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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Feb 10, 2022 12:06 am

    Lchy wrote:Warriors, Raiders, Sharks, Panthers, Cowboys all with updated photos on the fantasy website. Fuck the season is so close i can almost taste it

    "Lone Scout"''s previews coming through on the NRL website now too, although there's been enough fantasy content from other sources over the last month that it barely makes a dent.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:43 am

    Interview with Fitzgibbon https://www.talkingleaguepod.com/

    Nothing too enlightening, keeping his cards close to his chest.

    Key points:
    - Says Tracey was playing injured most of last season, returning from surgery. Really seems to rate him.
    - Uncommittal on McInnes role to start the season
    - Hynes has a big kick on him. Doesn't mention Trindall when listing others in the squad that can kick in general play.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:24 am

    Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory/hopium)?

    I haven't looked at making a squad yet, trying to hold out until after TLT. I still don't know who some of the players being talked about are. Will be interesting to see if it avoids bias's for and against various players by not worrying about it until then. Tbh I don't think starting squad means too much unless you really overthink it and end up outsmarting yourself into silly decisions.

    CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE


    Last edited by my tv broke on Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:28 am; edited 1 time in total
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:28 am

    my tv broke wrote:Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory)?
    Everyone is counting on Grant starting, Smith at 13. Before the return of NAS, there would have been no real option due to mids gone. Tui is also not likely to play in a hurry. I am expecting the NAS exemption to be an issue in early rounds of the season (4 months from the time he got covid).
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:31 am

    mattnz wrote:
    Everyone is counting on Grant starting, Smith at 13. Before the return of NAS, there would have been no real option due to mids gone. Tui is also not likely to play in a hurry. I am expecting the NAS exemption to be an issue in early rounds of the season (4 months from the time he got covid).

    That is just assuming Bellamy would move away from a tactic that worked extremely well in 2021. Guess we'll see.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:34 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    That is just assuming Bellamy would move away from a tactic that worked extremely well in 2021. Guess we'll see.

    Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:35 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?

    sounds like a plan
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:58 am

    my tv broke wrote:Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory/hopium)?

    I haven't looked at making a squad yet, trying to hold out until after TLT. I still don't know who some of the players being talked about are. Will be interesting to see if it avoids bias's for and against various players by not worrying about it until then. Tbh I don't think starting squad means too much unless you really overthink it and end up outsmarting yourself into silly decisions.

    CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE

    Yeah I'm trying the wait until TLT (or at least close) approach, looking back don't think there was much value in drafting early squads last season for me. Still ended up on Thursday arvo trying to choose between Host and Gos

    Am keeping a running list of players - without looking how they'd fit in a squad - and I honestly like Cook more than Grant. But their seems to be a lot of potential cheap dummy halves, so could have neither.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:06 am


    One problem with Cook is that he will miss games over origin - you'd probably want to trade him out and in again (this applies to Grant too)

    The other one s that he seems to have been given a boost in price compared to his average. When buying a 60+ scoring player, you don't necessarily need value. But you also don't want to be paying overs for it.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:11 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    One problem with Cook is that he will miss games over origin - you'd probably want to trade him out and in again (this applies to Grant too)

    The other one s that he seems to have been given a boost in price compared to his average. When buying a 60+ scoring player, you don't necessarily need value. But you also don't want to be paying overs for it.

    How sure are we on the magic number?

    My general observation is that most players appear to be "overpriced", when adjusted for the new scoring, which may just mean they are correctly priced, but the magic number is incorrect.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:35 am

    mattnz wrote:

    How sure are we on the magic number?

    My general observation is that most players appear to be "overpriced", when adjusted for the new scoring, which may just mean they are correctly priced, but the magic number is incorrect.

