Milchcow 2023

spare

Don't think I'll start with this team, but just posting it here in case I want to recreate it closer to lockout

Just trying to fit Cleary, Cook, Haas, Latrell, Tino all into 1 team
Think the rest of the team is too weak, but it fits in Cleary as captain - Cook/Haas/Latrell are all big guns that play first 12 weeks, and I think Tino is most likely of the midrangers to step up so happy to wear the bye for him

Would like a better 2nd half (Doueihi ideally) and a few other players I'd like but no room for.

Just posting in some positional analysis

here's some MIDs I currently am looking at


Cameron Murray $904k
One of the viable non Cleary/Hynes captaincy options. Advantage of Murray is that his first by round 13.
Better than Cleary (R3) or Hynes (R6) so you can stick him as captain until origin 1.
Probably trade him out after 12 (plays max 4 of next 8/) or at least after R15 (plays 2 of next 5)
Barring 1st minute HIA his lowest score last year was 45, which is the sort of floor you want. Only went under 57 three times
You have to fork out the money, but he's a solid, bye friendly captaincy option


Payne Haas $809k
$100k cheaper than Murray. Not bad when 2022 was the only year Murray has outscored Haas.
Haas normally gives solid 60+ scores, but last year he dropped to 56. He was injury affected though
Maybe if he can play a game without clutching hi shoulder every 2 minuets he'll get back to mega-Haas
Maybe he'll be overtaken by the next guy on the list

Patrick Carrigan $716k
Everyone expects big things from Carrigan this year. His stats were good last year, but at 60 minutes and a 50 average, how much room is there to improve?
Carrigan and Haas can both play big minutes, obviously you want that to fall in favour of whichever one you own.
If Carrigan can consistently play over 60 minutes, then the value is there. But there are other slightly discounted MIDs also offering the same thing.
Which one do you trust?
Broncos are bye friendly, so either Haas and/or Carrigan are good to hold up until origin, and should provide a decent VC option

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui $771k
Tino averaged 47 at lock last year, then moved to prop for the last 5 games and that jumped to 65.
Is that enough to accept as the new normal? If he starts 2023 how he finished 2022, then he's close to a must have.
If you don't start with him, he'll be someone to keep an eye on closely, because you may need to move quickly on him if he starts on fire.

Reuben Cotter $744k
Had a breakout season last year, where he arguably overtook Taumalolo as the premier forward at the Cowboys (certainly in Fantasy if not real life)
He averaged 56 pre-origin and 46 post origin, as he played 10 minutes less per week.
Which Cotter will we get to start the year? Bye friendly playing every week until origin 1.
Personally I think there is less risk if you spring for one of the other premium mids


Joe Tapine $790k
He's always promised a lot in fantasy but not always consistently delivered. until 2022 when he lifted his average to 55.
Can he lift it again? Or take it up yet another level? He's promised not to let last year be a one-off, which in my mind sets off "training the house down" alarm bells
Its a lot of money to spend if he doesn't improve on last year


Christian Welch $638k
He hasn't really played in Fantasy under the new offload-friendly scoring after being injured early last year
Has an offload friendly game, and as sole captain of the Storm he'll surely play 80* minutes (well he won't be playing small minutes in any case)
I think there's a good case to be made that he can go close to or above 50 average. Priced at 45 is that enough to justify a spot in your team?

Adam Elliot $606k
He's under an injury clud at the moment, which is a concern.
If fit he is likely the Knight's starting lock, and with Klemmer and Barnett gone there is a role there up for grabs.
Priced at 42, he averages 49 at lock, and 53 if he plays at least 50 minutes. I think he warrants serious consideration if he's fit to start the year


Stefano Utoikamanu $396k
Had a disappointing 2022 after a big 2021, driopping from a 43 average to 27. Partly due to injur and the Tgers sucking.
Tigers have recruited big in the off-season, so its hard to see what his role/minutes will be.
If he starts then there is surely value there, but with Klemmer/Ofahengaue/Twal around plus Bateman/Papali'i its not guaranteed how he'll be used
Certainly one to look out for on TLT. Not sure there is much else in that price range if he isn't an option (other than Leniu of course)

