NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 15

I'm still not convinced Bird is a must have. He'll be 326k next week. If he scores 35's for the next seven weeks he'll make 170k before his price rises start to peter out (you don't want to hold him for like 12 weeks to eke out every $). Not bad. It seems equally possible he could score 30's for the next six weeks and make 110k before rises peter out which isn't worth a trade. If I can afford to trade a dud cow up to him next week, can someone convince me I should?

lubedragon wrote:Hodgson VS Friend

Friend. Back into the 50's for him. Hodgson has never been in the 50's and I don't expect that to change.

Mulvy wrote:I'm still not convinced Bird is a must have. He'll be 326k next week. If he scores 35's for the next seven weeks he'll make 170k before his price rises start to peter out (you don't want to hold him for like 12 weeks to eke out every $). Not bad. It seems equally possible he could score 30's for the next six weeks and make 110k before rises peter out which isn't worth a trade. If I can afford to trade a dud cow up to him next week, can someone convince me I should?

You never chase CTR or WFB scores who aren't laying 2RF or FB.

Fantasy rule number 1

Mulvy wrote:I'm still not convinced Bird is a must have. He'll be 326k next week. If he scores 35's for the next seven weeks he'll make 170k before his price rises start to peter out (you don't want to hold him for like 12 weeks to eke out every $). Not bad. It seems equally possible he could score 30's for the next six weeks and make 110k before rises peter out which isn't worth a trade. If I can afford to trade a dud cow up to him next week, can someone convince me I should?

Do what ya feel is right.

I won't be tearing the team up for a CTR. I'll wait for a cash cow forward with a base

Listening to Siebold after match I feel like Gillett got more minutes at the end due to closeness of game and because of Roberts getting injured. Those minutes would have been Flegler's
In an ideal scenario I see Gillett getting 60. They are really short in the middle if Gillett doesn't play lock though.

Mulvy wrote:I'm still not convinced Bird is a must have. He'll be 326k next week. If he scores 35's for the next seven weeks he'll make 170k before his price rises start to peter out (you don't want to hold him for like 12 weeks to eke out every $). Not bad. It seems equally possible he could score 30's for the next six weeks and make 110k before rises peter out which isn't worth a trade. If I can afford to trade a dud cow up to him next week, can someone convince me I should?

Of course.

I keep plenty of money in the bank for moments when you got to get rid of a dud. You don't have to trust Bird as a scoring player but might as well get his price rises.

Johnny B Goode wrote:

Of course.  

I keep plenty of money in the bank for moments when you got to get rid of a dud. You don't have to trust Bird as a scoring player but might as well get his price rises.

But that's my point, can you convince me he get's enough price rises to make a trade worthwhile?

is mahoney worth the risk of picking up on the chance he has reduced minutes because of smith

Mulvy wrote:

But that's my point, can you convince me he get's enough price rises to make a trade worthwhile?

It depends if one of your current cows fail. If one does he'll definitely be better than them if not it's a gut call based on what you think his scoring will be.

lukeaye wrote:

You never chase CTR or WFB scores who aren't laying 2RF or FB.

Fantasy rule number 1

This. I've read the last few pages and everyone needs to calm the fuck down.

lubedragon wrote:is mahoney worth the risk of picking up on the chance he has reduced minutes because of smith

nobody knows.

He will just end up being a tackle count. Don't think he offers a lot in attack.

Everyone expects him to play 60 mins or so, and you would have to think eels will do a lot of defense.

Could be good for $100k price rise, then you will most likely need to trade him, he's just an awkward price.

I see Mahoney as McCullough 2.0 - so for 2/3 the price I say he is worth it, given people captained the latter.

For all the Bird talk, depending on Roberts situation, I would prefer to go Staggs. Likely to be $25K cheaper and will make the same cash if not more.

White Lightning wrote:First game of the season, players a bit rusty & suffering from fatigue. I'm happy with my 2 players. Munster scored 50 but 5 missed tackles so -10 pts. Ofahengaue scored 42 but -8 in negatives. Once these players get their match fitness up I expect the negatives to drop.
It seems Bird is my Hiku of 2019. Like last year I didn't start with Hiku & never traded him in & regretted it. I'll be making Bird my trade in target next week. Someone said last night Bird will be about 330k next week so I might have to rejig my team a bit to raise the cash for a straight trade.

You sure you will want Bird when/if Burns/Nikora/CNK/Kahu/Bmoz score 45 and will make the same amount of cash?

Last pick for second row Lane, Twal or taylor not really sure who to go with

Gillett is the only one who sparked a bit of interest for me last night.
Already have Bird as a starting centre.

Left Hughes out last minute, I'm OK with that so far. What does he score without the try?

He may average out to 45+ over the season but I don't think he'll make cash in any hurry in the first few rounds now without getting over the line often.

If I was going to bring in Gillett - Glasby is probably the only one I could trade out for him. If Glasby scores 45+ then he's going to make enough coin and not worth the trade. Will have to watch the Knights game closely. Then anything could happen to the rest of my team to force or force me to consider trades. It's only one game but we do love to start putting scenarios together and starting on the guesswork!

Unfortunately the Warrrios vs Dogs is going to be the first game I'll actually see this weekend due to having a life apparently. Gutted.

Of the guys in my team Radley is the only one I'm not confident in due to price.

But i suppose ya gotta have a backup hooker. Are 40s a reasonable expectation?

Hey, I have question about the possible rabibtoahs mins.

Is Sam Burgess likely to play the 80? Surely Murray and Sutton wont and they will want at least one 2RF to play the 80?

Hopefully if that happens, he will go back to 55+ points

Mulvy wrote:

But that's my point, can you convince me he get's enough price rises to make a trade worthwhile?

I think its worth it mate if you have a dud cow week 1 and you have the cash to upgrade without downgrading elsewhere.

Hopefully my price predictor is working but heres how things could pan out:

Bird scores 25 for 5 weeks, he makes another $60k (realistic floor IMO)
30 for 5 weeks = $100k  (perhaps what we might expect from here)
35 for 5 weeks = $135k (possible)
30s + one more 50 = ~$140k (possible)
35s + one more 50 = ~$170k (realistic upside)

My scenarios I hope just demonstrate that the realistic floor is pretty low but realistic upside is substantial. But perhaps most importantly, what you'd expect to get, $100k, is pretty solid and I think most would take that given the little risk involved (if you concur with my predictions).

I do agree with others here saying a little calm is in order - as per my earlier post, we are talking about 1 game here. That said, I do think this is a realistic option for people who have the cash in the bank AND have a failed week 1 cow. The whole point of the cows is to make money and Bird will make some money now. I'd rather guarantee myself a slice of that pie at the risk of getting stuck with this year's Lachlan Croker.