NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 11 - The case of the mistrusted team lists

mattnz wrote:There are going to be significantly greater differences in strategy this season between teams that are heavily focused on head to head and those that are playing for overall.

Origin byes are going to be much more important for overall players and at the end of the season, head to head teams wont want any Souths (Latrell, Murray, Cook, Graham - Grandfinal - R26 bye), Broncos (Carrigan, Haas, Staggs - R25 bye), Cowboys (Drinkwater, Cotter, Robson, Holmes - R24 bye), or Bulldogs players (Mahoney - R23 bye).

Overall players should be able to pick up a lot of ranks without these restrictions on their teams.

Overall players are always ranked way ahead of H2H players, who ignore the big byes and score several hundred points less in bye rounds.

I don't know how many purely H2H players there are anyway. Suspect most start gunning for overall and then say they're H2H if everything starts going south.

Mulvy wrote:

Yeah I've been thinking this more and more. I'm sure someone did some analysis before too which, I'm gonna paraphrase, shows that, future predictions based off previous stats follows something like an exponential decay graph. In other words recent stats are way more important and it drops off pretty quick. So 2021 is getting long in the tooth anyway, but yeah I agree, it was particularly an outlier.

There is something in NFL fantasy that basically amounts to previous season data being worthless once you have half a season of current year data. I don't think it directly correlates with NRL because they are such different sports (for example in the NFL a running back is only ever a running back with few exceptions where as in the NRL you might have someone move between fullback, centre, halves, wing)

Using this approach would have seen guys like Jo Ofa and Lane be popular pick ups last year. It's hard to turn off the blinders and ignore previous stats which is a big part of the game I need to improve on

Keeping my eyes on Frizell to be a not-so-sneaky pick-up in a couple weeks, sub-$600k would be a steal for the points he can put up when not injury-affected.

Mulvy wrote:

If Ilias is a quick cash maker, that's exactly what we want, so great. Not convinced he makes enough though, maybe? Thanks for the advice re: Ford, is there a world where he holds his spot?? I'm going to watch the game again I think. New coach, so who knows?

Hmm when you think Jazz is building fitness in NSW this week, I honestly can't see Ford keeping 80 minutes in a couple weeks. Webster will have to find a way to give Harris, Walker, Tevaga time in the forward pack, along with Ford, Niuokre and Curran in the second row. Who knows how Webster is going to balance that.

With Ilias, if he can hold a 40 average he'll still make $100k, which is probably enough early in the season, and a handy bench guy?

mattnz wrote:Graham being suspended for a few weeks could see Trindall make the bench when Hynes returns. If he has a negative BE it could be handy

Have you seen his interchange scores?

syn13 wrote:Keeping my eyes on Frizell to be a not-so-sneaky pick-up in a couple weeks, sub-$600k would be a steal for the points he can put up when not injury-affected.

Definitely a good shout. No origin either probably

syn13 wrote:Keeping my eyes on Frizell to be a not-so-sneaky pick-up in a couple weeks, sub-$600k would be a steal for the points he can put up when not injury-affected.

Was in my team a while before final draft. As soon as announced HIA fail went top of my watch list

syn13 wrote:Keeping my eyes on Frizell to be a not-so-sneaky pick-up in a couple weeks, sub-$600k would be a steal for the points he can put up when not injury-affected.

Glass very full take is he could be a perfect timed swap for Carty all going well

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

There is something in NFL fantasy that basically amounts to previous season data being worthless once you have half a season of current year data. I don't think it directly correlates with NRL because they are such different sports (for example in the NFL a running back is only ever a running back with few exceptions where as in the NRL you might have someone move between fullback, centre, halves, wing)

Using this approach would have seen guys like Jo Ofa and Lane be popular pick ups last year. It's hard to turn off the blinders and ignore previous stats which is a big part of the game I need to improve on

The ideal scenario is where historical stats confirm current year stats, why I am so hot on guys like Harris, Mahoney, Carrigan.

Loomer wrote:

Have you seen his interchange scores?

Yes, why I want a negative BE Hanging around another week, you never know who else could pick up an injury or suspension after others have dropped him and he becomes the gift that keeps on giving.

hot take, trindall out scores ilias this week

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Mulvy wrote:

Yeah I've been thinking this more and more. I'm sure someone did some analysis before too which, I'm gonna paraphrase, shows that, future predictions based off previous stats follows something like an exponential decay graph. In other words recent stats are way more important and it drops off pretty quick. So 2021 is getting long in the tooth anyway, but yeah I agree, it was particularly an outlier.

There is something in NFL fantasy that basically amounts to previous season data being worthless once you have half a season of current year data. I don't think it directly correlates with NRL because they are such different sports (for example in the NFL a running back is only ever a running back with few exceptions where as in the NRL you might have someone move between fullback, centre, halves, wing)

Using this approach would have seen guys like Jo Ofa and Lane be popular pick ups last year. It's hard to turn off the blinders and ignore previous stats which is a big part of the game I need to improve on

2021 is also particularly less relevant because the rules interpretation that year led to vastly increased fantasy scores

Plus, if your player relied on kick metres, tackle breaks or offloads for bulk points, then you can't just look at the players score totals, you need to make some manual adjustments given the scoring changes

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:hot take, trindall out scores ilias this week

Trindall 80 Ilias 79 I’m hoping

Trades are now looking like Cheese/Talau to Thompson/Carty.

The Carty Party chat has increased the FOMO to levels I can no longer resist. The only problem is it leaves me without WFB cover for a week. Can look to rectify it next week

Camo123 wrote:I decided to do a Rabbits and ask NRL Feedback about the CNK try save on Ponga.

This is their response:

Spoiler:

Well that’s totally unacceptable.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Well that’s totally unacceptable.

Which one?
Camo using your template or their response?

I'm still interested in how JDB goes once back. Seems the only 80 min option at the drags.

sajjos wrote:
Which one?
Camo using your template or their response?

Their response piss weak!

MF wrote:

Trindall 80 Ilias 79 I’m hoping

THats why ive paired them (joke)