Emre Guler $367k
Perhaps the other option is Stefano isn't a goer. Player departures mean he may get a starting spot at the Raiders.
40 minutes at prop could push his proced 25 average close to 40. Not the most exciting thing in the world, but could certainly plug a hole in your team if you need it


Ray Stone $257k
Patented 60 minute bench forward role. Maybe not, but if you want a cheap bench middle and you don't want Stone options are Davvy Moale, or hope Murdoch-Masila keeps his starting edge from the Charity Shield
With Dragons on the round 1 bye, BMM would be a risk to take.
Or maybe grab Franklin Pele, who the fuck cares. There will probably be several cheap bench props named in round 1. They'll probably mostly be shit.

After writing up < $300k backs, here is the next tier up. Apologies if I left out the player you are interested in. Its only because they are my super-secret POD who is going to average 40 and I want them to myself.

Sean Russell $319k
Hattrick in 34 minutes  last year, which backed up a 39 (with 2 tries) in his only other start. Personally I am not inteersted because of a) his likely scores without a try, and b) not sure he has a spot secure in the Eels backline

Junior Tupou $319k CTR
May take Maumolo's wing spot. Averages 29 in 4 games in the NRL, but people got excited by a 58 in the trial against the Raiders. Maumaolo's injury is "indefinite" and Staines is around as well, so who knows how long he'll be around for. Maybe you can do better with the $250k guys, but he is an option

Te Maire Martin $313k HLF/WFB
Long term average of low 30s in the halves, but hasn't played NRL there since 2019. Priced under 20 he's a good option if he can get back up there


Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, $372k WFB
Averaged 28 last year which is about where he is priced, but averaged 40 the 2 years prior. So everyone is hoping he gets back to those scores. 40 points is fine for a WFB, especially one you can buy for sub $400k, if he can get there

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow $372k CTR/WFB
He's a roller coaster. Has scored 35 in 8 minutes, and scored 6 point in 80. Fullback average is 31 and priced at 26. I think you can make money on him - he'll go on a run of scores at some point. Just depends how long it takes before he does it and if he loses too much money first. Maybe Bennett can get the best out of him at the Dolphins

Lachlan Miller $426k WFB
Starting to get into expensive territory now, so you want clear points and value here. In his 4 NRL FN starts he averages 49 (2 tries in 4 games) so if that is a guide his 29 price point is a steal.
He averages 9 TBs a game in those games, which is actually a step up from the 8 TBS a game he averaged in 80 minute fullback starts in NSW Cup. Knights not as good a team as Cronulla. Will that impact his scoring?

Izaac Thompson $319k
Been in many teams all pre-season. 32 and 49 in his previous 2 NRL games, both with a try. Averaged  44 in NSW Cup with 20 tries in 16 games. Priced at 22 he just needs to main a somewhat average try scoring rate and points could come. Also needs to maintain his spot when Milne comes back from injury

I've had a look at some of the fantasy edge options that interest me

J'maine Hopgood $453k
Probably as close to a must have as there is at the moment. He's going to start at lock for the Eels for at least 3 weeks, and potentially longer
He's a fantasy beast. Just put him in your team and then work out who else you'll have.


Egan Butcher $561k
With Angus Crichton and Tupouniua out for a while, a spot is available at the Roosters.
Mostly he plays as a middle, so although he theoretically is mis-attributed as an EDG in the system that might be where he ends up playing
Egan has a great fantasy motor, so if he gets the start the main question is how much will his output decrease if he has to play in the edge.
Maintaining his priced 39 average seems very doable, its just how far above it can he go.


Zac Hosking $479k
Luke Garner $478k
There's a vacant edge spot at the panthers and someone has to take it
Garner is priced at 33, last year averaged 44 at edge, and for a worse team
Hosking has better fantasy credentials from his limited first grade starts, so if he could secure the spot it would be better for fantasy coaches.
Garner seems to be ahead in all media reports though.

