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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:36 am

    B/L wrote:I have won draft cash leagues by picking wingers from free agents with easy match ups.

    It has merits in certain positions in certain circumstances but certainly not guaranteed.

    Definitely a draft strategy, you can change every week. You can't trade a winger in fantasy every week.
    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:39 am

    Taking Turbo out of the conversation, picking players based on their draw/opposition that week is bogus. Unless of course it’s a back playing the Tigers/Bulldogs (even then, there’s marginal utility). Not picking a quality player because they have a ‘tough’ draw is silly; often the quality players play even better against a quality foe.

    Edit: Queue Milchy with a glorious spreadsheet proving the contrary.


    Last edited by Alfie on Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:46 am; edited 1 time in total
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:40 am

    Alfie wrote:

    Are people still picking players based on draws? How does that work out for you?

    I was taking the piss.

    However, as a rule it's still not a good idea to pick outside backs who have a run of games against teams that are better than them. Not relevant if Manly are good this year, but still worth bearing in mind. And that "rule" works ok for me, fantasy-wise.
    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:43 am

    B/L wrote:I have won draft cash leagues by picking wingers from free agents with easy match ups.

    It has merits in certain positions in certain circumstances but certainly not guaranteed.

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2340-2024-nrl-fantasy-fanatics-draft-leagues

    SPOILER:
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:46 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    I was taking the piss.

    However, as a rule it's still not a good idea to pick outside backs who have a run of games against teams that are better than them. Not relevant if Manly are good this year, but still worth bearing in mind. And that "rule" works ok for me, fantasy-wise.

    I agree. It's just who the good teams are to start the year is subjective, no one really knows. I started overpriced Teddy last year because of his opening draw. B/L picked him as draft pick #4 for (I think) largely the same reason. We as a group tend to get that wrong, and it's a marginal strategy anyway over longer terms. I'm trying to get that out of my fantasy game.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 21, 2024 2:11 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Turbo is priced almost $400k under his peak. Definitely upside potential if playing anywhere close to his uber-gun best that we saw in his Dally M season when he averaged 80 - priced at 47.

    Was just showing that kind of form before getting injured last season (last 2 scores were 105 and 79). By all accounts was in that kind of form when playing in the trial earlier this season that wasn't televised, when Manly were basically at full strength.

    This is really misleading. and Cherry picking at its very best

    Turbo has a single season when he morphed into the greatest fantasy player ever. This was in 2021

    He's had 2 injury plagued follow up seasons

    2022 avg 38. 7 games played

    2023 avg 48. 11 games played

    His legacy average, playing fullback in minutes over 70. which includes his once in a lifetime 80 season average is....51

    You can't pick a 2 game sample and say ahhh he was heading back to 2021 form. Pick him thinking he can get up around the 50 mark by all means but thinking he's going to go anywhere the 2021 season isn't happening


    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 21, 2024 2:57 am

    Anyway, never mind Turbo, the original Turbo (Jurbo) as an 80-minute prop? Not sure they'll go that way as they have Aloiai to come back as well, but seeing as some are talking about Nathan Brown playing lock and Jurbo prop, he's still never going to get substituted. Priced at 46, could push into the low/mid 50s just in base (and it would all be in base) without this passing the ball before the line nonsense.
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    Post by Guest Wed Feb 21, 2024 3:34 am

    Looking at possible upside in a lot of players this season that are underpriced.

    I've generally always gone the gun/rookie route and find myself burning trades through the first half of the season with too much investment in 4 or 5 players who start the season at peak price. It's a gamble but figure this year I might structure my team to have upside right across it without relying on a few big scorers and the rest risky short-termers.

    In saying that I'll probably retract my scrotum at the last minute and bring in Hynes/Haas/Murray for fear of missing out!

    JMK
    Brown Hughes Tatola
    Curran Lane
    Cleary Fogarty
    Penisini Hammer
    Paps JAC Campbell/Kini
    Cheese Willison Duncan Luki
    Blore Weekes Burbo Armstrong/Levi

    If Campbell starts R1 will run with him and Armstrong, if Kini starts R1 will run with him and Levi.

    Risking it with no adequate halves cover, if Hands gets the Eels hooker role could drop a middle for him.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 21, 2024 3:57 am

    Raiders update. It's all pretty confusing, but my main takeaway is that Rapana is favourite to be fullback in R1, unless someone absolutely kills it in a trial against the full -strength Cowboys. Sucks for fantasy. Number 6 still a straight shoot-out. Cotric maybe on the outer or maybe not. No clarity on hooker.

    https://archive.ph/2024.02.20-164351/https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8528064/canberra-raiders-pre-season-trial-team-named-to-face-cowboys/
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:34 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    Surely Kenny is pure middle now. Eh, unless he starts edge and moves to middle. Lemu and Aitken can't move to middle. If that's how it pans out, seems like Kenny could start edge, move to middle after 20, and Aitken/Null play out the game on edge. But 60 minutes wouldn't interest me. Just a take. Other thoughts?

