Week 8 trade ins

Hey Guys,

Just so you know I went through everything and I have way more than the 20 allowable options for a poll so I'm running this purely as who do we bring in and will run a separate who do we trade out.

Gun/ Top End Players - at least that's why we are buying them
Arey
Cleary
Taukeiaho
RTS
Chrichton
Martin
Fainu
Kikau
Smith
Korisau

New Cow
Flannagan
Dearden
Lomax


Cows we know
Waddell
Allan
Fotuakia
Whitbread
Turner
Elgey
Herbert

If I have missed someone that you want this week (I've excluded Farah and Lolo for this reason) just make a case and I'll count likes on the post as votes towards that trade in.

For those voting Waddell, whats the plan moving forward. Do we have the cash to bring in the necessary guys? Im not connived we will and this Waddell move could bite. I need convincing. So whats the plan for the next 2-3 weeks?

Here’s how I could see things unfolding…..

I'd quite like to plan on bringing in 3 round 12 playing 'guns' prior to round 12 and these ideas have been floated by a number of other posters.

Tolo looks like being one - lets say we can grab him at $750k in 2 or 3 rounds time.

Then you take your pick of 2 of the other guys suggested, eg:

Martin if not this week would be a buy next week - $680k
ARey if not this week would be a buy next week - $730k
Kikau if we wanted him it should really be this week - $630k

There are others but the above will do to illustrate the point.

Then add Farah into the mix who likely bottoms in 2 more weeks - $740k

Bringing in 4 of the above and we are looking at basically $2.8m

Currently we have $250k so need to find $2.55m

The players we have currently who I suspect we will ditch:

Rava $310k done deal to sell this week by the looks!
Lawrie $540k (current) projected next 3 rounds $565k, $585k, $600k
Morgan $585k (current) projected next 3 rounds $600k, $610k, $620k
Garner $570k  (current) projected next 3 rounds $580k, $590k, $600k

Looks like we cash out Rava this week (to Lomax) netting $100k and then sell Garner, Morgan, Lawrie in that order over the next 3 weeks, that’s a further $570k + $600k + $585k = $1.755m

Total $250k + $100k + $1755k = $2.105m so you'd still need to find an additional $700k ($1100k) if we are bringing in Waddell this week .

That leaves us forced into looking at selling two of the the next tier of guys:

Perhaps CHT and Burr – you’d think we’d net $1.2 to 1.3m from those guys?

Alternatively we’d have to look at ditching one of the Origin Lads (Arrow perhaps).

Is that the direction we are going in? It all looks doable to be honest.

I’d love to see us committing to some kind of strategy leading into round 12 though. I fear we may end up continuing to trade in the flavour of the week instead of bulking up our 17 with guns.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Here’s how I could see things unfolding…..

I'd quite like to plan on bringing in 3 round 12 playing 'guns' prior to round 12 and these ideas have been floated by a number of other posters.

Tolo looks like being one - lets say we can grab him at $750k in 2 or 3 rounds time.

Then you take your pick of 2 of the other guys suggested, eg:

Martin if not this week would be a buy next week - $680k
ARey if not this week would be a buy next week - $730k
Kikau if we wanted him it should really be this week - $630k

There are others but the above will do to illustrate the point.

Then add Farah into the mix who likely bottoms in 2 more weeks - $740k

Bringing in 4 of the above and we are looking at basically $2.8m

Currently we have $250k so need to find $2.55m

The players we have currently who I suspect we will ditch:

Rava $310k done deal to sell this week by the looks!
Lawrie $540k (current) projected next 3 rounds $565k, $585k, $600k
Morgan $585k (current) projected next 3 rounds $600k, $610k, $620k
Garner $570k  (current) projected next 3 rounds $580k, $590k, $600k

Looks like we cash out Rava this week (to Lomax) netting $100k and then sell Garner, Morgan, Lawrie in that order over the next 3 weeks, that’s a further $570k + $600k + $585k = $1.755m

Total $250k + $100k + $1755k = $2.105m so you'd still need to find an additional $700k ($1100k) if we are bringing in Waddell this week .