Eliesa Katoa $448k
Had a great rookie year in 2020, but a bit uninspiring the last 2 years. Only everaged 40 minutes last year, mostly off the bench
As a 40+ minute starter he averaged 45. If he maintains a starting spot 40+ is a very reasonable base to expect

Trent Loiero $389k
Played mostly as a bench middle last year. His only edge start was 24 in 80 minutes
He did get scores of 77 (1 try), 28 and 51 in 2021. Only priced at 27 so the value is obvious
I guess the concern for Loiero/Katoa is if they can both keep th ejob long enough term to make money
At least one of them will, possibly both.


Jackson Ford $340k
Priced at 23. Normally a middle, he started on the edge for both the Warriors trials with decent stats (and 40+ fantasy points)
The Warriors forward pack has a lot of Hybrids (tm) that cam play edge or middle.
Not sure how secure his spot is with guys liek Curran, Sironen, Barnett around. But he's pretty good value if he stays on the edge


Thomas Gilbert $567k
Seems to have the starting lock spot down at the Dophins, but he's a bit too expensive and not all that exciting fantasy wise to be interesting.
Its a new team so its a little hard to predict what he'll give, but priced at 39, I think there are chesper options that have better value

Teig Wilton $536k
Priced at 37, he averaged 49 in 2nd row starts last year. Bunch of tries, but as long as he can beat out Wade Graham to the starting spot he could go well
Really needs to keep the tries flowing for fantasy value though

Preston and Doorey (and maybe even Suia Wong) are all base price options that may get a run. So keeping my eye on them for team lists too.

Not Perham specifically, but lets assume everyone is running with a lot of cheap WFB/CTR. These are the options sub $300k that I find most interesting

Paul Alamoti CTR $230k
Perhaps the best of the cheap backs. Base price, reasonable job security and has a game that looks good for Fantasy. I assume everyone will have him, either starting or in NPR

Tommy Talau CTR/WFB $250k
Unsure job security, but looks to be at least starting the year at centre. Has a history of solid mid30s average mixed in with some single digit shockers. DPP sees him as a reasonably popular NPR

Alofiana Khan-Pereira WFB $230k
Scores a lot of tries, but that seems to be it. Will find it harder scoring them for the Titans than for Burleigh. Averaged 30 in QCUP despite scoring 25 tries in 20 games. Not great fantasy prospects, but he's cheap and looks to be starting.

Jesse Mclean CTR/WFB $230k
Rumours he'll replace Taylan May ahead of Turuva. Panthers winger so tries are expected. But he's young and has barely played against adults before, so who knows what to expect, if he does get a start. Could be another Taylan May, or could be a Charlie Staines.

Hayze Perham WFB $298k
Mostly played centre or winger in the past, but gets first crack at Bulldogs fullback. Not inspiring in the trials, so people will be concerned he may get dropped if he has a few bad performances., Played a bit of fullback in NSW Cup where his stats weren't the best. Priced at 21, so doesn't have to be awesome to provide value, which is a good thing for potential owners

Tyrell Sloan WFB $250k
Dragons fullback, bye in round 1 s he'd be your round 1 loop. Fullback average is 33 , well above his priced average of 17. Bit of rocks and diamonds with a few low 80 minute scores. Has a high try scoring rate (7 in 9 games at fullback) which you would want to continue. I'd rate him higher than Perham - cheaper and with better job security

Will Warbrick $230k WFB
Looking at starting on the wing for the Storm. They have a few other options so not a guaranteed spot, but fantasy wise he's the one we want to see on TLT. Averaged 38 fantasy points in QCUp last year, surely a 30+ is possible in the NRL
Just need to hope he can secure a spot

Harley Smith-Shields $250k CTR
Priced at 17 he averages 36 in first grade on the wing (7 games) Injuries mean he's a real chance to start the season. Not really in first choice 17 though so job security is a concern.


