Milchcow 2023

Trades
Cheese/Miller/Haas -> Hopgood/Tohu/Ponga

Have thought long and hard about getting Lemuelu in (likely for Alamoti)
Pros - he's one of the best CTR scorers, gives me an extra score this week (would get a 0 at 2nd CTR without him)
Cons - overpaying by a bit thanks to the 93 a few weeks ago, uses up bank I have for R14 upgrades.


Current best team is

Cook
JDB Horse Harris
Hopgood Preston
Cleary SJ
Bird Smith
Teddy Drinkwater Ponga

Boyd Bula Burton Loiero
Ford Nikorima HEdwards Alamoti

For final 17 these are the moves I am looking at

Dylan Edwards in ASAP after R13, only 1 bye left and probably the best WFB for total points from R14 on. Drinkwater looking the likely tradeout for him at this stage

Ipapalii/Bateman/Nikora in ASAP after R13
All 3 play both of the last 2 big byes. May go Bateman as he's cheapest, Loiero/Preston amongst the tradeout contenders, or maybe Burton. If Nikorima can make some cash quick he could be the one to go

Fifita/Hynes/Haas - want them all after origin. Not sure how I am going to afford it. Injuries/form may make the tradeouts clear
Will need some downgrades to fund them, so hoping something turns up. Don't have a definite plan of how to get them in

Then its just a matter of trying to get in people like Harry Grant, a good 2nd CTR and whatever other upgrades trades and cash allows.

If Edwards, Ford, Nikorima all make some cash in the next few weeks, and a viable <$250k player makes himself known, it will cause less stress.

Also relying on R13 trade ins Tohu and Ponga to stay on the field (same as many people in this regard)

Nice plan. I’ve fixated on this first bye a bit too much (with only 10 players I should have planned earlier but oh well). Definitely looking forward to looking at some new players and finding ways to get them in to the team. 

Hoping Sele and Nikorima give me one more good cash gain this week before looking to move them on next week. Like you said the cheapie emerging will make things much easier. Look forward to seeing how things go this week

695 for the week, now up to 408th

Team for this week, pre-trades, pending origin backups

Cook
JDB Horse Tohu
Loiero Preston
Cleary SJ
Bird Lemuelu
Teddy Drinkwater Bula

Boyd Burton Hedwards Ford
Ponga Hopgood KNik BillySmith

$140k in the bank
Would like to make 2 trades, bringing in Dylan Edwards, and one of iPap/Bateman. May also need a cashout to justify that

Potential trade outs by the end of the origin period - Kodi Nikorima, Jackson Ford, Tanah Boyd, Scott Drinkwater, Matt Burton, Trent Loiero. Harrison Edwards will go if he can make enough cash to be useful
Shaun Johnson undecided if he is trade out potential or season keeper.

Some of those are more urgent than others. Some have money to make, some have useful byes to play. So just a matter of timing everything correctly to maximise points/cash.

I'm up to rank 267. That is almost L1 territory

Brought in Bateman over iPap which helped cover for having (C)leary and JDB
Only 7 trades left - was planning on a zero trade week this week, but probably will have to move Cleary on. Not ideal as it also means another trade bringing him in again later.

Cook
Horse Tohu Hopgood
Bateman Preston
Burton SJ
BillySMith Lemuelu
Tedesco Edwards Bula

Turpin Loiero Ponga Hedwards
Nikorima JDB CLeary Drinkwater


So Cleary to best available (Moses a good chance due to playing 16+19 plu shui sbye being in a generally friendly R18) Not locked into a HLF though so could go iPap or someone like that

Have to really conserve trades though, so won't be going too hard in R16+19 Just tread water and hope to come home with a strong 17

Main plan is that Haas + Fifita + Hynes continue to put up below average scores for the next few week when they play so I can afford them more easily.
Also need to work out a 2nd CTR that isn't Billy Smith. Almost grabbed Kotoni Staggs last week - that would have been nice. But got Turpin instead which was just as useful

Looking at Cleary trades, there's not a lot of point trading Cleary to Moses for me

Already have 12 for R16 including Dedwards, Bula, Drinkwater at WFB and Burton/Ponga in the halves

Can only play 11 because I have Bateman/Loiero/Preston at EDG, so down a MID and a CTR

With Billy Smith and Lemuelu my only CTRs, tempted to go Cleary to a CTR, bank the cash and have a big bankroll

Then I don't need to make trades next week, except maybe for injury or surprise origin callup

With only 7 (+8) trades left there's no point bringing in a short term cash cow.
Anyone that comes in has to be traded in on the assumption they  never leave my team


Sort of stacked for R19 as well

JDB, Horse, Tohu, Hopgood, Bateman, Preston to go into 5 spots.
With current squad have 13 players but as well as one of the above Nikorima has to miss out too

Being down a CTR in both 16+19 makes Cleary to Penisini/Talakai a tempting option

R17 would be a big problem but just that 1 trade could go a long way to seeing me through for 5 rounds. Injuries/form will stuff with me but I'd have nearly $700k in the bank to get in Hynes/Haas/Cleary/Fifita after origin for guys like Burton/Loiero/Drinkwater
Probably need a downgrade too, just have to hope one appears

Nice update Milchow

I reckon just the one trade to Penisini
He is an exciting player with a solid floor and high ceiling.
Throw in his bye schedule along with being a fairly durable player and he is worth throwing into your pool of players as hopefully set and forget in the centre spot for the run home.

