NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 67 - Stop the rank crying and get on with it!

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Had a quick browse and Schoupp is the only player that fits the bill in the sub 300k range.

Rocco Berry?

Short on trades and not set up for Round 17 so I am focusing on building a strong team with good depth for the run home. Making 3 trades this week- Laurie, Matterson and Lodge for Fifita, Tohu and Verrills.
Gives me this team with 7 trades left:

Brailey
Tohu TPJ Haas
Angus Fifita
Cleary Moses
Bird Burton
Walsh Hynes Turbo

Watson Arey Papalii CHN
Schuster AKelly Verrills Suaalii

Will be spending 2 or 3 more trades before sitting on 5 in case of emergency. 1 will be Hynes to Teddy/Pap. 2 will be adding Lomax as a POD. 3 will be a round 17 scorer. Potential trade outs are Watson and Kelly (need him to make some more money)

Feel like I'm forced into the strategy to go big now and hope for the best. Anyone else taking the same route?

One of Watson or Matto is gone for me this week but can't decide who. I've been leaning Matto but seems a lot of people are getting rid of Watson.

I certainly didn't think I'd be getting rid of Matterson this soon if at all but there's no denying he hasn't been very involved lately.

Watson back to bench but has averaged 52 from there this season so not sure if it's really going to be an issue. He just needs 50mins and was getting that at the start of the year, the only difference is Barnett is now playing middle I guess

Just thought I'd mentioned that we (Roosters) looked much weaker on our right hand side last week against the Titans. I expect a lot of traffic down that side so consequently I am playing Burton over S. Crichton. Thank you for listening to my speech.

Kane wrote:

Berry?

Only WFB mate. I might have to suck it up and grab Simo and at least WFB is covered

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Only WFB mate. I might have to suck it up and grab Simo and at least WFB is covered

Ah sorry I thought he was both

Kane wrote:

Ah sorry I thought he was both

He might get it in 18 with DPPs he’s played a few games there

Playing H2H only, what do we think are better trades? Have 12 left before this week.

TU:

Simpkin --> Verrills
Momo --> Manu
Matto --> IPap

TD:

Simpkin --> Verrills
Momo --> Gagai
Laurie --> To'o/Gutherson

I'm going around in circles a bit this week. Ranked 359 overall and 13 trades left before any trades this round. I'm tempted to go balls to the wall and make a big push using all 4 trades this week to bring in 3 of my final 17 players. It's not really my style in seasons past and it could come back to bite me big time but man am I tempted!

Initial thoughts
Watson->cashout
Laurie->Angus
Matterson->DFifi

leaves me with
Brailey
Tohu Angus Haas
CHN Dfifi
Cleary DCE
Bird Avo
Turbo Hynes Teddy
Fog Curran Moses Walsh
Schuster BJones Simonsson Cashout

9 trades remaining 12k

Thoughts?

MayorofAlburquerque wrote:Howdy Y'all,

Are any of you stats boffins with copious amounts of year-on-year data and excel-savy know-how able to shed light on the trends that have led to the ascendancy of the HLF position? Out of the top-10 averaging players, it breaks down to:
HLF = 4
WFB = 3
MID = 2
EDG = 1

NB: 2 of these are Keary and Morris
NB: Pos. 11-12 are HKRs

I'm not sure how this compares to the top-10 from previous years. Is it because kick-metres have increased? Or are halves scoring and contributing more points under the new rules? Or just the decline of the 80-minute Hooker? Anyone got any insight?

Seems to explain why most teams are ending up Halves-heavy - Premiums like Cleary, DCE, Hughes (who seems an outlier on the KM front), value picks like Moses, Fogarty, SJ, and that jerk Averillo with his billion KMs per game because that's All the Bulldogs gameplan ever is. An end-bench with 2-3 HLFs is probably an option.

One thing seems clear though...The Hooker is dead. Long live the Hooker.


The Mayor.

Team this week will have 7 players eligible to play in the halves. 8 when i bring back the Shoe assuming he plays r17

Sleepy wrote:Initial thoughts
Watson->cashout
Laurie->Angus
Matterson->DFifi

leaves me with
Brailey
Tohu Angus Haas
CHN Dfifi
Cleary DCE
Bird Avo
Turbo Hynes Teddy
Fog Curran Moses Walsh
Schuster BJones Simonsson Cashout

9 trades remaining 12k

Thoughts?

Why Angus? More than likely won't play 17.

Fk it, bringing in fifita
Brail
Tohu ipap haas
Fifita TPJ
SJ Cleary
Avo Bird
Hynes Teddy Walsh

Angus Fog CHN Matto
Jones SCritch Verills Schuster

11 trades left

sbr202 wrote:Playing H2H only, what do we think are better trades? Have 12 left before this week.