    Easy enough to work out yourself. Just divide a players price by their round 1 break even.
    You'll get a number around 12,400 - 12,500. Won't be exact due to rounding. Just work out a bunch of players and then average them

    Use official values if you want to be sure. Footystatistics/my work can easily have mistakes in it.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:47 am

    On the topic of pricing/value

    If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
    If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

    Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

    NameProjectedPriceValue
    Andrew Fifita32.719.313.4
    Reece Hoffman30.019.310.7
    Paul Turner31.021.79.3
    Taylan May33.024.18.9
    Jamal Fogarty61.352.68.7
    Will Smith27.019.37.7
    Jayden Berrell25.017.77.3
    Alec Tuitavake25.017.77.3
    Tyran Wishart25.017.77.3
    Christian Ma'anaima25.017.77.3
    David Hollis25.017.77.3
    Trey Mooney25.017.77.3
    Sione Fainu25.017.77.3
    Jonah Pezet25.017.77.3
    Kurt Falls25.017.77.3
    Ezra Mam25.017.77.3
    Lachlan Miller25.017.77.3
    Joshua Cook26.019.36.7
    Delouise Hoeter26.019.36.7
    Ashley Taylor37.030.46.6
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:56 am

    Milchcow wrote:On the topic of pricing/value

    If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
    If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

    Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

    NameProjectedPriceValue
    Andrew Fifita32.719.313.4
    Reece Hoffman30.019.310.7
    Paul Turner31.021.79.3
    Taylan May33.024.18.9
    Jamal Fogarty61.352.68.7
    Will Smith27.019.37.7
    Jayden Berrell25.017.77.3
    Alec Tuitavake25.017.77.3
    Tyran Wishart25.017.77.3
    Christian Ma'anaima25.017.77.3
    David Hollis25.017.77.3
    Trey Mooney25.017.77.3
    Sione Fainu25.017.77.3
    Jonah Pezet25.017.77.3
    Kurt Falls25.017.77.3
    Ezra Mam25.017.77.3
    Lachlan Miller25.017.77.3
    Joshua Cook26.019.36.7
    Delouise Hoeter26.019.36.7
    Ashley Taylor37.030.46.6

    Clearly their algorithm doesn't have any variables to project rookies. And it's based on them all starting.

    We've all been sleeping on the Fog! And I fully expect Fifita to have a huge game in the All-Stars, and then never play more than 25 mins for the rest of the season.

    Really want Tyran Wishart to be the next Immortal. His dad Roderick is my hero. And his mum just to run the life education classes with the giraffe (Harold?) in primary school. South coast royalty!


    Last edited by robelgordo on Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:57 am; edited 1 time in total
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:57 am

    Milchcow wrote:On the topic of pricing/value

    If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
    If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

    Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

     
    NameProjectedPriceValue
    Andrew Fifita32.719.313.4
    Reece Hoffman30.019.310.7
    Paul Turner31.021.79.3
    Taylan May33.024.18.9
    Jamal Fogarty61.352.68.7
    Will Smith27.019.37.7
    Jayden Berrell25.017.77.3
    Alec Tuitavake25.017.77.3
    Tyran Wishart25.017.77.3
    Christian Ma'anaima25.017.77.3
    David Hollis25.017.77.3
    Trey Mooney25.017.77.3
    Sione Fainu25.017.77.3
    Jonah Pezet25.017.77.3
    Kurt Falls25.017.77.3
    Ezra Mam25.017.77.3
    Lachlan Miller25.017.77.3
    Joshua Cook26.019.36.7
    Delouise Hoeter26.019.36.7
    Ashley Taylor37.030.46.6

    I guess I need to pay for coach, as I have none of those players
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:59 am

    Lchy wrote:I haven't seen too much chat on this forum about starting the season with Grant weirdly enough, would've thought that might have been a bigger talking point.

    I've been playing around with some drafts with him in it and I think it's doable. In games where he has played 50-70 mins he averages 57 so just about breaks even worse case scenario. Best case he plays 80 where he averages 62 which makes him 5pts underpriced, possible given Finucane leaving. I think he's a no brainer if he was playing week 1 so I may just bite the bullet.

    I was considering it before Randall showed up...
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:04 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE

    Sounds like a Page 51 theme to me bounce

    Clear eyes...:
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:09 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?

    should be working now.

    looks ok on https://footystatistics.com/index.php?p=505972
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:17 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    should be working now.

    looks ok on https://footystatistics.com/index.php?p=505972

    Working great thanks! First rate service.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:18 am

    easytiger wrote:

    I guess I need to pay for coach,  as I have none of those players

    You don't need coach. Just assume all based priced players will average 25 for the year

    I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Thu Feb 10, 2022 11:27 am

    How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?

    I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with. Help appreciated!

    Thanks


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