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    The Betting thread part 2

    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:59 pm


    Oh awesome mate, hope it gets up for you! What's on the Topsport twitter?
    I do get on most of the tips I share on here and social media. Basically the process is use the edge portal to make sense of it all then pick the model's favourites and/or a couple of picks I really like. EG. the Koala and Sua (he was 4.75 initially, then went to 4 then the 3.10 you must have been btw) picks were obvious value when comparing the 6 sites and our model odds.
    But bets like Dean Iremia at 1.85, our model isnt good with rookies so I just realised wait a minute 1.85 for a Storm winger in a game they're 19 pts faovurites is a great bet.

    Always happy to hear other people's approaches but basically mine is: DFS - almost 100% model + optimiser, tryscorer betting - use the edge portal to find the best value and combine that with nrl knowledge for betting for fun!
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    Post by Rooster Booster Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:20 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:


    Oh awesome mate, hope it gets up for you! What's on the Topsport twitter?
    I do get on most of the tips I share on here and social media. Basically the process is use the edge portal to make sense of it all then pick the model's favourites and/or a couple of picks I really like. EG. the Koala and Sua (he was 4.75 initially, then went to 4 then the 3.10 you must have been btw) picks were obvious value when comparing the 6 sites and our model odds.
    But bets like Dean Iremia at 1.85, our model isnt good with rookies so I just realised wait a minute 1.85 for a Storm winger in a game they're 19 pts faovurites is a great bet.

    Always happy to hear other people's approaches but basically mine is: DFS - almost 100% model + optimiser, tryscorer betting - use the edge portal to find the best value and combine that with nrl knowledge for betting for fun!
    DFS ?

    Just realised you're already aware of Top Sport - they do show videos on there Twitter feed which is good.

    Only have the one SB account, may have to open others now.

    Is Bbet apart of your model ?

    https://www.bbet.com.au/Sport/Rugby_League/NRL/Matches
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:39 am

    @Rooster Booster wrote:
    DFS ?

    Just realised you're already aware of Top Sport - they do show videos on there Twitter feed which is good.

    Only have the one SB account, may have to open others now.

    Is Bbet apart of your model ?

    https://www.bbet.com.au/Sport/Rugby_League/NRL/Matches

    Ooh yep I know of Topsport. Will need to look into bbet to see if they've got good tryscorer odds!
    But yeah basically the model component is basically looking at past few years of nrl data and having our 'predicted' odds of what a player should be for FTS. The rest of it is purely just comparing it to the best price out on the market and seeing if we can find good value!
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    Post by No Worries Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:12 am

    @Dttragic2016 Trypod Punters Tips Forum on Facebook I 2nd this one.
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:52 am

    @No Worries wrote:@Dttragic2016 Trypod Punters Tips Forum on Facebook I 2nd this one.

    Been listening to the pod on and off for a few years and I liked the sound of the two guys that started it. Spoke to the guy that's running it by himself now (Jacob) on the phone for an hour the other day and it was nice to hear that he seems like a deadset good bloke and has made a lot of sacrifices to keep the pod group going!

    Anyways the FB group is great to get a good variety of tips. TBH I don't actually bet on many of them (aside from their mixed matchup which has been amazing haha) but the vibe there is similar to this place. Actually enforce the no dickhead policy haha. Any other good resources/communities for NRL betting?
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:49 pm

    Ramien out, Talakai shifts to Centre & Jack Williams to starting 2nd row.
    Best value play is Talakai ATS at 4.50 on Sportsbet.
    Small chance Talakai and Williams dont actually move, Metcalf comes into start in the halves and Tracey shifts to Ctr.
    In that case, Tracey is 4.20 ats on Sportsbet which is already a good value play if he stays in the halves according to our model.

    Keen to hear any other thoughts on how to make the most out of this situation!
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    Post by No Worries Mon Aug 02, 2021 3:17 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Been listening to the pod on and off for a few years and I liked the sound of the two guys that started it. Spoke to the guy that's running it by himself now (Jacob) on the phone for an hour the other day and it was nice to hear that he seems like a deadset good bloke and has made a lot of sacrifices to keep the pod group going!

    Anyways the FB group is great to get a good variety of tips. TBH I don't actually bet on many of them (aside from their mixed matchup which has been amazing haha) but the vibe there is similar to this place. Actually enforce the no dickhead policy haha. Any other good resources/communities for NRL betting?

