Trade Targets - Round 6

290k ITB and we need a plan. If you have a trade outside these options then feel free to post your ideas. Sometimes the best trades aren't obvious on TLT (like Haas).

Brown/Bird out

Haas/Ponga in

Stop having to play WFB Roulette with Rava/Sivo.

Play Haas as starting prop, Fifita at 18 and loop with burns
just incase the hammy goes.

Just have to decide who to loop in 19 spot.

I really like the above idea but god it's hard to not just snap up say Twal instead and have a stacked forward pack.

Haas for me has to come in! Cash generation and shown the potential to score very well and mostly in meat and drink points! Should make a load of cash and provide some very solid scores

Ponga in at the back then for me pretty much like Game states

Only just getting a chance to look at this now for the week.

Ponga would be great, but Burns + Rava/Sivo loop well this week, so perhaps not essential if we want roll the dice (as long as we keep Brown/Bird or otherwise have an NPR we can swap them with)

Haas in is obvious move.
Ogden and Sutton worth a look, but I think they occupy that awkward middle ground of not quite a keeper and not quite a cash cow.

$8k off Burns+Bird to Cook+Haas.

I think Ponga in as WFB keeper. Then we can leave our CTR+WFB starters alone for the time being.
And start working towards Cook/any forward/half guns we want in.

I think the Twal boat is long gone. This was definitely the last chance in my eyes. reasoning is there isn't enough cash in him to be a super value next week (was borderline this week). Ponga is more proven and should have similar cash and fills a bigger need so I'm okay with it.

Our cows (Garner, Mahoney, Burr etc.) will have come ripe for picking in the next few weeks (or on next dud score really). Think we will have plenty of cash out options soon enough. The bigger struggle I think will be finding the next wave of cashies.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:I think the Twal boat is long gone. This was definitely the last chance in my eyes. reasoning is there isn't enough cash in him to be a super value next week (was borderline this week). Ponga is more proven and should have similar cash and fills a bigger need so I'm okay with it.

Our cows (Garner, Mahoney, Burr etc.) will have come ripe for picking in the next few weeks (or on next dud score really). Think we will have plenty of cash out options soon enough. The bigger struggle I think will be finding the next wave of cashies.

Twal averaging 55 will settle around $840,000 ish?

So if we want him still plenty of value vs points potential anyway?

Trades are final (for now):

In: Haas and Ponga
Out: Bird and Brown

Tempted to drop Burns instead for:

a) more cash
b) to loop halves now that our backline is so set and
c) Burns is likely out for 3-4 more weeks (going by forum news). Brown is similar but see more use in keeping him (more cash to gain, more cash freed up and better looping)

mattnz wrote:

I agree on final value, but also agree this was the last week to get Twal as a real value pick. Another big score and he is mid 700s next week. Ponga was fine to bring in next week instead of this week.

Not really because if he is going to average 55 then anything under that pricing is value

I think the thing with value is that its pretty subjective. Realistically I see Twal settling as being a high 700's/low 800's player. I think the 100k to go this week was borderline value to rush him in but for the 60-70k next week I'd definitely look more at team balance. I agree there is still value but not value worth wrecking your team over. Kinda like where Bateman is now (still a value but not worth missing out on other players for).

It's mainly that Ponga over Sivo nets us more points now with similar overall gains (not as fast) than Twal over Burr that makes the decision easier.

Ponga (55 +20 k) Sivo (25) Twal (55 +43k) Burr (40)

15 points this week + more till we find a 3rd WFB vs 20k cash this week is the trade off. I'll take the points and team balance but it is close.

mattnz wrote:

I agree on final value, but also agree this was the last week to get Twal as a real value pick. Another big score and he is mid 700s next week. Ponga was fine to bring in next week instead of this week.

100% agree with @Welshy and I'd also point out that its not just 'value' thats important here. Ponga fills a much needed gap in the WFB position for us, TWal wouldn't. Hence I personally think it makes sense to fill that gap first (sacrificing some potential value) and then target the next upgrade. Twal will still be value next week if we want to go that way.

