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    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5

    Random
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    Post by Random on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:25 pm

    Post up more teams in the Assistant Coach area. Give me some work for tonight.

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f11-assistant-coach

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    Post by Mighty Fishes on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:26 pm

    @Random wrote:I want more information re Katoa. Is it just the fact that he will have Johnson inside him?

    Also what are the Sharks backline?


    I swear you do some of these on purpose
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    Post by Boozecluez on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:28 pm

    @Random wrote:I want more information re Katoa. Is it just the fact that he will have Johnson inside him?


    Haha well that all depends on how well they get to know each other really

    Edited: Looks like I am not the only one who noticed that, I am sure he didn't do it on porpoise

    Next thing thing you know the fish puns will come out again in 2019.........
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    Post by Mighty Fishes on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:33 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:

    Haha well that all depends on how well they get to know each other really

    Edited: Looks like I am not the only one who noticed that, I am sure he didn't do it on porpoise

    Next thing thing you know the fish puns will come out again in 2019.........


    Nah I think we're too sofishticated for that
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    Post by Random on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:37 pm

    @Mighty Fishes wrote:
    @Random wrote:I want more information re Katoa. Is it just the fact that he will have Johnson inside him?

    Also what are the Sharks backline?


    I swear you do some of these on purpose

    I don't get it? Why would having Johnson inside him be a positive wouldn't it be more disruptive?
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    Post by Bagpipe on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:53 pm

    My head hurts reading all this POD theory. I'm clearly too pissed to make any other assumptions other than pick the best team in your opinion.

    Now, let's say Kurt Mann gets his 60ish minute role at 9. Would you consider playing him in one of your starting halves positions?

    The reason I say that is to get reassurance as I can kick Cleary and get Edwards and Mann
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:56 pm

    @mattnz wrote:As a simplified example, my back 3 I have spent $1,368k on.

    They all have <5% ownership and are all priced at points that I think even if they perform great, others may not see the value in them and overlook adding them into their teams in time to get them at a decent price point.

    Instead I could have spent similar money to get
    Ponga (36%) $795k
    Lomax (44%) $230k (he is actually in my team as NPR, but just as an example)
    Meaney (10%) $362k
    Total 1,387k

    If Ponga, Lomax and Meaney, as high ownership players start killing it early in the season, then everyone is likely to get them into their teams asap to avoid missing out, so that is a disadvantage compared to my far less popular PODs, that are less likely to be brought in.

    Lets assume that:
    1. who ever the best back 3 that could have been chosen within budget would score 200 points more than other combinations that could have been chosen; and
    2. there is equal chance that my back 3 could be the best back 3 to have started the season with as these 3 highly owned players (or any other combination for the same money).

    If there are 100k players in the comp, the number likely to have the popular 3 player combination is 100,000 x 0.36 x 0.44 x 0.10 = 1,496 players all with that same perfect combination from the start. Lots of competition for you even though you had a great start to the season with the perfect back 3 pick.

    The odds on another player having my back 3 are 100,000 x 0.02 x 0.03 x 0.04 = 2 players that all start with the same perfect combination from the start (and I am one of those 2!), if my PODs paid off as the best possible combination by 200 points.

    That is the power of having PODs. All other things being equal I am 200 points ahead of everyone except 1 other player that selected the same PODs vs being equally benefitted as 1,496 players, despite picking the perfect combination for the back 3 with the popular players. It is such a huge difference between the 2 scenarios.

    One you are sharing the lottery 2 ways, the other you are sharing the lottery 1,496 ways.

    At the end of the season 200 points is a huge difference to get you 1st place rather than 2nd.... vs no difference from 1500 other players that are still in the race.

    I play fantasy, not lottery. I get where you are coming from but it seems we have different objectives. I want to win the whole thing, but I also want to win my leagues, especially against other fantatics. I want to finish as high as I can every year for bragging rights, not bow out in three weeks. I also want to enjoy the football, the banter etc all year long. I get game theory and all that, you didn't invent it. Anyway that's all, good luck with the season ahead.
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:05 pm

    @Bagpipe wrote:My head hurts reading all this POD theory. I'm clearly too pissed to make any other assumptions other than pick the best team in your opinion.