    Wasn't Wayne's preference to play 2x 80 min Edges last season?
    From what I have read, Aitken gets the spot because he's been 'training the house down' and Wayne has been really appreciative of his effort (sounds like a Wayne thing to do). It's also helped that Null Null was injured through a portion of the pre season, which probably allowed Aitken to separate himself somewhat.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Aitken named to start the season, in an 80 min role. It's just whether it lasts. A few Phin's losses on the trot and I could see Null Null brought back in - In saying that, once Kaufusi cops a suspension, both guys will have a clear path to minutes).

    For whats its worth (not much being a trial), both Kenny and Null Null are named outside the 17 in the Reserves for this weeks match (but so are Kodi, Stone and Wallace).
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:37 am

    GreenSchist wrote:

    Wasn't Wayne's preference to play 2x 80 min Edges last season?
    From what I have read, Aitken gets the spot because he's been 'training the house down' and Wayne has been really appreciative of his effort (sounds like a Wayne thing to do). It's also helped that Null Null was injured through a portion of the pre season, which probably allowed Aitken to separate himself somewhat.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Aitken named to start the season, in an 80 min role. It's just whether it lasts. A few Phin's losses on the trot and I could see Null Null brought back in - In saying that, once Kaufusi cops a suspension, both guys will have a clear path to minutes).

    For whats its worth (not much being a trial), both Kenny and Null Null are named outside the 17 in the Reserves for this weeks match (but so are Kodi, Stone and Wallace).

    As Milch pointed out, the 14-17 doesn't really mean anything for most of these teams with such an extended bench. However Aitken being in the run-on 13 is promising.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:02 am

    Yeah looks like Aitken ahead of Null, and I'd say Kenny is a MID now.
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:04 am

    robelgordo wrote:Yeah looks like Aitken ahead of Null, and I'd say Kenny is a MID now.

    That's how I see it but its just a question of whether it lasts (with Aitken ahead of Null).



    King Assassin
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    Post by King Assassin Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:06 am

    With Schuster out round 1. Is Flanno gonna do enough kicking to be a decent scorer in the halves?
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:07 am

    King Assassin wrote:With Schuster out round 1. Is Flanno gonna do enough kicking to be a decent scorer in the halves?

    Probably not. Better off straight swapping Schuster to Hutchison (if named)
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:23 am

    Alfie wrote:Taking Turbo out of the conversation, picking players based on their draw/opposition that week is bogus. Unless of course it’s a back playing the Tigers/Bulldogs (even then, there’s marginal utility). Not picking a quality player because they have a ‘tough’ draw is silly; often the quality players play even better against a quality foe.

    Edit: Queue Milchy with a glorious spreadsheet proving the contrary.

    If you want to summon a poster, it is done thusly


    I think we should just pick whoever is playing the Dragons. Dragons are such a rubbish team that they give away fantasy points like candy. Its like free money, baby. I'm captaining Keano Kini week 1
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:27 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Raiders update. It's all pretty confusing, but my main takeaway is that Rapana is favourite to be fullback in R1, unless someone absolutely kills it in a trial against the full -strength Cowboys. Sucks for fantasy. Number 6 still a straight shoot-out. Cotric maybe on the outer or maybe not. No clarity on hooker.

    https://archive.ph/2024.02.20-164351/https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8528064/canberra-raiders-pre-season-trial-team-named-to-face-cowboys/

    Talking of shit players that tempt you in Fantasy. Danny Levi is pretty cheap. Probably marginal value if he is playing 40 minutes a week, and ca't see both Woolford and Starling missing the team, but you never know.

    I can foresee Levi playing 80 minutes round 1, and then never again for the rest of the year, just because of Ricky doing Ricky things
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:30 am

    Welshy wrote:
    You can't pick a 2 game sample and say ahhh he was heading back to 2021 form.


    I mean, extrapolating from small sample sizes is kinda matt's trademark around here, so I think he definitely can pick players based on scores in 2 games.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:31 am

    King Assassin wrote:With Schuster out round 1. Is Flanno gonna do enough kicking to be a decent scorer in the halves?

    He had 0 kicks before Hunt went off last week
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:31 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Anyway, never mind Turbo, the original Turbo (Jurbo) as an 80-minute prop? Not sure they'll go that way as they have Aloiai to come back as well, but seeing as some are talking about Nathan Brown playing lock and Jurbo prop, he's still never going to get substituted. Priced at 46, could push into the low/mid 50s just in base (and it would all be in base) without this passing the ball before the line nonsense.

    If we're buying aging middles, I'd much rather Taumalolo for $150k less

      Current date/time is Mon Jul 15, 2024 11:41 pm