    I'm a mug punter and don't put a lot of effort in. Tried a few of te others but like you say Trypod is well run and the odd troll with their 3000 unit bets nevr last long. A lot of the others are pretty negative like everything has to be a sure thing on massive odds. Pick a favourite or your tip doesnt get up and its a bloodbath. I'm sure these are the same dicks posting on players socials they cost them a multi
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 4:59 pm

    Stuff for today. Data updated at https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl
    Odds have changed slightly - DCE at 3.10 on Neds now but still very good value.

    FTS
    Proctor @ 31 Pointsbet. Highest elsewhere is 26 and our model odds have him at 19 so a great value play here. The Titans looked great last week and the Doggies are historically poor.

    FTS 2nd Half
    Braden Hamlin-Uele @ 81 TAB. His career tryscoring strike rate is only just below Papalii - one of the best tryscoring props in the game. Yes they are outsiders against a hot Manly team and with SJ out, the Sharks could struggle. But he'll be playing around 30 mins for the Sharks either side of HT and is great odds at 81.

    ATS
    Connor Tracey @ 4 - SB. Good value according to the model, easily priced better than on other sites and a noted ball runner who will either have the ball in his hands in the halves or be wider out at Centre. Good upside here.
    DCE @ 3.4 on Neds. One of the best value plays of the Round, priced 2.83 or less elsewhere. Can see him backing up for a late try!
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:15 pm

    Fermor starting! 51 fts and 6 ats on Pointsbet!
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:53 pm

    Watching on DT, a little play on Fermor for me.
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:23 pm

    @Revraiser wrote:Watching on DT, a little play on Fermor for me.

    Oh mate that bounce of the ball..
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:51 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Oh mate that bounce of the ball..

    Seriously haha.. just an average bounce straight or right and he scores.
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    Post by Rooster Booster Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:55 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:


    Oh awesome mate, hope it gets up for you! What's on the Topsport twitter?
    I do get on most of the tips I share on here and social media. Basically the process is use the edge portal to make sense of it all then pick the model's favourites and/or a couple of picks I really like. EG. the Koala and Sua (he was 4.75 initially, then went to 4 then the 3.10 you must have been btw) picks were obvious value when comparing the 6 sites and our model odds.
    But bets like Dean Iremia at 1.85, our model isnt good with rookies so I just realised wait a minute 1.85 for a Storm winger in a game they're 19 pts faovurites is a great bet.

    Always happy to hear other people's approaches but basically mine is: DFS - almost 100% model + optimiser, tryscorer betting - use the edge portal to find the best value and combine that with nrl knowledge for betting for fun!

    Yeaahhh Baby.

    Multi gets up @ $6.88!   cheer 

    Souths - 29.5, Cody Walker ATS, into Manly - 7.5 with Garrick ATS. 
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    Post by Rooster Booster Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:58 pm

    @Revraiser wrote:Watching on DT, a little play on Fermor for me.

    Unlucky mate, was thinking of you when the ball went Fermor's way.
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:09 pm

    All coming up roses for u Rooster, gud work
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:14 am

    ***T20 Aus v BD Cricket Value/Bookie error***

    Matt Wade on Neds, 10+ runs is 1.60. His line is 21 and they've just priced him incorrectly as the other top order guys are around 1.30 on Toppy from memory.

    Anyways 1.60 for 10+ is amazing value but you can also get on 15, 20, 25 and 50+ however they tail off in terms of how good the value is.
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:15 am

    @Rooster Booster wrote:

    Yeaahhh Baby.

    Multi gets up @ $6.88!   cheer 

    Souths - 29.5, Cody Walker ATS, into Manly - 7.5 with Garrick ATS. 

    Awesome mate!!
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    Post by No Worries Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:48 am

    Had my $7.81 multi reduced to $4.45 due to void legs which got up. Still a nice earn
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:23 am

    @No Worries wrote:Had my $7.81 multi reduced to $4.45 due to void legs which got up. Still a nice earn

    What were the legs mate? nice win though!
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:44 am

    An update on Wade -he is likely going to bat at 5. The original 10+ runs bet is still great value at 1.60 but 20 and 50+ etc not as good
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-in-bangladesh-2021-1270832/bangladesh-vs-australia-1st-t20i-1270834/match-preview

      Current date/time is Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:11 am