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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 8:05 am

    For picking 3/5 there are few enough options you can just type them out

    Here's all 32 possibilities for betting on 5 outcomes, where outcomes where you win 3/5 highlighted.
    WWWWW
    WWWWL
    WWWLW
    WWWLL
    WWLWW
    WWLWL
    WWLLW
    WWLLL
    WLWWW
    WLWWL
    WLWLW
    WLWLL
    WLLWW
    WLLWL
    WLLLW
    WLLLL
    LWWWW
    LWWWL
    LWWLW
    LWWLL
    LWLWW
    LWLWL
    LWLLW
    LWLLL
    LLWWW
    LLWWL
    LLWLW
    LLWLL
    LLLWW
    LLLWL
    LLLLW
    LLLLL



    By comparison, if you just bet on a single number on a roulette table, a $10 bet would have odds of 1/37 of winning, but the house only pays you on odds of 1/36 (assuming there is just a single 0, some roulette tables have 00 as well)
    Which is a 2.7% advantage to the house, or much better odds than draftstars give.

    Of course you can't study form to predict roulette results but you can in fantasy, which is where you can get your edge playing draft stars.
    But a lot of the time its just trying to guess which of 2 players will score a try

    eg in the Sharks v Storm matchups, in 3 of the 5 matchups a try scorer beat a non-try scorer by less than 8 points. (Reimiss Smith smashed Mawene Hiroti, and Olam beat Hynes in the other 2)


    Last edited by Milchcow on Sat May 01, 2021 8:20 am; edited 2 times in total
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sat May 01, 2021 8:05 am

    I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish 😂
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sat May 01, 2021 8:12 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish 😂

    It's not possible to be a good gambler on casino house edge games.

    Would love to hear Matt's roulette system, btw.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 8:19 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I feel like all of this should make me a better gambler but I am still completely rubbish 😂

    @rhinoceroo wrote:
    It's not possible to be a good gambler on casino house edge games.

    Would love to hear Matt's roulette system, btw.

    Indeed, the best way to gamble is not to bet any money.

    Or at the very least, treat any bet as money spent on entertainment, and if you win anything back its a bonus.
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sat May 01, 2021 8:28 am

    @Milchcow wrote:



    Indeed, the best way to gamble is not to bet any money.

    Or at the very least, treat any bet as money spent on entertainment, and if you win anything back its a bonus.

    Yeah this is me. $20 bucks a weekend on a lil horse multi
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sat May 01, 2021 8:32 am

    Anywho just need to toot the Brimson horn.

    More of this please mate would be appreciated.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat May 01, 2021 8:34 am

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 43 - I met up with the Gambler - Page 2 Captur52
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Sat May 01, 2021 8:40 am

    I am liking all the posts about the math but I can't be bothered reading them. Its too early in the morning and I haven't had my coffee yet. To put it mildly I dont like my odds without the caffeine.
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    Post by sajjos Sat May 01, 2021 8:41 am

    @multiple.scoregasms You ended up playing Reimis ?
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Sat May 01, 2021 9:14 am

    @sajjos wrote:@multiple.scoregasms You ended up playing Reimis ?

    He's got him coming in for Tedesco so shot MS
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 9:16 am

    Those posts and calculations on odds early Saturday morning are inappropriate... just sayin'
    ....


    Haha, nah well done R&T, Marlin and Milch. Some quality posts there


    Last edited by Chewie on Sat May 01, 2021 9:29 am; edited 1 time in total
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Sat May 01, 2021 9:28 am

    I didn't see the games last night. How did the Broncos look? Did Gamble and Milf make a difference?
    Or did the Titans have a bad night out?
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    Post by FalconSloth Sat May 01, 2021 9:30 am

    Titans defence was shit. Every time the broncos passed the ball more than once the Titans found themselves short on an edge. Gamble and Milford didn’t play that well the Titans just played shit
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    Post by FalconSloth Sat May 01, 2021 9:32 am

    Apparently Daine Laurie is in doubt because of a hamstring issue
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sat May 01, 2021 9:34 am


    Gamble was pumped though. Went super saiyan when Brimson got binned. Which was a bit over the top given Broncos were still behind at that point. But points for enthusiasm
    rectangle
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    Post by rectangle Sat May 01, 2021 9:36 am

    @Chewie wrote:I didn't see the games last night. How did the Broncos look? Did Gamble and Milf make a difference?
    Or did the Titans have a bad night out?

    Titans just couldn’t tackle. Milf and Gamble were ok. Gamble seemed to bring a bit of something to the team. He’s a grade A knob, but sometimes you need a knob in your life.
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    Post by Weiland Sat May 01, 2021 9:38 am

    I thought Gamble was a great addition to the Broncos. May not have set the game alight skills wise but having a guy who won't back down and puts in 100% at all the times was just what the Broncos needed.
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Sat May 01, 2021 9:43 am

    @rectangle wrote:

    Titans just couldn’t tackle. Milf and Gamble were ok. Gamble seemed to bring a bit of something to the team. He’s a grade A knob, but sometimes you need a knob in your life.

    That's the only reason the misses keeps me around.
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    Post by Khany Sat May 01, 2021 9:43 am

    Gamble has the Gutho gene, where people just want to punch him in the head.
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    Post by Revraiser Sat May 01, 2021 9:43 am

    Is Gamble like that always or was he just trying to make an impression in his first grade opportunity?

      Current date/time is Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:58 am