I think we need to seriously add a few bonus points on to our scoring system for round 12 players - Sutton therefore gets a bit of a bump for me next week assuming he goes well again this week.

mattnz wrote:

What scores are you anticipating from Sutton and who does he replace in the playing side each week to increase the team scoring potential? This is the issue with mid rangers that aren't going to be scoring 50-60 each week (he looks to be a 45 average guy). You are better off getting a real cash cow that costs less and it doesn't matter if they don't play in the team until round 12. The key difference is the $200-300k that they aren't tying up that can be used for other upgrades. If the target is a 900+ score each week, the trade in targets need to be 50+ scorers, or cashies, not something in between.

In my own team my focus is entirely on bringing in the undervalued guys that should average 50-60 in the $600k range and can be likely season keepers, or at least get you through to the 2nd bye at a heavily discounted price. For me this week it was Twal and James. Means my starting pack should all be getting 50+ average and the bench is Mahoney, Garner, Lawrie, Haas which should be good for 200+ combined each week and are all increasing in value at the same time.

If I had to nail down a number I'd probably side with you at 45.

Look, I take your point, and that certainly is the balancing act you have to manage. That said, if Sutton is a 45 point guy, then as a Cow we would get $200k out of him. So that is easily enough, but only if he is part of the 17 cause as you say, you dont want that kind of money tied up on the bench. But as far as I can remember we have Carty Burr and CHT in our 17 so Sutton easily upgrades any one of those three IMO, so certainly room for him in the 17. And he will play 12 (which out of those three only Carty does). Dont forget we still also have a guy in our squad which ties up almost the same amount of money, that isn't in our 17 and isn't generating any cash. For me, Burns to Sutton is a pretty viable move next week!! I'd also remind you that you were one of the campaigners to keep Burns last week which kinda undermines your whole argument of not timing up money unless its in your 17 (but thats another issue).

The example of your own team that you give is all good except that you are a bit selective in the info you provide to support your case. E.g. its all well and good saying your bench will score this and your a group of your starters will score that, but theres a tradeoff and its your WFBs and the cash generation in your 18-21. Dont get me wrong, I kinda like your team, but you are cherry picking a bit for the sae of your argument.

Anyway, a lot can happen between now and next week, my actual point in my previous post wasn't so much to advocate for Sutton, rather to get serious about considering how we are going to look at round 12.

mattnz wrote:

Definitely agree on getting serious about round 12. That is the focus of my next few trades. Likely that Twal is the last non 1st bye player that I add ahead of round 12.

For my WFBs I am quite happy with RTS, CNK (Hughes in the team but at half as well), and looping Burns. Expect to be able to get a Ponga like score each week from the loop option, without needing to trade in Ponga to get it. Unfortunate that Burns return is delayed, but will still look at waiting it out.

In the celeb team, I think there are going to be a few must haves coming up that we should start discussing ahead of round 12, to determine what the next few rounds should look like. A poll of likely trade in targets for the next few weeks will be really useful, as I think there is a real danger that we over-trade otherwise, bringing in non essential players, that could be at the exclusion of some great bargains in later rounds, and cutting short the potential of some cows before they are due to be milked.

When we have direction of who we want and can work out when to get them in, we are then planning strategically, rather than tactically as we have been playing each week so far. A key must have target in my mind is a cut priced Taumalolo ahead of round 12, if Turbo plays 11 and 12 he is another that could be a great target to acquire at a discount in round 12.

This is the flaw with the Celeb team though. There are about 4 active people thinking about more than just 'this weeks' moves, but a tonne of people who come into vote on a week by week basis - its nearly impossible to plan more than 1 week out. I've tried and failed miserably. We can talk about it, but when it comes to the vote, there's very little thought beyond 1 week.

So, Im not sure what we do to be honest. I agree with you, its just that its gonna be very tough for this team.

I'd add to what you are saying by suggesting to won't be long before we also have to start planning how we put the war chest together to get guys like Farrah, Smith, Twal, RTS, Harris, Matterson, etc after 12 - all these guns who will play 16. A lot of these will require cash to upgrade from the lies of Mahoney, Rein, CNK, etc.