TU:

Simpkin --> Verrills
Momo --> Manu
Matto --> IPap

TD:

Simpkin --> Verrills
Momo --> Gagai
Laurie --> To'o/Gutherson

Manu is a weird call for H2H.
Gagai is a weird call for fantasy.

Definite thumbs-sideways from me.

wolfking wrote:

Why Angus?  More than likely won't play 17.

Was thinking Ipap but l given my trades was thinking to set my final team sooner rather then later

Shady2K wrote:You could say hookers from last year have either declined or disappeared as well.

Koro hasn’t hit the heights of last year yet
Cook been okay but not top tier yet
McInnes injured
Smith retired

That was also something I'd considered. Its hard to gauge whether its the rise of one, fall of one, or both happening simultaneously.

No McInnes is obviously the big one. 
Grant's year has been derailed by injury.
Would have been interesting to see where they ended up.

I guess the thing is it looks like the elite HKR is somewhere around 60 points per game, but the HLF is +65, so it suggests a shift in the tiers of positions.

The Mayor.

Sleepy wrote:

Was thinking Ipap but l given my trades was thinking to set my final team sooner rather then later

Fair. I think IPap is just as much a keeper as Angus though.

MayorofAlburquerque wrote:Howdy Y'all,

Are any of you stats boffins with copious amounts of year-on-year data and excel-savy know-how able to shed light on the trends that have led to the ascendancy of the HLF position? Out of the top-10 averaging players, it breaks down to:
HLF = 4
WFB = 3
MID = 2
EDG = 1

NB: 2 of these are Keary and Morris
NB: Pos. 11-12 are HKRs

I'm not sure how this compares to the top-10 from previous years. Is it because kick-metres have increased? Or are halves scoring and contributing more points under the new rules? Or just the decline of the 80-minute Hooker? Anyone got any insight?

Seems to explain why most teams are ending up Halves-heavy - Premiums like Cleary, DCE, Hughes (who seems an outlier on the KM front), value picks like Moses, Fogarty, SJ, and that jerk Averillo with his billion KMs per game because that's All the Bulldogs gameplan ever is. An end-bench with 2-3 HLFs is probably an option.

One thing seems clear though...The Hooker is dead. Long live the Hooker.


The Mayor.

Revraiser wrote:

Wasn't it MS who thought this would eventuate this year re the Halves ?

Don't have the stats handy but anecdotally we have seen teams moving from splitting kicking duties to having one dominant kicker since COVID break. Because of this I tried to guess which halves would dominate kick metres and start with those: Cleary, Moses, Munster, Lam. I got 2 of those wrong with Hughes/Munster having a more traditional split + Keary dominating more than Lam. As we saw the strategy was good I just picked the wrong cattle. Starting Townsend over Lam as an example would have worked wonders.

Kick metres samples from round 2 2020 including top 2 from each team:

Dogs Wakeham 221, Lewis 363
Cowboys Drinkwater 101, Morgan 527
Dragons Norman 273, Hunt 240
Panthers Luai 143, Cleary 355
Broncos Milford 277, Turpin 73
Rabbits Burns 50, ARey 202
Warriors CHT 131, Green 341
Raiders Wighton 158, Williams 252
Roosters Keary 104, Flanno 343
Manly Walker 124, DCE 598
Sharks SJ 221, Townsend 182
Storm Munster 229, Hughes 177
Tigers Benji 383, Jrey 31
Knights Pearce 339, Ponga 154
Titans Roberts 49, Taylor 345
Eels Moses 438, Brown 59

Only really Morgan, DCE, Moses, Benji and Taylor really dominated kick metres with the rest being split fairly evenly. Compare this to the most recent round where DCE (300), SJ (604), Burton (470), Arey (488), Clifford (665) all had massive kick metres. Plus we have seen what Cleary, Fogarty, Moses, Pearce, Averillo and Doueihi have done all year

Frizell and Edrick back at Knights training. Jones might be shorter than expected

Spoiler:

BCT05 wrote:One of Watson or Matto is gone for me this week but can't decide who. I've been leaning Matto but seems a lot of people are getting rid of Watson.

I certainly didn't think I'd be getting rid of Matterson this soon if at all but there's no denying he hasn't been very involved lately.

Watson back to bench but has averaged 52 from there this season so not sure if it's really going to be an issue. He just needs 50mins and was getting that at the start of the year, the only difference is Barnett is now playing middle I guess

For what's it worth I think I'm going Watson. When the team was full strength he was starting to look like getting 40mins then the team turned to shit. Eels bench looks more promising for Matto this week (who could go later for Thompson or AFB in the next couple of rounds)