    Now, let's say Kurt Mann gets his 60ish minute role at 9. Would you consider playing him in one of your starting halves positions?

    The reason I say that is to get reassurance as I can kick Cleary and get Edwards and Mann

    If Kurt starts at 9 he'd be hard to pass up as a starter in your 17. I mean who wouldn't have that on the bench. And by bench I mean in your 17 so what does it matter. I really like Cleary though. Just don't know if I can fit it in and there are a lot of potential cheapies.
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    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:12 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:Just posting this for the sake of discussion. This is a list of the top money makers in the first 6 rounds last year.

    I guess an interesting thing to note is that 25 of those 40 were over 300k. But its probably meaningless, as the majority of players getting a game are over 300k to start the year. A cheap cash cow is pretty easy to identify, the mid range cow is tougher to spot (albeit seemingly plenty on offer this year)

    top money makers:
    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5 - Page 4 Early_10

    Just crunching some numbers...

    The top 25 money makers cow of 2018 consisted of:

    4 x HOK
    2 x FRF
    10 x 2RF Shocked
    3 x HLF
    2 x CTR
    4 x WFB

    Looks like there was plenty of value in the 2nd row.
    It's one of those positions where money is made, think of guys like Capewell, Twal, Burr, etc
    If they can get a starting role the chances are high for them to do well
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    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:24 pm

    @Chewie wrote:

    Just crunching some numbers...

    The top 25 money makers  cow  of 2018 consisted of:

    4 x HOK
    2 x FRF
    10 x 2RF  Shocked
    3 x HLF
    2 x CTR
    4 x WFB

    Looks like there was plenty of value in the 2nd row.
    It's one of those positions where money is made, think of guys like Capewell, Twal, Burr, etc
    If they can get a starting role the chances are high for them to do well

    Love that analysis. Typically players getting bigger roles / minutes at 2RF.
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:29 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Love that analysis. Typically players getting bigger roles / minutes at 2RF.

    This is something we can agree on. 2nd rowers getting bigger roles/minutes make the best cash cows.
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    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:33 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Love that analysis. Typically players getting bigger roles / minutes at 2RF.

    @Mulvy wrote:

    This is something we can agree on. 2nd rowers getting bigger roles/minutes make the best cash cows.

    I kinda knew this was the case, but seeing it in the numbers only confirms it. 10 out of 25 is a huge percentage.

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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:36 pm

    @Chewie wrote:



    I kinda knew this was the case, but seeing it in the numbers only confirms it. 10 out of 25 is a huge percentage.


    Like tenty per cent?
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    Post by mattnz on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:39 pm

    Trying to think how many traps there were in 2RF last year too. Rochow started feeling like a trap when I held onto him too long to get the first bye round out of him, and bought the Manly plodder that got a start mid season, plus Ligi Sao. A few learnings there hopefully to avoid similar errors this season. I recall getting lucky round 1, accidentally left Kikau playing not realizing he has been benched, and he killed it.
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    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:41 pm

    Yeah Gosiewski comes to mind pale
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    Post by Boozecluez on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:43 pm

    To be fair a lot of injuries to some of those 2rf cashies too, can’t predict that


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:44 pm

    @Chewie wrote:Yeah Gosiewski comes to mind pale

    I was thinking there was more than one! He wasn't that bad, but like all my cows last year got injured. Sorensen too. There's someone else I'm forgetting.
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    Post by Boozecluez on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:46 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    I was thinking there was more than one! He wasn't that bad, but like all my cows last year got injured. Sorensen too. There's someone else I'm forgetting.

    Jack Williams was another too
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    Post by Chewie on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:47 pm

    @Mulvy wrote:

    I was thinking there was more than one! He wasn't that bad, but like all my cows last year got injured. Sorensen too. There's someone else I'm forgetting.
    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5 - Page 4 Z
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    Post by Mulvy on Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:50 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    2019 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 5 - Page 4 Z

    Haha, you're probably just taking the piss but yeah I had Maubs Embarassed But that's not who I'm thinking of, Maubs was a bad pick, I'm thinking of a potential cow that a bunch of people got in, only to be injured fairly soon after.

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