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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Mulvy
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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler Empty NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Mulvy Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:07 pm

    Stats, Breakevens and more
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    toast
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    Post by toast Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:08 pm

    toast
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:19 pm

    First Slug, thanks.
    Stuffness
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    Post by Stuffness Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:21 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:First Slug, thanks.

    This still makes me giggle.
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    Post by mrbrownstone Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:28 pm

    Silly question, but may as well loop in Stefano over Turpin, right?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:31 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:Silly question, but may as well loop in Stefano over Turpin, right?

    No question.
    Stuffness
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    Post by Stuffness Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:35 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:Silly question, but may as well loop in Stefano over Turpin, right?

    yep
    Papadontbleach
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    Post by Papadontbleach Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:39 pm

    Man, I just got home from work drinks. Read the previous posts and fuck knows what happened but yay for looping in Isaako. Fuck I needed those 86 points. Will have to try and work out tomorrow what the F just happened.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:45 pm

    Well, trades are locked, no boom scores for my team, but can't complain about your two trade ins both scoring 62. Peachy another good score. Welch doing his bit, I thank him for his service, will be upgraded soon. Everyone has fifita.
    Mr Snrub
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    Post by Mr Snrub Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:46 pm

    If I knew Walters isn't just likely to change the halves pairing in a fortnight I'd take a Gamble on Tyson.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:50 pm

    @mrbrownstone wrote:Silly question, but may as well loop in Stefano over Turpin, right?

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler Giphy
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 12:13 am

    Isaako 86
    Milf 41
    Gambit 43
    Lodge 31
    Turpin 23
    Haas 62
    Riki 29
    TPJ 67

    Brimson 69
    Fog 62
    Fifita 48
    Peach 56
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Sat May 01, 2021 1:06 am

    Wow Reimis actually went massive on the wing... maybe he keeps that spot and keeps jennings out of the side?

    Happy with Fog as well, and 3/192 is an amazing start considering every man and his dog has Fifita. Looking forward to a good score this week and hopefully moving up in the ranks!
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sat May 01, 2021 3:29 am

    @Snatchpato wrote:Wow Reimis actually went massive on the wing... maybe he keeps that spot and keeps jennings out of the side?

    Happy with Fog as well, and 3/192 is an amazing start considering every man and his dog has Fifita. Looking forward to a good score this week and hopefully moving up in the ranks!

    Reimis played right ctr mate due to the rookie being brought on to the wing. He looked good but tbh 3 tries will do that to your score!
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Sat May 01, 2021 6:11 am

    @mattnz wrote:The 3/5 seems a rip off. It pays $1.80. If you already have 3 correct at $1.80 and received $2 odds on each of the other 2 players, it would only be paying the equivalent of $1.80 x 2 x 2 = $7.20, nothing close to the $20 odds

    Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.

    Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2 does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.

    In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.

    The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.

    BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!








    FaringdonSwirl
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Sat May 01, 2021 6:51 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.

    Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2  does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.

    In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.

    The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.

    BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!



    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler Giphy

    Would be interested in the math if you can be bothered
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sat May 01, 2021 7:09 am

    Still a bit annoyed Hynes try was pulled back for no reason, 50-odd score would have been great for WFB fill in

    Thinking he might get GK though if Papenhuyzen is still out because Munster couldn’t kick to save his life
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Sat May 01, 2021 7:39 am

    @FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler Giphy

    Would be interested in the math if you can be bothered

    Yes, of course. The gist of it is pretty simple. The detail can get a little complicated.

    First, the math assumes that each of the five outcomes are 50-50, and that each are independent. Both these assumptions can be argued, but generally fair to assume both I reckon.

    Then, in terms of figuring out what cut the house (draft stars) is taking:

    For the option where you need to pick 5 out of 5, that is a one in 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 chance. This means that of 32 different people each take one combination (and all combinations are taken), one will get it correct.

    So 32 people pay $20 = $640 but draft stars only pays out $400. So their cut is $240 profit out of $640 invested = 240/640 = 37.5%

    For the option where you need to get 3/5 (or more) correct, the math is a little more complicated. Its based on something called a Bernoulli trial. A Bernoulli trial is a random experiment with two outcomes, success and failure, where the probability of success is the same every time.

    This online calculator https://planetcalc.com/7044/ allows you to calculate the probability of k success outcomes in n Bernoulli trials with given success event probability.

    In short though, out of the 32 potential outcomes from the 5 options, 50% of them reflect 3 or more successes. I.e. if you randomly chose 5 guys in the draftstars comp, you will get 3/5 (or more right) on average.

    So, if 2 people pay $20 = $40 draft starts will pay out on average $1.8 *20 = $36, So their cut is $4 profit out of $40 = 10%

    Hopefully that is explained well enough...?

    Edit: Its actually calculating the probability of k successes where the math gets a little intense (but still very much learnable)

    P(k)={n \choose k}p^{k}q^{n-k}

    see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sat May 01, 2021 7:55 am

    @Dttragic2016 wrote:

    Reimis played right ctr mate due to the rookie being brought on to the wing. He looked good but tbh 3 tries will do that to your score!

    Maumalo and his 42 last week would like a chat with you 😂
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Sat May 01, 2021 8:01 am

    @FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler Giphy

    Would be interested in the math if you can be bothered

    Hopefully not taking R&T's thunder:

    STEP 1 is to work out how many possible outcomes they are.  There are 5 options with 2 outcomes.  So the possible outcomes are 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 (ie 2 to power of 5) = 32

    STEP 2 is to work out how may possible ways to win.  Two ways to do this.  
    a) Manual labour.  
    Pretty quickly you can workout that the 32 different options there is:
    1 way to get 5 right,
    5 ways to get 4 right,
    10 ways to get 3 right,
    10 ways to get 2 right,
    5 ways to get 1 right, and
    1 way to get 0 right

    b) Maths

    If you have n options, and you want to know the number of options to get exactly y right the formula is:  n! / [y! * (n-y)!]
    Where n! is 1 * 2 * 3 * ....* n

    So in this case, where n = 5.

    Number of ways to get 5 right = 5! / [5! * 0!] = 1
    Number of ways to get 4 right = 5! / [4! * 1!] = 5
    Number of ways to get 3 right = 5! / [3! * 2!] = 10
    Number of ways to get 2 right = 5! / [2! * 3!] = 10
    Number of ways to get 1 right = 5! / [1! * 4!] = 5    
    Number of ways to get 0 right = 5! / [0! * 5!] = 1

    STEP 3

    Probability of winning the pick 5 = number of ways to get 5 right / number of options = 1/32 = 3.1%.  For $1 bet, breakeven payout should be should be $32 rather than $20. Ie Payouut should be 60% higher

    Probability of winning the pick 3 of 5 = number of ways of getting 3, 4 or 5 right / number of options = (1+4+10)/32 = 15/32 = 46.9%.  For $1 bet, breakeven payout should be $2.13 rather than $1.80. Ie Payout should be 18% higher.


    All above assumes everything is 50/50 chance on each option.

      Current date/time is Fri May 14, 2021 2:49 pm