Milchcow 2024

first post

hookers that I have looked at

Harry Grant $788k BE 57
His minutes wre emanaged last year around origin, and lead up to finals.
But start of the year he was getting 59 points in 79 minutes.
Think there's a good chance he at least holds value an dprovides a solid VC option
R4 bye may or may no tbe tough to deal with, depending on your other Storm players
Probably needs to be traded out around origin, but IMO most reliable hooker scores to start the year if yo ucan afford him


Damien Cook $773 BE 56
Had a down year last year after multiple good seaons in a row (although still averaged 56)
One-off or the new normal?
Minutes were good, but just dropped a little bit of stats across the board.
Don't think he'll lose money, but for just a little bit more cash I'd rather punt on Grant


Reece Robson $660k BE 48
Last 4 season averages - 49, 47, 55, 48.
Was 2023 an outlier, or the normal that he will revert back to this year?
I think getting Robson is just hoping for another hot streak that may never come


Apisai Koroisau $608k BE 44
Finished the season on fire, with goalkicking and big minutes (and some time at halfback)
Most of the Tigers attack runs through him, so whatever points they can score, he is likely to be involved
Think he needs both big minutes AND goalkicking to be value, and with Tigers first up bye its too much money to risk
But will keep an eye on earl yin the season


Brandon Smith $540 BE 39
Plagues by injury, especially st the start of last year
But even when fit at the end of the year he only averaged 44, which is around his career average at hooker
He definitely cvan hit the high scores, but don't kno wif he can do it consistently enough for me.
Also a wait and see, to see how Connor Watson is used this year now he's fit and how the Roosters bench makeup is


Jacob Liddle $536k BE 39
Played 20 games last year, amazing durability from a guy plagued bye injury in the past
Averaged 42.8 as starting hooker, in 58 minutes. If Dragons avoid a bench utility there is good case for value
If Muhleisen (or other) makes the team I struggle to see value for a player that is not exactly cheap.


Joey Lussick $459k BE 33
He played 4 games at the end of last year as starting hooker
2 of them, no Hands for scores of 54 and 37.
Other 2, 1 he split time with Hands, 51 minutes 16 points
Other 1 Moses got HIA'd and Hands played 40 minutes so Lussick got 80 and 36 points.
Not really a lot of sample size so I don't want to read much into those scores
But back in 2021 he averaged 49 points in 70 minutes over 7 games as starting hooker.
No Hands and he is excellent value. Hands on the bench, and its a bit trickier.
The risk comes if Hands is out of the team R1 but comes in soon after and you have a dud pick


Danny Levi $286k BE 21
Averaged 34.5 in 48 minutes (from 2 games) last year before  getting injured
Has consistently been a mid30s scorer if given reasonable game time, which is great for his price.
If he starts, definite value. Main concern is job security.
Woolford or Starling will be in the team, and at any point they could both overtake him.

Halves


Nathan Cleary $1mil BE 73
Best player, set and forget captain.
Not enough has changed sicne last year to make me not want to start the season with captain Cleary


Nicho Hynes $1mil BE 73
Trindall takes away a couple of points compared to Moylan, and when you are spending this much money that can be crucial
Cleary just seems a little bit safer option. No doubt he's going to put up some big scores and you'll want him eventually though
Hopefully his price drops enough to make it not too much of a struggle


Mitchell Moses $792k BE 57
2023 was Moses's highest averaging season. So unless you think he jumps again, I don't think there's long term value.
Parra have a nice draw to start the season, with Penrith in round 2 the toughest test early.
I think the plan would be to hope Parra start on fire, and Moses can run up a big score or 2, and then swap him to Hynes after the Sharks bye.
If Hynes drops a bit and Moses gets a big score, its potentially an even money trade at that point.
Parra do have a good bye schedule, so holding him through byes could also work (assuming he doesn't get picked for NSW again)


Jamal Fogarty $637k BE 46
With no Wighton, there is expectation Fogarty can improve his score as he's now the main man
He already kicks a lot, but Strange doesn't seem much of a kicker at all, so possibly a few extra points there
He had 2 points a game from goal kicking last year - that should bump with Croker no longer around.
He's a 50 averaging player priced at 46. Enough value to put him in your team?


