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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:46 pm

    Milchcow wrote:Best round 1 team on coach predictions (ignoring cap)

    Cook 57
    McInnes 68, Haas 59, De Belin 58
    Curran 58, Jackson 58
    Cleary (c) 152, DCE 64
    Burton 52, Momirovski 48
    Trbo 75, Tedesco 63, To'o 58

    Fogarty 63, Munster 63, Grant 57, Hughes 57

    1,110 points (forgetting you'd blow the cap and have 2 suspended players contributing to your score)

    Thanks Milch!
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:15 pm

    easytiger wrote:

    They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO
    Milchcow wrote:

    Any prediction before team lists isn't worth the pixels you read it on.
    There is also very little point in predicting a change of role now. Because in most cases it isn't a prediction but a guess.

    I wonder if they will revise predictions before lockout. Given the price they charge for coach, it would be nice if the data you were given had some use to it.

    If you care about predictions just wait for a day or 2 before the round starts and hit up the daily fantasy predictions for a better idea.

    It's also slightly interesting to note that fantasy predicts 445 players to score above 0 in round 1. That is equivalent to each team fielding 27 players.


    The coach predicted score looks to be essentially ye olde pareto weighted moving average forecast

    Formula!
    Last score       * 1
    Last-but-one   * 0.8
    Last-but-two   * 0.6
    Last-but-three * 0.4
    Last-but-four   * 0.2

    Add all these together and divide by three and hey presto


    Yeah, it's a dumb forecast. But Milch and ET are both right in that a) it's meaningless before TLT and b) depends on opponents, role, minutes etc.

    The WMA forecast is a useful, very useful, proxy for autocorrelated series when there's lots of weird unknown factors. Autocorrelated just means that tomorrow is going to be quite like today, and the role a player gets (inc minutes, injuries etc) is probably going to be the like one they had last week. So WMA is a sensible, probably  good, predictor for mid-late season.

    But don't pay for coach, just plug the 20% bands into excel yourself: =(J19*H19+J18*H18+J17*H17+J16*H16+J15*H15)/3


    Last edited by L-Jimmy on Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:16 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : excel-ent)
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:25 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:



    The coach predicted score looks to be essentially ye olde pareto weighted moving average forecast

    Formula!
    Last score       * 1
    Last-but-one   * 0.8
    Last-but-two   * 0.6
    Last-but-three * 0.4
    Last-but-four   * 0.2

    Add all these together and divide by three and hey presto


    Yeah, it's a dumb forecast. But Milch and ET are both right in that a) it's meaningless before TLT and b) depends on opponents, role, minutes etc.

    The WMA forecast is a useful, very useful, proxy for autocorrelated series when there's lots of weird unknown factors. Autocorrelated just means that tomorrow is going to be quite like today, and the role a player gets (inc minutes, injuries etc) is probably going to be the like one they had last week. So WMA is a sensible, probably  good, predictor for mid-late season.

    But don't pay for coach, just plug the 20% bands into excel yourself: =(J19*H19+J18*H18+J17*H17+J16*H16+J15*H15)/3

    I can see that you are an Excel Master Trophy
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:04 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    PM sent
    Legend, thank you!
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:45 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    In Cleary's last 6 games, from Round 24 onwards, he averaged less than 70 with a top score of 82. Obviously, a machine would not be picking too much more than 75 based on this. Camo saying he would be happy paying well over one million for a return or 75 is indicative of a Cleary confirmation bias. If I forked out that much dosh, I would be very disappointed in anything less than 80.  

    Oversimplification but:

    With Clearly, you're paying 1mil to lock in 150 per week (he's your captain). As a worst case scenario.

    Versus playing lotto at the next level of guns to try and match. Most likely, on average you get 120-130 per week.

    Now if you can use the 250k saved from avoiding Cleary and getting some other gun in the next tier to make other upgrades that net an additional 20-30 points a week, it's good bet.

    I don't think it is (a good bet)
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:48 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:



    The coach predicted score looks to be essentially ye olde pareto weighted moving average forecast

    Formula!
    Last score       * 1
    Last-but-one   * 0.8
    Last-but-two   * 0.6
    Last-but-three * 0.4
    Last-but-four   * 0.2

    Add all these together and divide by three and hey presto


    Yeah, it's a dumb forecast. But Milch and ET are both right in that a) it's meaningless before TLT and b) depends on opponents, role, minutes etc.