There's also a few other cheapish guys in the next price bracket that may also be worthwhile (eg Te Maire Martin, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Lachlan Miller, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow)

Just putting stuff here to avoid clogging main thread

Current team

Boyd
Hopegood Haas, Carrigan
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
Alamoti HSS
Tedesco Miller Wabrick

Cheese, Egan, Uto Trindall
Carty Perham Katoa Talau

Tedesco is interchangeable with Latrell. Landed on Teddy and lockout last night, but considering latrell for byes. If I also have Cheese + Egan Teddy becomes an issue in round 4, so may trade him to Trbo/Latrell before his bye if I keep him

Perham has also swapped around with Te Maire Martin and a few other WFBS (Sloan, CNK, HTF in the frame)

Current dilemma is this is it worth getting Bird in as a premium CTR. Was on watch list, but if I can get him now on free trades, and also loop ion Carty, that's a bonus

If I want to keep Teddy, the most realistic option is probably Egan Butcher + Perham to Bird + Sutton/Garner
Puts a bit of pressure on Talau as WFB cover, which I'd rather avoid

So best way to get Bird in is likely to downgrade Teddy, and there are a few options - basically bringing in Tom Trbojevic or Kalyn Ponga

Tedesco + Talau to Trbojevic + Bird is simple
Give some $325k as my WFB cover (Perham, TMM, Sloan or even hang onto Talau)
Getting a look at Trbojevic this week and going for any potential move after his bye was original plan, but willing to consider it.

Or go for proper WFB guns and try Teddy+Egan+Talau to Trbo/Ponga/Bird
Trading 2 guns for 3 isn't bad.


In the end, losing one of Tedesco or Egan makes R4 easier, and if it also brings in Bird to stop me from going cheap CTRs then its probably worth it. The one off Carty score just an added bonus.

As Newcastle/Warriors players are in the equation, have to decide by 6pm tonight

Milchcow wrote:
Current dilemma is this is it worth getting Bird in as a premium CTR. Was on watch list, but if I can get him now on free trades, and also loop ion Carty, that's a bonus

If I want to keep Teddy, the most realistic option is probably Egan Butcher + Perham to Bird + Sutton/Garner
Puts a bit of pressure on Talau as WFB cover, which I'd rather avoid

So best way to get Bird in is likely to downgrade Teddy, and there are a few options - basically bringing in Tom Trbojevic or Kalyn Ponga

Tedesco + Talau to Trbojevic + Bird is simple
Give some $325k as my WFB cover (Perham, TMM, Sloan or even hang onto  Talau)
Getting a look at Trbojevic this week and going for any potential move after his bye was original plan, but willing to consider it.

Or go for proper WFB guns and try Teddy+Egan+Talau to Trbo/Ponga/Bird
Trading 2 guns for 3 isn't bad.


In the end, losing one of Tedesco or Egan makes R4 easier, and if it also brings in Bird to stop me from going cheap CTRs then its probably worth it. The one off Carty score just an added bonus.

As Newcastle/Warriors players are in the equation, have to decide by 6pm tonight

Teddy + Talau to Turbo and Bird along with getting Carty's score looks like a great move

Sorry was halfway through writing this a couple hours ago but got sidetracked with dad duties haha
I had the same scenario but what I did was trade down say Tedesco + Perham down to Ponga + Walsh.
Gives you a back 3 of Ponga,miller,Walsh and warbrick+HSS become your cover next week without using a trade (like the bird option)
Trindall and Carty’s 57pts scoring allows this to happen so you are banking a million but not really losing out and both new players will be POD (Others will probably be running 2 cheapies instead so might allow you to bank some early points)
Yes Walsh is an unknown like Ponga too but it lets you get through the bye period and grab trbo if he is healthy round 3 and Tedesco later too and also not worry about job security.
Also easier to find 200k than 500k to pay for fixes there

It’s all a gamble but at least they aren’t expensive and decent enough placeholders worst case

So do you have Bird + Walsh? or just Walsh?

Walsh I'll keep as a potential trade in target, but didn't want to bring him in, just in case he doesn't get named next week either. I'd like to watch him play before trading anyway.

Have enough bank that I can bring turbo in if required, but happy enough to miss a week given the R2 bye. Playing at Brookvale on a sunny day does worry me just a little though

The other good thing about Ponga is I can upgrade Talau to CNK or Hammer if I want

Probably too late for CNK given he's about to lock out, but despite the high variance in scores, HTF might go OK

Talau + $181k bank gives me good flexibility for next week though

CNK looks like he could be a good insurance policy next week.
Looks like you have it sorted, good luck

CNK was locked out by the time I looked, could have got him if I rushed things, but didn't want to panic trade. He does look good though.