He goes under the radar a bit and still averaging 46pts with only a handful of tries and does it without any fanfare.
Gut feel with his upcoming schedule and the eels getting troops back I think he averages a bit more than this

Then you can sit tight and see how the hand Fittler deals next week

12 players looks great for round 16 without handicapping the following weeks or burning too many precious trades.

Regardless of what happens he is a huge upgrade on Billy Smith
As for round 19, that will be tough for different reasons......Who to leave out.

My Current 21, and my plans

Damien Cook - want to hold all season, but playing origin makes it tough, Will hold him for 17+18. Potentially trade out for R19.

Jack De Belin, Corey Horsburgh, Tohu Harris - you're in it for the long haul guys. Don't get injured

J'maine Hopgood - think I'll trade him to Haas after 19. If Parra get back to full strength I don't trust his scoring. not the worst if I have to hold onto him

John Bateman - no trade out plans

Jacob Preston - will be upgraded after origin. perhaps to Fifita. Just try to hit the sweet spot of points vs cash.

Matt Burton - due for an upgrade, perhaps to Hynes this week. Otherwise he'll be gone soon

Kalyn Ponga - I'll do a deal with Kalyn, if he doesn't get injured, I won't trade him. He's hot and cold so will try to use him as loop option when possible when I'm at full strength

Will Penisini, Connelly Lemuelu - my 2 chief CTRs for the run home. If Bird can prove himself fit and able I may bring him in but I am in no rush given his recent knee issues

Billy Smith - may downgrade for cash, but he's my only CTR cover, so will probably keep him, to be played when Penisini/Lemuelu are on a bye.

James Tedesco, Dylan Edwards, Jahream Bula - probably my 3 starting WFB for the run home
Will consider plays for Latrell or Turbo after origin if it work out price wise and either of them look like hitting sustained form

Scott Drinkwater - to be traded out, probably around R19/20, unless he does enough in the next 3 weeks to suggest he's a better option than the 3 above. Every chance he can oust Bula, whoc might slow down at some point.

Shaun Johnson - keeper half is the plan

Trent Loiero - to be traded soon, perhaps this week for Hynes. About to drop cash so just trying to work out if he's worth holding for R17 numbers, Low score last week doesn't worry me by itself as it can happen to edge forwards in a 50 point flogging, but the dropped money may make other upgrades harder

Kodi Nikorima - to be upgraded/cashed out in the next month

Harrison Edwards - you're gone next week buddy. preliminary trade is for Klese Haas, as a cashout who has hopefully got himself a starting spot in a full strength team

Jake Turpin, to be cashed out once Smith returns to starting, hopefully with some more cash to go along with the $100k I have already


Trade in targets
Hynes - this week
Haas - just just try time it around origin / breakeven)
Fifita - last score being low means i can wait for a price drop or 2.
Grant - think I want a better hooker than Cook. Need one for rounds 20+26 for sure

Then keeping an eye on Cam Murray, Jack Bird. Maybe Koroisau if he comes back well
Yeo would be good but I have good MIDs, and don't think he'd be worth a trade, but if all else is goign well I may try get him in
Turbo/Latrell as WFB upgrades but with trades low, if injuries hit might just stick with what I have

Downgrades
Simpkin - his byes don't line up well. Don't need him this week, doesn't play next week. if he's not too expensive might get him for R18

Klese Haas - perhaps the most tempting <$300k player and after this week has finished his btes. Could be a decent 19th/20th man

Brendan Hands - if the Josh Hodgson injury turns into him being dropped
Sandon Smith - if Sam Walker ends up out of favour and Manu goes back to centre

Nick Cotric - probably not, but if I need a downgrade and a CTR option, he's cheap. Remember when people used to want to own him. Would need to at least be starting though

rhinoceroo wrote:Good write up. No mention of Cleary in it. Depends when he comes back, I suppose, but if it's - like - R20, would you risk running that long without him?

Probably Drinkwater to Cleary, the week after Cleary next plays 80 minutes, assuming I can afford it.

I've just done some preliminary budgeting there's a decent chance I can afford the trades I want, if nobody gets injured, and guys like Turpin can get me a month of decent scores.

