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    The Betting thread part 2

    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:51 pm

    Yeah its like a forming tsunami, the main thread, but understandably rules in place so it is not taken over with gambling or looping chatter.

    No proper golf this weekend aside from the Olympics.

    Surprised the Eels are faves tonight.
    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:01 pm

    Roosters +4.5 does look easy money.

    Famous last words.
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:14 pm

    @No Worries wrote:Roosters +4.5 does look easy money.

    Famous last words.

    Agree with you on that. I've reserved Saturday night as my big piss up night watching the footy as we've just had the 2nd dose of the vaccination and want to take it easy for a while haha but otherwise I'd be going hard on pro Roosters stuff tonight!

    Going to back our model in with a couple of ATS picks but definitely some juicy FTS odds for tonight's big Roosters Eels clash! As always you can check out the odds across 6 sites & our model odds as well as career strike rates for every player in every game on our Edge portal - https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

    ATS
    Drew Hutchison - 6.50 on SB
    James Tedesco - 2.71 on Topsport
    Both good odds compared to both our model's odds & historical career strike rate. Personally, I think the Roosters will do well tonight and Hutchison's strength is his running game and Teddy has a point to prove this season trying to carry the Roosters on his back!

    FTS
    Victor Radley 67 TAB
    Nathan Brown 81 TAB
    Radley is around fair price according to our model but almost twice the odds he should be compared to his career FTS strike rate! Brown is really good value on both counts and expecting a grinding game so middle forwards at good value to hard to miss here!
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    Post by Rooster Booster Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:27 am

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Holy shit, nice work mate. Wish we had a more vibrant betting/dfs thread. Seems like people love discussing it on the main thread but don't venture outside of there. If anyone's got an idea to attract more people to get amongst the chat feel free to throw up suggestions?

    Our weekly article looks at how the Panthers will cope with To'o, Tedesco's evolution as a FB in a very different Roosters team & the battle for the Top 8: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-timeless-teddy-tackle-breaking-titans-battle-for-the-top-8/

    Data tools updated for draftstars projections & tryscorer odds comparison for Round 20: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

    We'd could all be sitting on a Gold Mine if we can could get yourself, ' Revraiser ' and ' ynot '  working as a team.🤑💰
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:02 am

    @Rooster Booster wrote:

    We'd could all be sitting on a Gold Mine if we can could get yourself, ' Revraiser ' and ' ynot '  working as a team.🤑💰

    Not sure about a Gold Mine but it'd be good fun for sure! I'll be doing my best to make sure I post my stuff up on here but in most cases it's the value bets according to highest/model % from the Edge portal and some of my gut feel picks from almost a decade betting on first & anytime tryscorers! Hopefully we can get a few more people engaged that are into this stuff.
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    Post by Revraiser Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:53 pm

    @Rooster Booster wrote:

    We'd could all be sitting on a Gold Mine if we can could get yourself, ' Revraiser ' and ' ynot '  working as a team.🤑💰

    DTtragic posting here has certainly assisted us in offloading the 'degenerates' tag associated with punters, and myself insisting i always wear a tie when i post in here hasn't done any harm either.
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    Post by Revraiser Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:54 pm

    I'll try not to post 'after the fact' stuff, as i understand it looks completely desperado ala using dental floss when u have one tooth remaining Wink
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    Post by Revraiser Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:42 pm

    If u slap 3 anytime tryscorers of Staggs/Walsh/Watson together ur looking at about 30/1.

    Watson anytime is $6 or $7, seems huge. A hatrick is in excess of $300/1
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:25 pm

    Should be a really exciting, high scoring night of action tonight. As always, our edge portal has the odds for each player across 6 sites compared to our model and historical odds to help you find the best value plays - all on https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

    FTS Team - Joe Ofahengaue @ $67. Can get him for FTS @ $101, either way it's a great value play against a weakened Warriors pack. Way higher odds than other sites & and what our model odds have him priced at!
    ATS - Tommy Talau on SB- repeat the reasoning for the weak Warriors team + our model loves the $2.75 for him ATS
    FTS - Tom Dearden at $41 on Pointsbet. Way higher odds than other sites, model loves him at this price and with no Holmes and Hammer he needs to put his stamp on this team. Although the Broncos have Haas and Staggs the Cowboys can score points, so think it's a great value bet for him to sneak over early on.

    The Betting thread part 2 - Page 3 Nrl_ro10
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:44 pm

    @Revraiser wrote:If u slap 3 anytime tryscorers of Staggs/Walsh/Watson together ur looking at about 30/1.

