NRL Fantasy Fanatics



Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NRL Fantasy Fanatics

NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Archer
    Archer

    Posts : 6407
    Reputation : 2121
    Join date : 2016-01-12
    Location : I think this displays

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Archer Sat May 01, 2021 9:46 am

    I thought gamble seemed to straighten the attack a little and play more direct which gave more space to the guys outside him, like the try where he combined with Milf. That, the energy and seemingly doing an ok job in defence (it's hard to give anyone a pass from that game as it was entirely optional) should be an improvement most weeks for the bronies
    Revraiser
    Revraiser

    Posts : 9523
    Reputation : 3425
    Join date : 2015-10-21
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Revraiser Sat May 01, 2021 9:48 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:
    Spoiler:

    Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.

    Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2  does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.

    In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.

    The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.

    BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!









    Think the TPJ v MFoto one flipped, there was half a point in it on the buzzer and then updates come in hours later. 

    Edit: seems a winner, well done again.


    Last edited by Revraiser on Sat May 01, 2021 9:51 am; edited 1 time in total
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 9147
    Reputation : 2623
    Join date : 2018-03-11

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by mattnz Sat May 01, 2021 9:49 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Morning all - just wanted to point out that this is not how probability theory works and there is flaw in the logic of the post above.

    Matt's calculations above, the $1.80 x 2 x 2  does not reflect already having the first 3 correct (or at least a payout for that) and then needing a further 2/2 (to get 5/5) it reflects having any 3 out of 5 correct (very different to 3/3) and then getting a further 2/2.

    In fact, without showing the math, the odds draftstars are giving you for getting any 3/5 is actually better than they are giving you for getting 5/5 correct.

    The house is taking a 10% cut in the former, while they are taking nearly a 40% cut in the later! So unsurprisingly on both options (assuming each is a 50-50 call) the house wins, but without doubt you are better off having a crack at the 3/5 rather than the 5/5.

    BTW @mattnz were updates kind to you? hope you won mate!
    Thanks for the explanations. Updates were kind, needed Mofo to be given his TB at the end of the game, which came through in updates.

    Compared with a normal draft stars game, where depending on the number of participants, to turn $15 into $300 you need to be getting a top 10 finish. To do this you need to be picking 9 players that all perform great and have none of them get injured or rested in the game.

    I am seeing this as a much easier way to win, as you only need 5 outcomes to go your way, instead of 9 for similar odds.

    May have just been beginners luck, but will take a $400 win first up and looking forward to the next time they offer this option.
    Erin Moleman
    Erin Moleman

    Posts : 785
    Reputation : 212
    Join date : 2020-03-09

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Erin Moleman Sat May 01, 2021 9:52 am

    Hoping to turn stefano into grant with 1 trade next week. It’s only a matter of time before he goes crazy
    Khany
    Khany

    Posts : 1976
    Reputation : 562
    Join date : 2019-02-24

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Khany Sat May 01, 2021 9:55 am

    Possibly the tigers captains run will shed some light on possible team changes
    lewis9966
    lewis9966

    Posts : 362
    Reputation : 84
    Join date : 2017-01-20
    Location : UK

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by lewis9966 Sat May 01, 2021 9:58 am

    @Erin Moleman wrote:Hoping to turn stefano into grant with 1 trade next week. It’s only a matter of time before he goes crazy

    Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 23763
    Reputation : 6724
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 36
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am

    @lewis9966 wrote:

    Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game

    Yeah mate.
    Erin Moleman
    Erin Moleman

    Posts : 785
    Reputation : 212
    Join date : 2020-03-09

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Erin Moleman Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am

    @lewis9966 wrote:

    Did Grant start this week? I missed the Storm game

    Yeah started with cheese at lock. I think it should continue from now on. Got an early shower as well so close games he should be playing 80
    sajjos
    sajjos

    Posts : 1234
    Reputation : 930
    Join date : 2017-02-09
    Location : mum's basement

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by sajjos Sat May 01, 2021 10:04 am

    @Revraiser wrote:Is Gamble like that always or was he just trying to make an impression in his first grade opportunity?