Basically the big call for me is Loiero or Burton to Hynes

If I hold Loiero for the next 2 weeks, he may drop too much cash and put future upgrades in jeopardy.
But his R17 scoring will be useful (R16 he'd just be looped)

Burton to Hynes makes more sense positionally and for bye cover, just don't want to make it and then be $20k short on my last upgrade after origin

Basically I have 14 trades left for the season

Initial planning is that
Burton, Preston, KNik, Turpin, Loiero, Drinkwater, HEdwards
will become
Hynes, Cleary, Grant, Fifita, Big Haas, Little Haas, Simpkin

2 downgrades and existing bank to get 5 guns in.

Can't afford those trades on current prices, but Turpin is making money, Fifita + Cleary losing money
Edwards and Knik might make a little before I sell. So there's a chance I can afford it without any other downgrades.
If not I have to find some money from somewhere (possibly by cashing Simpkin out after a few weeks price rises) Its one reason why I am considering Loiero to Hynes rather than Burton to Hynes
Sacrifice R17 points in order to have a batter chance of affording a good 18 scorers by round 21.
Also have Hopgood as a potential keeper or trade-out, depending on what happens with Parra pack minutes


That would be 8 of my 14 trades, leaving 6 trades to deal with injuries, and/or make any upgrades I can manage. Stuff like bringing in Yeo, Bird, Latrell, Turbo, whoever looks like they are going on a run of scores in the last 6 weeks (or more realistically, whichever player has dropped enough in price that I can afford them when I need to trade due to injury)

Milchcow wrote:Basically I have 14 trades left for the season

Initial planning is that
Burton, Preston, KNik, Turpin, Loiero, Drinkwater, HEdwards
will become
Hynes, Cleary, Grant, Fifita, Big Haas, Little Haas, Simpkin

2 downgrades and existing bank to get 5 guns in.

Can't afford those trades on current prices, but Turpin is making money, Fifita + Cleary losing money
Edwards and Knik might make a little before I sell. So there's a chance I can afford it without any other downgrades.
If not I have to find some money from somewhere (possibly by cashing Simpkin out after a few weeks price rises) Its one reason why I am considering Loiero to Hynes rather than Burton to Hynes
Sacrifice R17 points in order to have a batter chance of affording a good 18 scorers by round 21.
Also have Hopgood as a potential keeper or trade-out, depending on what happens with Parra pack minutes


That would be 8 of my 14 trades, leaving 6 trades to deal with injuries, and/or make any upgrades I can manage. Stuff like bringing in Yeo, Bird, Latrell, Turbo, whoever looks like they are going on a run of scores in the last 6 weeks (or more realistically, whichever player has dropped enough in price that I can afford them when I need to trade due to injury)

Haha so KHaas is getting some traction. Seems like I may need to find room for him. Nice shopping list too, reminds me I may need to do something similar

Origin selections made Burtons to Hyne an easy trade this week.

Have opted against Nikorimas to Simpkin

Won't play Simpkin this week or next, and will play Nikorima next week.
I'm hoping Simpkin can limit price rise to $30-40k this week, and then can re-evaluate in R18 if I still want to get him or not. Plenty of time for injuries/form to throw up other options.
If he goes up $60+k it will be annoying, but will deal with that later. Just means I may need an extra trade for downgrades to get my ideal 17 together post origin.

Milchcow wrote:
Origin selections made Burtons to Hyne an easy trade this week.

Have opted against Nikorimas to Simpkin

Won't play Simpkin this week or next, and will play Nikorima next week.
I'm hoping Simpkin can limit price rise to $30-40k this week, and then can re-evaluate in R18 if I still want to get him or not. Plenty of time for injuries/form to throw up other options.
If he goes up $60+k it will be annoying, but will deal with that later. Just means I may need an extra trade for downgrades to get my ideal 17 together post origin.

I can see Simpkin racking up a fair few MT's against NAS, I think what you've done is the right move

Team this week pre trades

Turpin
JDB Horse TohuHopgood Loiero
SJ Ponga
Penisini Lemuel
Edwards Drinkwater Teddy

BillySmith Nikorima Cook HEdwards
Hynes Preston Bateman Bula


Not willing to ditch any of Hynes Preston Bateman Bula, so max 17 on the park.
If I'd been ion top of things, I would have traded Hewards to Simpkin last week once Edwards was ruled out. Saved myself $50k and not lost any points

Looking for an Edwards cashout now, I think its down to Simpkin (I probably have a spare trade left to move him on when Koro comes back) or Hands (and hope Hodgson stays away) Both play R19 where I need a hooker, and both cheapish
Otherwise its take a punt on someone like Jed Cartwright and hope for the best.


