NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

Camo123 wrote:Lone Scout https://twitter.com/lone_scout/status/1358515010146758657

Daine Laurie will be added to fantasy on Wednesday, 246k WFB

Followed that link, and this tweet was underneath: https://twitter.com/NRLBoomRookies/status/1358336775425433601 DAVE "COAL TRAIN" TAYLOR in 2021 (2020?)

White Lightning wrote:I've just read some terrible news....the Eels have dumped the cheerleaders on the eve of the 2021 nrl season...this is bad karma for their premiership hopes in 2021.

This close to the season kick off that’s some bad juju right there .....

Chewie wrote:

I was concerned that they were going to add some extras on the price tag... but 246k is acceptable

The game he played at fullback last year he made 13 tackles... surely these all weren't at fullback?

From the stats looks like he had a blinder though

StormTrooper96 wrote:

The game he played at fullback last year he made 13 tackles... surely these all weren't at fullback?

From the stats looks like he had a blinder though

He was playing fullback for the Panthers delivering a 42-0 flogging. How often is that going happen with Wests?

rhinoceroo wrote:

He was playing fullback for the Panthers delivering a 42-0 flogging. How often is that going happen with Wests?

I know this is true, but Panthers have so many stars around them and it seems he got pretty involved... over 200 metres, 4 TB's, 1 LBA, 1 TA... If he was starting FB in R1 you would be absolutely silly not to have him in your team...

rhinoceroo wrote:

He was playing fullback for the Panthers delivering a 42-0 flogging. How often is that going happen with Wests?

Playing for Wests is more likely to require 13 tackles as a fullback

Just on Laurie (and as a Tigers fan);

In 2019 Mbye trained at Fullback in the offseason and played the first half of the year in that position.
It wasn't particularly successful and he was replaced by Corey Thompson.

Last year Madge started the year with Corey Thompson (and Doueihi in the Centres). It seemed like it was never a long term solution and that was confirmed when Thompson was released to play for the Titans.

Doueihi was recruited to play in the halves and Madge has always said that's where he sees him. Nevertheless, Doueihi saw out most of 2020 as makeshift Fullback but again never looked like a long term solution.

The Tigers signed Dane Laurie to be Fullback from 2022, but have been pushing for an early release this whole time.

To further illustrate the desire to secure a fullback; when Brisbane appeared to show interest in Billy Walters, the Tigers reportedly said they were interested in an exchange for Australia Schoolboys fullback Reece Walsh - the Broncos said hell no. They even did a train and trial with former Souths signing Edene Gebbie (PNG Fullback).

I recall (potential captain) James Tamou also stating that Laurie is first grade ready.
I generally don't like to predict team selections (as we'll find out soon enough in early March) but am fairly confident that if Laurie isn't named round 1, he'll get an opportunity in the Fullback spot pretty quickly.

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easytiger wrote:Just on Laurie (and as a Tigers fan);

In 2019 Mbye trained at Fullback in the offseason and played the first half of the year in that position.
It wasn't particularly successful and he was replaced by Corey Thompson.

Last year Madge started the year with Corey Thompson (and Doueihi in the Centres). It seemed like it was never a long term solution and that was confirmed when Thompson was released to play for the Titans.

Doueihi was recruited to play in the halves and Madge has always said that's where he sees him. Nevertheless, Doueihi saw out most of 2020 as makeshift Fullback but again never looked like a long term solution.

The Tigers signed Dane Laurie to be Fullback from 2022, but have been pushing for an early release this whole time.

To further illustrate the desire to secure a fullback; when Brisbane appeared to show interest in Billy Walters, the Tigers reportedly said they were interested in an exchange for Australia Schoolboys fullback Reece Walsh - the Broncos said hell no. They even did a train and trial with former Souths signing Edene Gebbie (PNG Fullback).

I recall (potential captain) James Tamou also stating that Laurie is first grade ready.
I generally don't like to predict team selections (as we'll find out soon enough in early March) but am fairly confident that if Laurie isn't named round 1, he'll get an opportunity in the Fullback spot pretty quickly.

Mbye also just stood down as captain, doesn't need to be playing 80 minutes. Makes a good 14, can play across the backline and at hooker. Expect that is the role he will play this season.