    In response to your post, Gamble has this to say to a reporter

    Adrianoooo
    Adrianoooo

    Posts : 1480
    Reputation : 495
    Join date : 2018-03-19

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Adrianoooo Sat May 01, 2021 10:16 am

    @FalconSloth wrote:Apparently Daine Laurie is in doubt because of a hamstring issue

    I’d like to think this fucks over most people because I know I am
    easytiger
    easytiger

    Posts : 1203
    Reputation : 1060
    Join date : 2020-01-27
    Location : League 51 Party Island

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:16 am

    Gamble did come across as a bit of a douche

    But, I've got to say, the Bronco's bringing in a player who isn't quiet and inexperienced, and has an assertiveness and confidence and genuinely looks like he is passionate about the opportunity to be out there playing and desperate to win - well, that seems like something that they've been missing for a while. I think Gamble was instrumental in turning the momentum and there were points in the second half where the Bronco's played with a confidence not seen for quite some time.

    Of course I'll probably hate his mouthy face when they play the Tigers, but in the meantime I'm kind've happy for the Bronco's fans - it's never fun when your team is the current "basketcase of the NRL".
    easytiger
    easytiger

    Posts : 1203
    Reputation : 1060
    Join date : 2020-01-27
    Location : League 51 Party Island

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:18 am

    CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...

    But it's not for who you think it is...

    The big reveal:

    Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out

    https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/
    Mr Snrub
    Mr Snrub

    Posts : 1518
    Reputation : 579
    Join date : 2020-06-12

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Mr Snrub Sat May 01, 2021 10:21 am

    Surely I'll be smarter than to trade in a Broncos half but you can probably rule out Tom Dearden making many more appearances this year so Gamble just needs to perform better than Milford to keep his spot over Croft.
    ytsb
    ytsb

    Posts : 1314
    Reputation : 895
    Join date : 2020-03-04

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by ytsb Sat May 01, 2021 10:21 am

    @easytiger wrote:CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...

    But it's not for who you think it is...

    The big reveal:

    Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out

    https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Giphy
    Mr Snrub
    Mr Snrub

    Posts : 1518
    Reputation : 579
    Join date : 2020-06-12

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Mr Snrub Sat May 01, 2021 10:22 am

    @easytiger wrote:CONFIRMED: Zac Cini is in...

    But it's not for who you think it is...

    The big reveal:

    Jimmy the (grounded) jet is out

    https://www.weststigers.com.au/news/2021/05/01/zac-cini-to-make-nrl-debut/

    No Roberts means I'm playing with 16 this week. Oh no what am I going to do without those 10 points.
    Adrianoooo
    Adrianoooo

    Posts : 1480
    Reputation : 495
    Join date : 2018-03-19

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Adrianoooo Sat May 01, 2021 10:24 am

    Oh no what am I going to do without Roberts 15 points this week

    Damn, 16 players for me then I guess


    Last edited by Adrianoooo on Sat May 01, 2021 10:25 am; edited 1 time in total
    easytiger
    easytiger

    Posts : 1203
    Reputation : 1060
    Join date : 2020-01-27
    Location : League 51 Party Island

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by easytiger Sat May 01, 2021 10:24 am

    @ytsb wrote:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Giphy

    Yeah, it sux big time to lose the 8 points Robert's was almost guaranteed to score...  

    The moment Roberts was ruled out:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Giphy
    mattnz
    mattnz

    Posts : 9147
    Reputation : 2623
    Join date : 2018-03-11

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by mattnz Sat May 01, 2021 10:26 am

    If Roberts, Teddy and Laurie are out, going to be lots of teams in trouble and playing short this week.
    wolfking
    wolfking
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 23763
    Reputation : 6724
    Join date : 2016-04-26
    Age : 36
    Location : Brisbane

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 10:29 am

    This would suggest Laurie is fine, no?
    Chewie
    Chewie

    Posts : 9962
    Reputation : 5599
    Join date : 2016-02-02
    Location : Millennium Falcon

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 3 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 10:31 am

    Thanks for the feedback lads.
    And yes every team needs at least one knob...and an enforcer... and a guy that never shuts up and tells everyone what to do

      Current date/time is Sat May 15, 2021 12:54 pm