If I go Simpkin, I'll bring him in for Nikorima next week
Then I can upgrade Hedwards to Haas or Grant this week. Probably Grant, I think Haas might get a lower workload in R17+20 and be more affordable later.
If I do bring in a cashout this week, might make Loiero to Haas/Grant. Just a shame I didn't ditch him 2 weeks ago for an extra $80k. Just been a bit of a dud end to his time in my team

Milchcow wrote:
Team this week pre trades

Turpin
JDB Horse Tohu
Hopgood Loiero
SJ Ponga
Penisini Lemuel
Edwards Drinkwater Teddy

BillySmith Nikorima Cook HEdwards
Hynes Preston Bateman Bula


Not willing to ditch any of Hynes Preston Bateman Bula, so max 17 on the park.
If I'd been ion top of things, I would have traded Hewards to Simpkin last week once Edwards was ruled out. Saved myself $50k and not lost any points

Looking for an Edwards cashout now, I think its down to Simpkin (I probably have a spare trade left to move him on when Koro comes back) or Hands (and hope Hodgson stays away) Both play R19 where I need a hooker, and both cheapish
Otherwise its take a punt on someone like Jed Cartwright and hope for the best.


If I go Simpkin, I'll bring him in for Nikorima next week
Then I can upgrade Hedwards to Haas or Grant this week. Probably Grant, I think Haas might get a lower workload in R17+20 and be more affordable later.
If I do bring in a cashout this week, might make Loiero to Haas/Grant. Just a shame I didn't ditch him 2 weeks ago for an extra $80k. Just been a bit of a dud end to his time in my team

Feels like most of this year we have expected these scores from him with his lack of attacking game.
Perhaps he’s suffering from a bit of burnout from playing 80 most weeks. He has left my team for Grant this week pending any Origin shenanigans.

Was about to ask how are you covering Penisini next week, but just saw Billy the kid in there.
Team looking pretty solid once those guys on bye are plugged in

I dropped 200 ranks last week as I missed a few key players

Same might happen again this week, although there are others also in a tricky position. Should have a good team to end the bye period, problem is so will most others, so just got to hope for a good run with injuries and that the right players hit form for me to get a decent rank

Milchcow wrote:
I dropped 200 ranks last week as I missed a few key players

Same might happen again this week, although there are others also in a tricky position. Should have a good team to end the bye period, problem is so will most others, so just got to hope for a good run with  injuries and that the right players hit form for me to get a decent rank

Are you thinking that trades are key once the bye period ends? 
Teams are all looking pretty solid now so you’d have to think to make any big moves in rank you will need all of the big guns and hope to take advantage of injuries/form drops by sideways trading?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Are you thinking that trades are key once the bye period ends? 
Teams are all looking pretty solid now so you’d have to think to make any big moves in rank you will need all of the big guns and hope to take advantage of injuries/form drops by sideways trading?

I think there are a bunch of final 17 guns that people won't own due to origin/injury

As a shortlist, I doubt many people have more than a couple of Haas, Grant, Fifita, Cleary, Bird, Yeo. I think those with enough bank to get a bunch of those players in by round 21 will be setup well
After that its a matter of hoping for luck with injuries, and being able to pivot to the players who hit form in the run home and become a must have (potentially guys like Turbo, Latrell, DCE)

I've locked in Hewards to Grant this week

Loiero going to go for a cashout

Shoutout to Papadontbleach for a good rundown of the options here
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2248p100-nrl-fantasy-2023-part-64-cook-ctr-dpp-when#719650

Have a starting 13 before trades, so position not a concern this week, but might matter for future coverage
If none of my starting team get injured, I probably have capacity to bring in one cash cow to trade out later, but its better if I get someone i can definitely keep

Ones I am interested in

Brendan Hands - its sort of a punt on Hogdson having no/limited role going forward, at least not in the next few weeks whilst origin players are out. If he does require a trade out should at least have made some money first. Think he's good for close to 40 average with no Hodgson, which is pretty good for his price. If Cook plays origin 3 I need a hooker that week also has potentially handy HLF DPP
the current front runner

Sandon Smith - effectively base price, and Sam Walker dropped then injured. Could also go close to 40 average if he keeps starting. Like Hands, should at least make a profit before selling if he does need to be moved on. main advantage over Hands is the $100k cheaper price. Main disadvantage is not a hooker. Both have potential long term job security but no guaranteed

Jed Cartwright being able to cover CTR whilst paying edge is great, but I have no faith it will continue for long enough to be useful.
As a short term play he's probably not too bad though. Don't think I'll have confidence to take a punt. Entirely possible he makes $40k then gets benched and you're left with a dead spot that's hard to move on.

For future planning. If Seb Kris can drop a bit of cash this week, he might not be too bad as a WFB/CTR cash out. Keeping an eye on him and McGrady to possibly cashout Billy Smith to
McGrady has an issue in that he plays for the same team as lemuelu, so doesn't help in round 12 when they are both ion the bye.