Ponga doesn't look terrible, but after being on 11 points after 6 minutes he's really stunk it up fantasy wise.

How did the cow pull up in the end, do we have a platform to build the season off?

How did the team end up mate?

I'll write it up later tonight

One of the downsides of taking time off work last week to do Fantasy is that I have a bit to catch up on at the moment. Haven't spent more than 5 minutes thinking about R2 yet

Final team

Cheese
Hopgood Haas Carrigan
EKatoa Loiero
Cleary Doueihi
Alamoti HSS
Ponga Miller Warbrick

Boyd, Egan, Bird, Trindall
Carty, Uto, Talau, IKatoa

$181k in the bank

Scored 815 for a rank of 12548.
Not terrible, still in the pack so easy enough to move up if I made the right trades.
Almost traded Talau to CNK on Friday but dithered too much and missed lockout. had briefly considered HTF as well but thought I'd just keep the cash in hand to maximise R2 trade options

Like a few people, I did have some concerns abut Cheese coming into lockout, but in the end thought the risk was worth running with him.
Almost went Josh Hodgson, but in the end decided he wasn't going to crack mid 40s very often and it wasn't quite worth it. Had similar views on Welch and Sutton who I almost ran with as well. In the end I decided they were slightly underpriced, but wanted just a little more and thought I'd have better luck with the guys I did run with. Won't be a massive surprise to see them kick on, but you can't win every decision you make.

I was very close to running with Tino or Fifita. In the end went with the Broncos pair due to the bye schedule. after Rd 1 happy enough with decision, although that could easily change next week.

Other guys I really wanted were Cook/Grant and Latrell but in the end just couldn't find the cash for them without making team changes I didn't want to make.


Haven't really thought about trades in detail yet, but initial plan is to just jump on the cows I missed
Hammer, CNK in the bank and CheeKam/Ford in the forwards are the ones I have the most initial interest in. Little bit of Ilias too.

Guys like Tohu Harris will probably have to pass me by. Happy enough with Carrigan/Haas and don't want to sideways trade to them
just wasn't quite worth him.

Uto got the minutes which was good, but no scores behind it which was bad. Tigers looked a little disjointed in attack, so hopefully as the new signings gel that improves over the next few weeks.

Turbo didn't look 100% injury wise, so will give him a week or 2 after bye before committing to a trade in. Hopefully someone like Trindall/Carty has made enough money to be an easy upgrade to someone like him in a few weeks.

Happy enough with Ponga. He was just getting into the game when he got HIA'd. Thik he'll build into some good scores if he can keep away from injury as he and Hastings build a combo

Have narrowed down my trades this week to

Katoa out for one of Hammer/CNK/Izaac Thompson
Then Talau can become BMM or maybe Chee-Kam (also slight consideration to Shaq Mitchell)

Want to give everyone else a second look, so no trading for guns yet.
Izaac Thompson is the sort of player who I end up missing out in every year (bit like Taylan May last year), so thought I'd jump on him now whilst I can. Was a bit worried about how he'd score with no tries, but against Sharks he showed he could go well.
CNK/HTF just decent round 1 scores, and a few signs they can score with a bit of consistency.

Jackson Ford the slightly more expensive guy I am interested in, but don't think its worth sideways trading from Uto (or anyone else who would allow it cap wise)

Milchcow wrote:
Have narrowed down my trades this week to

Katoa out for one of Hammer/CNK/Izaac Thompson
Then Talau can become BMM or maybe Chee-Kam (also slight consideration to Shaq Mitchell)

Want to give everyone else a second look, so no trading for guns yet.
Izaac Thompson is the sort of player who I end up missing out in every year (bit like Taylan May last year), so thought I'd jump on him now whilst I can. Was a bit worried about how he'd score with no tries, but against Sharks he showed he could go well.
CNK/HTF just decent round 1 scores, and a few signs they can score with a bit of consistency.

Jackson Ford the slightly more expensive guy I am interested in, but don't think its worth sideways trading from Uto (or anyone else who would allow it cap wise)

Exact same thoughts on Thompson. Missed May/Tago to start last year and I'm getting déjà vu. Think I'm going to grab him this week also.