Heard this from my dad who is renowned to speak some shit so take with a grain of salt but apparently some time this week Storm are expected to announce the departure of Smith to the Titans and the announcement of JBrom and Finucane as co-caps.

Is there any reason Ah Mau's ownership is so low? Just over 2% with strange picks like NAS, Fifita, Frei, Te'o, Asiata ahead of him.

He's one of the few guys that has been in all of my drafts, along with Cook, Lolo, Watson, Liddle, Brailey and Turbo.

Priced at 27, he's averaged over 40 in 4 of his last 5 full seasons (only in 2016 did it slip to 33).

Ave in 30-40 minute stints is 35, so even with a very conservative estimate of his minutes there's 8 points of value there.

In 40-50 minute stints that jumps to 41, and jumps again to 48 in 50+ minute games.

I can only assume the worry is minutes with decent Warriors forward depth, but even then you'd assume a prop rotation of AFB, Ah Mau, Evans, JTB unless I'm missing something obvious?

BMM likely to play on an edge by the sounds of things, Katoa, Siro, Murchie all primarily edge, with Tevaga and Tohu to share time at lock?

Evans highest minutes average over a season is 34 in 2016, followed by 33 in 2019. JTB is only in his second year and averaged under 40 mins last year, and AFB has hovered around a ~50-minute average in the last three years. Just seems like a fairly safe estimate that Ah Mau gets ~45 mins which makes him great value, for mine better than Lodge, Ofa, BMM in a similar price range.

Is there something I'm missing or people just sleeping on him?

Any views on how the Dragons Fwds minutes will break down?

Is Alvaro likely to get back to 30-40mins in the middle?

mrbrownstone wrote:Is there any reason Ah Mau's ownership is so low? Just over 2% with strange picks like NAS, Fifita, Frei, Te'o, Asiata ahead of him.

He's one of the few guys that has been in all of my drafts, along with Cook, Lolo, Watson, Liddle, Brailey and Turbo.

Priced at 27, he's averaged over 40 in 4 of his last 5 full seasons (only in 2016 did it slip to 33).

Ave in 30-40 minute stints is 35, so even with a very conservative estimate of his minutes there's 8 points of value there.

In 40-50 minute stints that jumps to 41, and jumps again to 48 in 50+ minute games.

I can only assume the worry is minutes with decent Warriors forward depth, but even then you'd assume a prop rotation of AFB, Ah Mau, Evans, JTB unless I'm missing something obvious?

BMM likely to play on an edge by the sounds of things, Katoa, Siro, Murchie all primarily edge, with Tevaga and Tohu to share time at lock?

Evans highest minutes average over a season is 34 in 2016, followed by 33 in 2019. JTB is only in his second year and averaged under 40 mins last year, and AFB has hovered around a ~50-minute average in the last three years. Just seems like a fairly safe estimate that Ah Mau gets ~45 mins which makes him great value, for mine better than Lodge, Ofa, BMM in a similar price range.

Is there something I'm missing or people just sleeping on him?

Ssssshhhhhh he’s a POD as of now!

mrbrownstone wrote:Is there any reason Ah Mau's ownership is so low? Just over 2% with strange picks like NAS, Fifita, Frei, Te'o, Asiata ahead of him.

He's one of the few guys that has been in all of my drafts, along with Cook, Lolo, Watson, Liddle, Brailey and Turbo.

Priced at 27, he's averaged over 40 in 4 of his last 5 full seasons (only in 2016 did it slip to 33).

Ave in 30-40 minute stints is 35, so even with a very conservative estimate of his minutes there's 8 points of value there.

In 40-50 minute stints that jumps to 41, and jumps again to 48 in 50+ minute games.

I can only assume the worry is minutes with decent Warriors forward depth, but even then you'd assume a prop rotation of AFB, Ah Mau, Evans, JTB unless I'm missing something obvious?

BMM likely to play on an edge by the sounds of things, Katoa, Siro, Murchie all primarily edge, with Tevaga and Tohu to share time at lock?

Evans highest minutes average over a season is 34 in 2016, followed by 33 in 2019. JTB is only in his second year and averaged under 40 mins last year, and AFB has hovered around a ~50-minute average in the last three years. Just seems like a fairly safe estimate that Ah Mau gets ~45 mins which makes him great value, for mine better than Lodge, Ofa, BMM in a similar price range.