    Watson anytime is $6 or $7, seems huge. A hatrick is in excess of $300/1

    Do you mean Connor Watson? If so yeah that does sound decent mate
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Aug 01, 2021 12:31 pm

    Updated tryscorer + draftstars info on https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

    Personal thoughts on value tryscorers for today:

    First Tryscorer
    Guler @ 67 on SB. Great up and coming player in a strong Raiders pack in good form. Great value according to model odds and can be found on $71-76 on SB as they change their odds.
    Frizzell @ 41 on Pointsbet. Way better odds than other sites, great value bet according to model odds & hopefully Ponga can dish up a nice pass for him to get over early!
    Arrow @ $81 on TAB. Almost double the odds as on other sites & our model odds + Rabbits strong favourites up against a weakened Dragons team. Best value play of the week according to our model.

    Anytime Tryscorer
    Keaon Koloa @ $3.75 on SB + Playup- similar logic to Arrow re weakened Dragons team. Plays left edge and then middle, been in great form too.
    Tariq Sims @ $16 on TAB. Usually don't like middle forwards for strong outsider teams for ATS, however he's priced at 16 here where most sites have him less than 7 and our model has him at 14. Most importantly, there's a chance he plays part of the game on the edge, late mail on DT says they expect him to play on the edge. Would be the value play ATS bet of the weekend if he does.
    Jahrome Hughes @2.83 on Topsport - one of our model's favourites most weeks, up against a weakened Panthers team.

    The Betting thread part 2 - Page 3 Nrl_ro12
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:43 pm

    Papalii benched, $51 on TAB first half 2nd tryscorer a great value bet also.

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    Post by Revraiser Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:43 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Do you mean Connor Watson? If so yeah that does sound decent mate

    Yeah Connor mate. All the best with ur choices today!
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    Post by Rooster Booster Sun Aug 01, 2021 3:16 pm

    Put some money on Jayden Su'a ATS, he scored two last round, also Tariq is lined up as lock at the moment so might pass on him.

    Thinking maybe any of the Souths outside backs might be good for two or three.
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    Post by Rooster Booster Sun Aug 01, 2021 3:20 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:Papalii benched, $51 on TAB first half 2nd tryscorer a great value bet also.


    Mate how good are you.

    Had a twenty minute shower with the missus before the game so I didn't see this. 

    Ahhhhhhhh - I mean Arrggggghhhh
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    Post by AL Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:00 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:Papalii benched, $51 on TAB first half 2nd tryscorer a great value bet also.


    Nice tip! Gutted I got here too late.
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    Post by Revraiser Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:26 pm

    Crikey ! Thought about it, didn't plonk on it. Nada.
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:45 pm

    @Rooster Booster wrote:

    Mate how good are you.

    Had a twenty minute shower with the missus before the game so I didn't see this. 

    Ahhhhhhhh - I mean Arrggggghhhh

    Haha sounds like a good way to spend a Sunday!

    There's a place called Trypod Punters Tips Forum on Facebook that I've been putting these on, if you like your NRL punting I'd recommend joining. Reminds me of this place - somehow avoids the tools that lurk most of the internet haha.

    Was a great day in the end with the Papalii FTS 2nd half win and a couple of really good ATS wins. Frustratingly, Arrow and Guler both scored as long shot props but just not the first try. Koala at 3.75 and Sua at 4.75 (well he was on Tuesday night when I noticed his odds on the odds comparison stick out as obvious value!) ATS as well as Dean Iremia who I noticed was priced waaaay more than Addo Carr on Topsport.

    Any other good stories about wins or near misses?
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    Post by Rooster Booster Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:47 pm

    @ Dttragic - well again on the Kolo pick.

    Just wondering, do you personally back all these picks ?
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    Post by Rooster Booster Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:58 pm

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Haha sounds like a good way to spend a Sunday!

    There's a place called Trypod Punters Tips Forum on Facebook that I've been putting these on, if you like your NRL punting I'd recommend joining. Reminds me of this place - somehow avoids the tools that lurk most of the internet haha.

    Was a great day in the end with the Papalii FTS 2nd half win and a couple of really good ATS wins. Frustratingly, Arrow and Guler both scored as long shot props but just not the first try. Koala at 3.75 and Sua at 4.75 (well he was on Tuesday night when I noticed his odds on the odds comparison stick out as obvious value!) ATS as well as Dean Iremia who I noticed was priced waaaay more than Addo Carr on Topsport.

    Any other good stories about wins or near misses?


    Yeah, got up on the Jayden Su's pick @ $3.10 ATS.

    Still have a Multi running that incudes Souths -29.5, Cody Walker ATS, into Manly -7.5 with Garrick ATS. 

    Thanks for the tip on Trypod Punters Tips Forum

    Have you heard of https://twitter.com/TopSport_com_au ?

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