Drew Hutchison $400k BE 29
A long time ago he had a 45 average as 5/8th. That involved a bunch of kicking though, and playing for a good team
Will he kick much next to Burton? Also is his job secure, or will Sexton get a run?
I think a lot of the Hutchison hype stems form him scoring 102 against the Dolphins last year (at the Fanatics meetup no less)
Need him to replicate his 2021 Roosters form at the dogs. Don't see the huge value others see.
But he's cheap so he's in consideration


Kyle Flanagan $359k BE 25
Won't do a lot of kicking next to Ben Hunt
Has said his main job is to get the ball to his wide men. So hopefully they score tries and break the line off his passes, so he can get some points.
Priced cheap, so opportunity to make cash is there. Averaged 33 last year in halves last year.
Some value, but would be better if his price started with a 2

Edge

J'maine Hopgood $837k BE 61
Priced at 61, he had a handful of lowe minute bench games last year. Assuming he starts every week average bumps up a few points.
I have gheard Brad Arthur say enough things in pre-seaosn to know you can't take him literally. So I don't believe him if he talks about someone playing 80 minutes
If you get Hopgood its more as bye friendly gun who won't lose value, rather than for cash.
You wouldn't be planning on trading him out anyway, so just a question of whether he's better than somone like Haas/Murray for a VC option


Mitchell Barnett $639k BE 46
Averaged 50 points last year as starting prop, so there's a little bit of value there
Not super tempted here, but I did spent the time to have a look at him so just putting this down as a note


Jai Arrow $557k BE 41
Named on edge this week. Only started there twice last year for an average of 56
Played a lot there in 2022 for an average of 47. If he can keep that spot and not get moved around, there is value
Are Souths going to go back to Chee-Kam, Host etc on the edge? (Tallis Duncan maybe?)


Morgan Smithies $520k BE 38
Canberra love themselves a tacklebot forward. Lets have ourselves a new Bateman please.
Should get DPP as expected to be named as lock. Gets a few week before Horse comes back from suspension
That may change things to his disadvantage, but there is a chance Horse plays prop and Smithies keeps starting lock role.
Cheap enough to take a gamble on. Just based on a few recent posts on the forum looks like there are multiple people sleeping on him


Heilum Luki $498k BE 36
Departure of Leilua means he should be a starter.
He's one of those edge players that doesn't actually play 80 often. He'd often take a spell in the 2nd half to give Finefeuiaki a run
Definitely some value, averages 42 if he plays 50+ minutes. But if you restrict your sample to 60+ minutes then his average is 55
So won't lose cash, question is whether he makes a little bit of money or makes a lot of money.


Siua Wong $444k BE 32
Averages 40 in his 5 starts, from 62 minutes. He and Sitili both have a bit of risk of getting rotated (both within a game and week to week)
Not as confident about long term selections, as think butcher comes in at some point


Sitili Tupounuia $421k BE 31
Averaged 46 in the 2nd row in 2022. Only 2 games last year, neither of which he lasted 80.
Certainly there is a risk of rotation or low minutes, especially with Butcher on the bench, and Angus a chance of making the team at any point


Brendan Piakura $399k BE 29
Gets Capewells spot with an average of 41 in that position. And his lowest score as starter still hits his BE
Better security than the Roosters edges, and cheaper.
Can't see him not in my team


Jaeman Salmon $289k BE 21
Started lock in the trials, but that is not something people were really predicting.
If he can keep out Josh Curran and Kurt Mann then he's gravy
But lets admit it, every week he stays as a starting first grade we'll all just be a little bit more amazed.
Just need him to make enough cash to tradeout before he eventually goes.
Or who knows, maybe he'll stay in first grade all year and be cash cow of the season


Storm edge $??? BE ??
We all want Bradley, but that is no guarantee. Even if not Bradley, whoever it is has a good chance of being value
Its one of the key things to look for come TLT1B

CTR

Will Penisini $582k BE 42
Sees a massive jump in average when Moses is next to him
Or did in 2023, in 2022 Moses only missed 2 games and Penisini scores 68 in one of them, so that stuffs the average
But not a bad draw leading up to first bye, so can hold him and get some good points whilst waiting for a good option to show up


Mosese Suli $458k BE 33
Averaged 41 in 2022. Now he gets to play next to Kyle Flanagan, who will surely unlock his potential
Did tear it up in a trial against the Tigers, but now that the season is here he has to play against NRL quality opposition


Bronson Xerri $450k BE 33
Averaged 42 when he last played (goes down to 38 when you account for TB nerf).
Now he's older and off the drugs, and hasn't played for years and is playing for a worse team, and not even secure of first grade.


