnz on Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:09 pm

    The model hates a gun. I hope it learns a bit during the season as data comes available.
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:19 pm

    Milchcow wrote:Conversely here are the fantasy coach worst picks

    They really are pessimistic on some players. Everyone off Cleary
     
     
    NameProjPriceValue
    Jackson Topine33.044.2-11.2
    Clinton Gutherson40.751.8-11.1
    Lindsay Collins40.751.5-10.8
    Tohu Harris50.561.3-10.8
    Wayde Egan39.749.8-10.1
    Renouf Atoni26.736.8-10.1
    David Fifita54.764.2-9.6
    Maika Sivo28.037.3-9.3
    Nathan Cleary75.084.3-9.3
    Luke Keary51.060.2-9.2
    Isaiah Papali'i53.762.8-9.1
    Blayke Brailey36.745.8-9.1
    Jayden Brailey50.559.5-9.0
    Reed Mahoney53.762.6-9.0
    Jacob Liddle41.750.5-8.8
    Daniel Saifiti39.748.5-8.8
    Jarrod Wallace31.340.2-8.8
    Angus Crichton52.060.8-8.8
    Adam Pompey30.739.4-8.7
    Sitili Tupouniua34.343.0-8.6
    Reece Walsh44.052.6-8.6
    Albert Kelly35.744.2-8.5
    Jackson Hastings27.736.1-8.5
    Lachlan Croker36.745.1-8.4
    Tevita Pangai Junior45.353.6-8.3
    Jaeman Salmon11.019.3-8.3
    Jake Turpin39.747.9-8.2
    Brandon Smith46.354.4-8.1
    Adam Elliott40.048.0-8.0
    Daine Laurie34.042.0-8.0
    Matt Ikuvalu39.347.1-7.7
    Taniela Paseka26.333.9-7.6
    Christian Welch39.747.2-7.6
    Kotoni Staggs40.748.2-7.5
    Ben Murdoch-Masila25.332.8-7.4
    Kurt Capewell33.741.0-7.4

    I wonder how they calculate this stuff. Surely Gutherson is not going to lose 11 points on average
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:26 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    I wonder how they calculate this stuff. Surely Gutherson is not going to lose 11 points on average

    However they calculate it, it would be automated stuff with little to no human input.

    Also note that this is just projections for the first 3 rounds, not the whole season.
    So I guess that early on these people are playing against teams they have scored low against in recent fantasy seasons, which impacts their projected score.

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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:27 pm

    it would be super basic. a mix of recent scores vs history against opponent
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:35 pm

    my tv broke wrote:it would be super basic. a mix of recent scores vs history against opponent

    I just looked at Harris and Collins from Milch's table above for 'worst' predictions, and both of those players did their ACL's last season (and had super low score) against teams they have in their next three games (obvs Harris wont be there in rnd 1).

    So its kind of meaningless unless you think the chance of re-doing an injury is increased if the opponent is the same as a past injury.
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    Post by Camo123 Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:36 pm

    I would honestly not be too disappointed if Cleary still averaged 75
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:48 pm

    Camo123 wrote:I would honestly not be too disappointed if Cleary still averaged 75

    In Cleary's last 6 games, from Round 24 onwards, he averaged less than 70 with a top score of 82. Obviously, a machine would not be picking too much more than 75 based on this. Camo saying he would be happy paying well over one million for a return or 75 is indicative of a Cleary confirmation bias. If I forked out that much dosh, I would be very disappointed in anything less than 80.
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:50 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    However they calculate it,  it would be automated stuff with little to no human input.

    Also note that this is just projections for the first 3 rounds, not the whole season.
    So I guess that early on these people are playing against teams they have scored low against in recent fantasy seasons, which impacts their projected score.


    That makes sense if it's not based on season average. This would not help any Newbies trying to put a team together based on these predictions.
    I'd be curious to see what their best projected team would be based on these assumptions
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:01 pm

    mattnz wrote:Interview with Fitzgibbon https://www.talkingleaguepod.com/

    Nothing too enlightening, keeping his cards close to his chest.

    Key points:
    - Says Tracey was playing injured most of last season, returning from surgery. Really seems to rate him.
    - Uncommittal on McInnes role to start the season
    - Hynes has a big kick on him. Doesn't mention Trindall when listing others in the squad that can kick in general play.

    Connor Tracey is an interesting proposition. He averaged 38 at CTR last year. He is priced at 33 and available as a DPP HLF/WFB.
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    Post by easytiger Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:08 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    You don't need coach. Just assume all based priced players will average 25 for the year

    I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.

    Sorry, I was being a bit sarky - not at you, but at coach

    Honestly, the projections are terrible.
    I've looked at them in previous seasons and their projections of value are generally just far too far from any likely reality.

    They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO
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    Post by Snatchpato Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:24 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Clearly their algorithm doesn't have any variables to project rookies. And it's based on them all starting.

    We've all been sleeping on the Fog! And I fully expect Fifita to have a huge game in the All-Stars, and then never play more than 25 mins for the rest of the season.

    Really want Tyran Wishart to be the next Immortal. His dad Roderick is my hero. And his mum just to run the life education classes with the giraffe (Harold?) in primary school. South coast royalty!
    Healthy Harold! Loved when that caravan came to town.
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:34 pm

    easytiger wrote:

    They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO

    Any prediction before team lists isn't worth the pixels you read it on.
    There is also very little point in predicting a change of role now. Because in most cases it isn't a prediction but a guess.

    I wonder if they will revise predictions before lockout. Given the price they charge for coach, it would be nice if the data you were given had some use to it.

    If you care about predictions just wait for a day or 2 before the round starts and hit up the daily fantasy predictions for a better idea.

    It's also slightly interesting to note that fantasy predicts 445 players to score above 0 in round 1. That is equivalent to each team fielding 27 players.
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:42 pm

    Best round 1 team on coach predictions (ignoring cap)

    Cook 57
    McInnes 68, Haas 59, De Belin 58
    Curran 58, Jackson 58
    Cleary (c) 152, DCE 64
    Burton 52, Momirovski 48
    Trbo 75, Tedesco 63, To'o 58

    Fogarty 63, Munster 63, Grant 57, Hughes 57

    1,110 points (forgetting you'd blow the cap and have 2 suspended players contributing to your score)

      Current date/time is Sun May 22, 2022 2:03 pm