Is there something I'm missing or people just sleeping on him?

He is in my team... with very little confidence. Mainly due to depth and new coach. The coach has already said he wants an 80 minute hooker so that means there will probably be 3 middles and an edge on the bench... Likely make up

8. LAM
9. Egan
10. AFB
11. Katoa
12. BMM
13. Harris
14. Sironen
15. Tevaga
16. JTB
17. Evans/Curran/Afoa/Lawton...

I reckon he sees at least 40 minutes, which with LAM's ppm could still be a 45avg... but little confidence there.

mrbrownstone wrote:
Leeson Ah Mau

Is there something I'm missing or people just sleeping on him?

Rabbits21 wrote:
Ssssshhhhhh he’s a POD as of now!

One of 2 things will happen. And this applies not just to LAM but to every "secret" POD people are sitting on.

He'll be named to start in round 1 and everyone will become interested.

They won't get the start/role you were hoping for and you can just silently trade him out to a better option.

mrbrownstone wrote:Is there any reason Ah Mau's ownership is so low? Just over 2% with strange picks like NAS, Fifita, Frei, Te'o, Asiata ahead of him.

He's one of the few guys that has been in all of my drafts, along with Cook, Lolo, Watson, Liddle, Brailey and Turbo.

Priced at 27, he's averaged over 40 in 4 of his last 5 full seasons (only in 2016 did it slip to 33).

Ave in 30-40 minute stints is 35, so even with a very conservative estimate of his minutes there's 8 points of value there.

In 40-50 minute stints that jumps to 41, and jumps again to 48 in 50+ minute games.

I can only assume the worry is minutes with decent Warriors forward depth, but even then you'd assume a prop rotation of AFB, Ah Mau, Evans, JTB unless I'm missing something obvious?

BMM likely to play on an edge by the sounds of things, Katoa, Siro, Murchie all primarily edge, with Tevaga and Tohu to share time at lock?

Evans highest minutes average over a season is 34 in 2016, followed by 33 in 2019. JTB is only in his second year and averaged under 40 mins last year, and AFB has hovered around a ~50-minute average in the last three years. Just seems like a fairly safe estimate that Ah Mau gets ~45 mins which makes him great value, for mine better than Lodge, Ofa, BMM in a similar price range.

Is there something I'm missing or people just sleeping on him?

Asiata been in some team predictions as starting lock, no idea why.

Warriors forwards still very up in the air. They have lots of quality edges, BMM, Katoa, Sironen. Last season Harris spent most of his time in the middle, with huge minutes. AFB will play big minutes. Jazz has done nothing wrong, would still expect decent minutes off the bench 40-50 ish. Both Jazz and Harris were on the field at the same time often last season, with Harris normally playing at prop during those periods. If LAM is named on the bench, it will be hard to know what his minutes are going to be.

All a matter of comparison with other options. I am targeting middles that should be underpriced but have gun keeper potential for the season, plus looking at Watson and Gilbert. Need to spend money somewhere and mids look like a good place to spend more than in many other positions. Harder to find edges that could take the step up to gun keeper.

Fortitude wrote:Any views on how the Dragons Fwds minutes will break down?

Is Alvaro likely to get back to 30-40mins in the middle?

For middles, Vaughan has 1 spot locked in.

Kerr, Lawrie, Ellis, Faamausili, Merrin fighting with Alvaro for the other spots. (assuming Sims and Ford on the edges)


If I had to guess I'd say Kerr and Lawrie will start with Vaughan, and Alvaro might make the bench, but that's just a guess, i don't really know.

I'd rather Alvaro over LAM if they both look to have decent roles

I think LAM will start slow as he gets used to the pace of the game with the new rules.
AFB, Tohu and Jazz will be the big minute middles.

mrbrownstone wrote:Is there any reason Ah Mau's ownership is so low? Just over 2% with strange picks like NAS, Fifita, Frei, Te'o, Asiata ahead of him.

If you are using ownership percentages as a method of picking useful fantasy players, note that the autofill algorithm has a tendency to pack the team full of $228k nobodies.
Nobody is actually thinking Mitchell Frei is a good pick.

People under $300k that casuals have heard of also tend to be popular.

Basically there is almost zero reason to look at ownership percentage when trying to build a team.