Tesi Niu $424k BE 31
Looks to be starting round 1 in the centres, where he averages 36 (47 in his only 2 appearances there for the Dolphins)
Possibly a little too expensive and not quite enough value (and not actually selectable at CTR yet)


Sebastian Kris $395k BE 29
Suspended for round 1, assumed to hit the centres in round 2, where he averaged 40 in 2022.
Lots of raiders in fantasy contention so don't want to overload, but he might be a nice round 1 loop enabler with decent prospects going forward. Has DPP as well which is nice.


Justin Olam $375k BE 27
Didn't have a great year last year, but he's averaged 35 in the past
Moved to the wooden spooners might not help the attacking stats flow in, and has a bye round 1.
Still better option than some of the other dregs at the position


Ben Trbojevic $250k BE 18
He's not a great fantasy scorer, and his job security is iffy
But he's base price, and selectable at CTR. Really unless Schuster misses a few more weeks he's probably a dud pick
But Schuster more likely to miss games than Jayden Campbell is, and we need cheapies from somewhere.

WFB

Ponga $757k BE 55
For the same reason I don't think its worth chasing trbo's 2021 points, I am wary of chasing Ponga's points from the back end of last year.
Averaged 63 ater going back to fullback, but Newcastle went on an amazing winning run and Ponga was invovled in everything. Can he repeat that? His historical fullback average is below his BE, so not sure there is value here


James Tedesco $670k BE 48
Had his worst season since 2014 last year
Decline? Or ready for a bounceback. Still has quite alot of games to score over 50
But just added a few sib 20 scores into his repertoire.
Gets rested around origin as well, so he's not the clear dominant WFB he has been in the past.


Tom Trbojevic $653k BE 47
I don't think its helpful looking at his 2021 scoring when evaluating him
That was a freak run of form he is unlikely to replicate
I think he's a bit like new-Teddy but moreso. Higher highs and lower lows, so just play the averages


Roger Tuivasa-Sheck $619k BE 44
Hard to evaluate someone who hasn't played NRL since 2021, and is now in a new position
He looked good in the trial (including playing some fullback) but he's quite expensive to be taking a punt on
Quite expensive for a bt of an unknown player if you ask me.


Jacob Kiraz $556k BE 40
Training at centre where he averages 47 (6 games, only 1 try)
I don't know if even the Dogs know their best team right now, so he could get moved around, but Kiraz should stay in th e team if fit, even if he moves to the wing


Ryan Papenhuyzen $495k BE 36
Take away goalkicking and he's a 45 average fullback.
You can get him for 36 points though, so jump on it. Only question is fintess after a couple bad years with injury. With no amazing WFB options this year he's basically a must have


Jordan Rapana $487k BE 35
At this price Papenhuyzen obviously better bet if you only have one.
Over past 2 years averages 42 at fullback (just 6 games, one of them included a sin bin)
Looks set to start year at fullback, although unsure how long he'll last as there are other options
Perhaps a straight swap to Chevy Stewart when Stewart gets the gig will be a nice downgrade for cash


Jayden Campbell $459k BE 33
He's injured right now, but jus listing him, because his FB average is 45, over a decent sample size.
So as soon as he is fit, you want him in your team.


Jesse Arthars $344k BE 25
Career average of 22 on the wing.
Things are getting desperate if you are consdering him. You want him to get his highest ever score, then go close for another 2-3 weeks in a row so he can make some cash?
Just find some extra cash and buy someone good. If you're buying someone poor just get Jacob gagai and save $114k


Keano Kini $279k BE 20
His scores are pretty good for his price.
But don't do it. Jayden Campbell will be back too soon. Unless we get news by next week Campbell will be out for a while its too short term to make money


Nick Cotric $261k BE 19
Many years ago he was pretty good. Averaged 25 lats year in full games on the wing. 29 the year before
He's averaged closer to 40 in the past, but not even sure he has a secure spot in th eteam
He's cheap, but Camberra have multiple cheap otside backs who might get a run,.
How many do you want to bet on? They won't all pay off


Kaea Weekes $252k BE 18
If he gets named, looks like a good player to slot into 18-21. Probably not great scoring, but cheap, and in the halves at least as the opportunity for points.