    The WMA forecast is a useful, very useful, proxy for autocorrelated series when there's lots of weird unknown factors. Autocorrelated just means that tomorrow is going to be quite like today, and the role a player gets (inc minutes, injuries etc) is probably going to be the like one they had last week. So WMA is a sensible, probably  good, predictor for mid-late season.

    But don't pay for coach, just plug the 20% bands into excel yourself: =(J19*H19+J18*H18+J17*H17+J16*H16+J15*H15)/3


    Good pick up.

    I haven't looked at it for a long, but seems pretty similar to how price changes are calculated?

    This coach deal seems pretty scammy.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:51 pm

    robelgordo wrote:


    Good pick up.

    I haven't looked at it for a long, but seems pretty similar to how price changes are calculated?

    This coach deal seems pretty scammy.

    Doesn't the coach deal come with free access to nlrfantasyfanatics.com & footystatistics.com?
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:28 pm

    robelgordo wrote:


    Good pick up.

    I haven't looked at it for a long, but seems pretty similar to how price changes are calculated?

    This coach deal seems pretty scammy.


    Main benefit of coach is easy and convenient Breakevens. That would be a big selling point if it wasn't possible to calculate BEs without any coach data.
    People like myself and mtb make our own BEs available for free, but even then its not as convenient as just seeing them right there on the fantasy site when planning trades.

    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:34 pm

    Milchcow wrote:


    Main benefit of coach is easy and convenient Breakevens. That would be a big selling point if it wasn't possible to calculate BEs without any coach data.
    People like myself and mtb make our own BEs available for free, but even then its not as convenient as just seeing them right there on the fantasy site when planning trades.


    If the coach deal came with an extra 2 trades I'd sign up straight away. Twisted Evil

    Maybe they should put me in charge of the marketing campaign.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:37 pm

    Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

    Coates
    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:41 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

    Coates
    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster


    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster
    Coates
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:42 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    If the coach deal came with an extra 2 trades I'd sign up straight away. Twisted Evil

    Maybe they should put me in charge of the marketing campaign.

    If the game became pay to win, a bunch of people would walk away on principle.

    A few years ago they offered 2 overall prizes. One for best overall score, and one for best score overall score amongst players with a coach subscription
    That wasn't a bad idea, and is the best bet they have for getting serious people to sign up in numbers, as lots of people would back themselves as a chance at overall, however misguided their belief.

    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:46 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    If the game became pay to win, a bunch of people would walk away on principle.

    A few years ago they offered 2 overall prizes. One for best overall score, and one for best score overall score amongst players with a coach subscription
    That wasn't a bad idea, and is the best bet they have for getting serious people to sign up in numbers, as lots of people would back themselves as a chance at overall, however misguided their belief.


    there is a chance?:
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:57 pm

    I used to happily pay for coach for the convenience... That was before fanhub fucked everything up to begin the 2018 season
    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:58 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

    Coates
    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster

    Paulo
    Pereira
    Coates
    Dunster
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:12 pm

    my tv broke wrote:I used to happily pay for coach for the convenience... That was before fanhub fucked everything up to begin the 2018 season

    Me too
    Moanaman
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    Post by Moanaman Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:17 pm

    The man who fueled my passion for League as a child has died, Olsen Filipaina has passed away from Kidney Failure in Sydney

    The King is dead, long live the King


    Link

    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets - Page 50 Olsen-10
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:26 pm

    mattnz wrote:


    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster
    Coates

    Loving the fact that Mattnz goes to rank the cash gen but (coincidently?) ends up ordering them by selection %. I like to think his mind just gravitates to the PODs.
    King of the PODs!
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:28 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

    Coates
    Jaxson Paulo
    Periera 
    Dunster

    It's a bit of a lucky dip, all 4 could stink it up or do well. My money is on Coates
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:29 pm

    Clear eyes full heart page 51 party

      Current date/time is Sun May 29, 2022 9:58 pm