That leaves us forced into looking at selling two of the the next tier of guys:

Perhaps CHT and Burr – you’d think we’d net $1.2 to 1.3m from those guys?

Alternatively we’d have to look at ditching one of the Origin Lads (Arrow perhaps).

Is that the direction we are going in? It all looks doable to be honest.

I’d love to see us committing to some kind of strategy leading into round 12 though. I fear we may end up continuing to trade in the flavour of the week instead of bulking up our 17 with guns.

Nice post mate. Agree, a bit of r12 strategy needs to come into play. It might be tough to weave this into a voting system though.

Yes rd12 players are important but say you bring in Arey or Kikau are they really keepers? Not in my opinion.

I say we keep following the upgrade downgrade system, there are cows still coming along and real guns still bottoming out. If we go Waddell and a gun this week, next week we can go Dearden and Gun.

Lomax is a wait and see, he still needs a big score to get kick started (we almost have 2 more looks at him and get to see if he can hold his spot). If he avgs 30 ( a score he hasnt hit once yet) from now he still only makes 85k in 3 weeks. Waddell on the other had should easily avg 35 and that makes 125k in 3 weeks and even more if holding longer.

Shanbon wrote:Yes rd12 players are important but say you bring in Arey or Kikau are they really keepers? Not in my opinion.

I say we keep following the upgrade downgrade system, there are cows still coming along and real guns still bottoming out. If we go Waddell and a gun this week, next week we can go Dearden and Gun.

Lomax is a wait and see, he still needs a big score to get kick started (we almost have 2 more looks at him and get to see if he can hold his spot). If he avgs 30 ( a score he hasnt hit once yet) from now he still only makes 85k in 3 weeks. Waddell on the other had should easily avg 35 and that makes 125k in 3 weeks and even more if holding longer.

I think Reynolds is - currently 17th best season average. Of the 16 ahead of him, 3 are out injured for significant periods of time, and 6 likely play origin, meaning you can effectively add 3 points to his average to account for the missing game (more if people get rested) - that would bump his rank by or 3 spots. So going by what we know so far, I'd argue he's a season keeper.

Kikau, I agree. I put him forward in part just to illustrate a possible plan moving forward but also I do think you could take a chance on him, potentially get a keeper for a massive discount and if he doesn't come through for you, you trade him to another gun who plays 16 prior to 16. Its a risk, but last year I felt like given the trades available, you could afford to trade 1 decent scorer into your team for the byes and then dump them for a scorer for the next bye round and still survive. Therefore while he may not be a keeper I think he is a legit candidate to trade in. I take your point on him for sure though mate!

Verbal Kint wrote:

Nice post mate. Agree, a bit of r12 strategy needs to come into play. It might be tough to weave this into a voting system though.

Thanks mate - year could be tricky to vote on but off the top of my head I proposed this in the other thread - at the very least it wouldn't hurt to try:


List the 'guns' that have been proposed over the last couple weeks: Tolo, Farah, Martin, ARey, Kikau, RTS, Cook, Smith, Cleary etc

Then ask, how many should we realistically be targeting prior to 12. and who would they be?

1 gun - easily done
2 guns - at least 2 additional trades (maybe 3) after this week out of (Lawrie, Morgan, CHT, Burr)
3 guns - at least 3 additional trades (perhaps 4) after this week out of (Lawrie, Morgan, CHT, Burr, Arrow, Murray)
4 guns - at least 4 additional trades (perhaps 5) after this week out of (Lawrie, Morgan, CHT, Burr, Arrow, Murray)
5 guns - at least 5 additional trades (probably 6) after this week out of (Lawrie, Morgan, CHT, Burr, Arrow, Murray, Xerri)

Then a vote for the actual guns themselves...

Tolo x%
Farah x%
Are x%

etc

Wouldn't hurt at least I reckon....

I agree that expecting Lomax to hit 35s is a bit ambitious, and I don't know where that expectation comes from.

I also think expecting Waddell to get consistent 35s is slightly on the optimistic side, he's relied on injuries and such to get his recent higher scores.

Ah shit, I forgot to vote this week. Sorry!

I would've voted ARey so no impact anyway.