Jacob Gagai $230k BE 17
He's cheap
What? you want more?
He averaged 34 in NSW Cup last year, but hasn't play any wing since 2021.
At this point I'd say the only one likely to beat him at that price range is Weekes, who may not even gtet named
Maybe Kamne Bradley, but wouldn't bank on that.
Shame you have to make a call on Gagai this weekend nefore seeing TLT1B, as don't think it can be justfied with the info we have.

reserved for MID

This is my team as it stands

Cheese
Murray Sitili Taumalolo
Wong Piakura
Cleary Fogarty
Penisini Trbo
Papenhuyzen Tedesco Rapana

Salmon Smithies Hutchison Luke
Mikaele Strange Levi Shoes

Don't really like it to be honest.

Nothing I like besides Papy in WFB so running without cover and hoping that can last me until Jayden Campbell comes back. Not that big on teddy but like him more then Trobojevic.
Might change if there's a surprise option next week.

Would love Grant at hooker, but cheap hooker options are better than cheap CTR/WFB options so that is where I am sacrificing the cash

If I could get Moses in over Fogarty I'd also go for that. Too many Raiders, and I actually like the idea of Moses flat-tracking his way to some good price rises, and can maybe flick to Hynes after the Sharks bye

Taumalolo is just too cheap for me not to have. He only offloaded 3 times all year in 2023. Surely he can do more than that. Even if he's past his peak, refuse to believe he's a 35 averaging player

BBowler wrote:Really love the Analysis Milch, so far just about talked me out of every player I was considering. Back to the drawing board haha.

Don't think I've ever been less enthused about my team to start a season.

Some attractive players in the forwards , but everywhere else is just underwhelming options

StormTrooper96 wrote:Casually waiting for your mids analysis

Sadly it's not coming this weekend. I'm out of Sydney getting woken early by the kids.

Just get 1 of Haas, Murray and Hopgood then go from there

I have it sems, settled on this

Cheese
Hopgood, Sitili, Taumalolo
Wong Piakura
Cleary Fogarty
Kiraz Kris
Papenhuyzen Tedesco Rapana

Salmon smithies Chan Hutchison
Burbo Strange Levi Shoes


Canberra heavy, and WFB heavy but will see how it goes.
$145k in the bank to adjust next week.

Sitili seems biggest concern injury wise, but plenty of options to pivot to
As I have mentioned in the main thread, I am not super high on Fogarty, but will probably stick him with as all the guys I do like are too expensive.

A little bit iffy on Smithies too, but given he locks out tonight looks like I might just run with him and hope for the best

R2 Trades
Taumalolo and Sitili out - Koroisau and Galvin in

Giving
Cheese
Hopgood Salmon Smithies
Wong Piakura
Cleary Fogarty
Suli Burbo
Papy Tedesco Rapana

Strange Koroisau Chan Levi
Kris Galvin Flanagan Levi

Scored 851 for the week, up to 19k in rank- not bad after starting the round around 82k

Probably would have been better going Terrell over Koroisau, but its not like Api did badly.
Similar to picking Smithies over Hosking to start the year. Smithies hasn't been bad at all, but would have been better going Hosking instead.

I think Wong to May might be on the cards this week, plus if Jayden Campbell gets named I'll look to bring him in. Maybe make a play for Hosking instead.

My trades this week were

Wong to Terrell - can't be unhappy with this at all
Flanagan to Lussick

Lussick had a low tackle count (game itself seemed fairly low in that regard, he was still 2nd top tackler for the game) So score is OK. As long as he keeps up with the minutes he'll be fine

Trading Flanagan over Levi did not turn out well
I know why I did it - historically Flanagan doesn't often break 30 without a try. Lots of scores in the 20s, whereas Levi had a better history of scoring 40+ and I thought he'd settle into that role.
Also figured I'd trade them both out and Levi had the lower BE. Double annoying as could probably have held Flanagan for a few weeks now but Levi still to be moved on soon


For round 3, scored 858 and moved into the top 2000, so happy enough with that


Team before round 4 trades as follows


Koroisau
Smithies Hopgood May
Chan Piakura
Cleary Fogarty
Kris Strange
Papenhuyzen Tedesco Rapana

Lussick Salmon Cheese Galvin
Burbo Suli Levi Hughes

Round 4 initial thoughts

Trade out targets, Cleary, Levi.
Maybe Joe Chan but he can probably get at least 1 more week.
Also have to think about how many more weeks Sam Hughes gets - he isn't this year's Preston that's for sure

Trade in targets: Dylan Brown, Blaize Talagi, Kai Pearce-Paul, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Jayden Campbell, Jaimin Jolliffe (or other Titans MID)


Would like to leave money for Smithies - Hynes after the Sharks bye.

Review of my current 21

Koroisau - happy with him, even if he was a slight disappointment as captain last week. He sticks around until origin when I reassess. on the off chance NSW go with Cook as hooker he sticks around for the long haul

Terrell May - likely hold all through origin, and then upgrade to Haas/Yeo/some gun i don't own

Brandon Smith - not sure when i'll upgrade him, but no hurry to get rid of him yet, so will likely stick around at least until his first bye

Jaeman Salmon - trying to squeeze a bit more cash out of him. Getting the black widow treatment a bit and moving to centre mid-game where his scoring dies. Might just have to hope he can last until his bye and that he's profitiable enough for a decent upgrade by then

Kai Peace Paul - maybe not a keeper, but no plans to get rid of him. maybe swap to Fifita/someone after origin, but if he keeps up scoring could well just sit on him until the end

J'maine Hopgood - hoping to be a keeper. he had a few games on the bench last year and didn't hurt him long term, so just sit on him and assume it all evens out in the end. No plans to trade out unless injured

Jamal Fogarty - surpassing expectations, just wonder how long he'll keep it up. Currently missing both Hynes and Cleary so may need to dump him to upgrade as think he'll regress a bit at some point.

Lachlan Galvin - just ride the scores until I can't. Assume will upgrade at some point but he may even turn out to be a keeper.

Seb Kris - killed it until the HIA in round 2, now its just disappointing. would like to give him a few weeks, but will likely dump before Canberra bye - maybe for Jayden Campbell if Campbell looks viable.

Ethan Strange - in my 17 perhaps more than I'd like, but doing great for the price, and hope scoring improves as he gets more experience

James Tedesco - hold for the season and hope he doesn't get too many origin rests

Ryan Papenhuyzen - ditto

Jordan Rapana - another raider that is going to go soon, just have to work out best upgrade target, and try ana maximise value on the trade timing

Morgan Smithies - good player but not really fantasy scores to match, so will upgrade him in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully to someone who can pump out 60s

Joey Lussick - biggest fail of the guys I have traded in this year. Should have checked his scoring a bit better before bringing him in. he can score big so might give him a chance or 2 but suffering regrets right now

Danny Levi - If he keeps scoring tries I'll keep him around, but more likely he'll also be gone before the Raiders bye

Blaize Talagi - Just make enough cash for a good upgrade before I need to ditch you, please Mr Blaize

Sam Hughes - lucky he's starting this week as might actually kick start some money. Just a lesson around bench props and how they often aren't as good as you'd like.

Joe Chan - will wait until he's back to see if he retains starting spot when fit, as if he goes back to starting he can stick around a bit longer

Ben Trbojevic - lasted longer in first grade than initial thoughts would be, but getting less minutes every week and he's just plodding now. Time to cash in, or hope he scores a try

Moses Suli - not really sure why I started with him. Somehow he just ended up in my team as I rejigged between Vegas and the rest of round 1. Probably just a little too excited about his trial form. And even though it was against the defensive powerhouse Tigers, just not translating into anything useful.

Trades this week

Looking at Suli out, and maybe Smithies.

Lussick, Burbo I am tempted to give another week or 2 and see if they can improve, but they are on the chopping block.

Dylan Brown and Gutherson being looked at for trade ins - grab the points on offer whilst Moses is out
Maybe Carrigan as a gun, but he may not be as good once Haas comes back and then origin hits.

Ponga might have bottomed out and as a nice run of games coming up

Still keeping an eye on Jayden Campbell, but Titans just not trustworthy enough right now

Not in a terrible position, but need to get trades right over next few weeks to make sure I don't stuff myself up and make my team weaker

683 last week,
Just 1 trade Burbo to Dylan Brown

With Rapana + Teddy out will need to trade in a WFB
Rapana out, Jayden Campbell or Chevy Stewart in is a definite trade.


2nd trade will move on Joe Chan or Blaize Talagi
Probably Chan because Blaize seems more likely to get back into the team.

For trade ins looking at Iro (but worried about job security)
Angus Crichton (assume he'll keep starting edge spot and is good value if so)
JC/Stewart to double up WFB options

Half an eye on Euan Aitken, but think I'm better off searching for value with the cheaper options

I'd like Hynes but don't think it works this week as would need to trade out a green dot to get him, so I'll keep my players actually taking the field.