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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:59 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Talking of shit players that tempt you in Fantasy. Danny Levi is pretty cheap. Probably marginal value if he is playing 40 minutes a week, and ca't see both Woolford and Starling missing the team, but you never know.

    I can foresee Levi playing 80 minutes round 1, and then never again for the  rest of the year, just because of Ricky doing Ricky things

    So a brief run-down of how Ricky has split the Hooking duties in 2023:

    Starting Hooker = 31 pts in 50 mins
    Levi averaged ~27 pts in 40 mins (minus injury game; 3 game sample)
    Starling averaged 28 pts in 55 mins (1 game sample)
    Woolford averaged 32 pts in 51 mins (19 game sample)


    Interchange Hooker = 27 pts in 36.5 mins
    Starling averaged 28 pts in 37 mins (21 game sample)
    Woolford averaged 14 pts in 25 mins (1 game sample)


    in 2023, the starting Hooker typically got 50 mins.
    At a PPM of 0.58, Levi projects to get approx 29  pts if named as starter.
    That's 8 points of value

    Its not pretty, and I wouldn't be relying on him in my 17 but you could do a lot worse for $286k.


    FYI, if Starling starts at Hooker and with a PPM of 0.77, he would likely get around 38 pts (4 pts of value)

    It's also worth noting that Levi broke his jaw last year, had a disappointing return to the the starting role in Round 12, before being dropped down to Reserves for the remainder of the season. Probably fair to say that was largely due to the injury and being off the pace compared to the other two hookers. No injury this season hopefully means Ricky gives him a longer leash.

    Update:

    2022 Starting Hooker = 31 pts in 46.5 mins (slightly elevated mins due to injuries and Starling taking on a 70 min role)
    2022 Interchange Hooker = ~34 pts in 46 mins
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:07 am

    robelgordo wrote:Yeah looks like Aitken ahead of Null, and I'd say Kenny is a MID now.
    Connelly Lemuelu had his first field session early January as he continues to rehab from a PCL/MCL injury suffered in post season internationals. He avoided surgery but any multi-ligament injury (instability in multiple directions) presents a challenging rehab (NRL Physio paraphrased)

    I would expect them to ease him back in minutes wise with the high risk of re-injury. Aitken may be OK for the the early rounds, but has risky job security
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:11 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Talking of shit players that tempt you in Fantasy. Danny Levi is pretty cheap. Probably marginal value if he is playing 40 minutes a week, and ca't see both Woolford and Starling missing the team, but you never know.

    I can foresee Levi playing 80 minutes round 1, and then never again for the  rest of the year, just because of Ricky doing Ricky things
    I thought Levi was one of the best Hookers in the game?
    At least that's what he said himself in 2020
    King Assassin
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    Post by King Assassin Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:18 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    He had 0 kicks before Hunt went off last week

    wasnt the plan for flanno to take some of the kicking and organising duties off ben to open up his running game?
    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:21 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Raiders update. It's all pretty confusing, but my main takeaway is that Rapana is favourite to be fullback in R1, unless someone absolutely kills it in a trial against the full -strength Cowboys. Sucks for fantasy. Number 6 still a straight shoot-out. Cotric maybe on the outer or maybe not. No clarity on hooker.

    https://archive.ph/2024.02.20-164351/https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8528064/canberra-raiders-pre-season-trial-team-named-to-face-cowboys/

    Rapana averages 49 (priced at 35) at fullback so it isn’t all bad.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:33 am

    King Assassin wrote:

    wasnt the plan for flanno to take some of the kicking and organising duties off ben to open up his running game?

    That would be a good plan.

    Apparently the hostage is doing it all still.
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:39 am

    Hey guys - I've heard of keeper leagues but never joined one.
    I was thinking of making one for Wicky (my full time gig - sports analytics startup) for the core users in our community.

    Any suggestions on which platform to use? My aim here is to have the core goal of a fantasy game where you hold on to some players over many seasons etc. But make it as simple to play and manage long term.
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:41 am

    Didnt realise flanagan was so cheap, but still dont think i could pick a guy that doesnt run, doesnt kick, has zero x factor, and isnt the dominant half.

    35s seems a long way off for him.
    WT Winfield
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    Post by WT Winfield Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:44 am

    robelgordo wrote:

    That would be a good plan.

    Apparently the hostage is doing it all still.

    Might've been the plan for BHunt to do everything for the ~35 mins, then Flanno to do whatever he does once Hunt's off. Wouldn't read much into it being a trial. 350k starting half with some decent scoring history and pretty good job security on TLT is good enough for me. I've seen equally bad players in worse positions hit 500k.. not sure Flanno will make the 150k, but I'll be happy with 100. Chances are I'll have the other cheaper prospects, Hutch partnering Cleary and can't afford anyone better at 18/19.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:37 am

    Dttragic2016 wrote:Hey guys - I've heard of keeper leagues but never joined one.
    I was thinking of making one for Wicky (my full time gig - sports analytics startup) for the core users in our community.

    Any suggestions on which platform to use? My aim here is to have the core goal of a fantasy game where you hold on to some players over many seasons etc. But make it as simple to play and manage long term.

    I don't know if there are any platforms that handle the keeper aspect for you, I think that might have to be done manually. Just work out how many players you get to keep year to year and let everyone get their own team at the start of the year before going on to the regular draft.
    Just pick the platform that has the scoring/UI that you like and go from there.


    I'm in a NearlySport keeper league, we get to keep our entire squads year to year, salary cap dependant. So basically the top teams have to cut players each year as their squad values rise, and the bottom teams get to pick up the released players, plus get the early picks in the pre-season draft
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:39 am


    @Blackwinx
    @Donkeyyyyyy
    @standard-issue
    @SamBarrier

    Please check your PMs and join the fantasy fanatics leagues

    Enchanted Glossy Flamingo
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    Post by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:53 am

    Chewie wrote:
    I thought Levi was one of the best Hookers in the game?
    At least that's what he said himself in 2020

    No thats a commonly misattributed quote. He actually said he was one of the hookers in the game, which is pretty accurate
    SaveTheCheerleader
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    Post by SaveTheCheerleader Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:10 am

    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:21 am

    I’m a bit worried about Fogarty now just feel he might start slow will he GK too early rounds with the hammy. I might need to find a way to Moses
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:34 am

    I wonder if Bennett would give Flegler the minutes he needs to average 45+. Priced 37. He's the alpha of that pack, but would need to comfortably go 50+ mins. Lots of good props there too unfortunately, but if they run a utility + aitken/lemu/etc on the bench... there's a chance. Though its fairly typical of Bennett to spread the mins on props.


    Last edited by my tv broke on Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:35 am; edited 1 time in total
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:35 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    I don't know if there are any platforms that handle the keeper aspect for you, I think that might have to be done manually. Just work out how many players you get to keep year to year and let everyone get their own team at the start of the year before going on to the regular draft.
    Just pick the platform that has the scoring/UI that you like and go from there.


    I'm in a NearlySport keeper league, we get to keep our entire squads year to year, salary cap dependant. So basically the top teams have to cut players each year as their squad values rise, and the bottom teams get to pick up the released players, plus get the early picks in the pre-season draft

    This is gold. Thanks heaps!
    Our community went from 300 to 3,000 in a few months last year. Honestly most of it is RL punting but I'm keen to grow it for fantasy and sc (nrl and bbl).
    If you use discord and you're keen to check out our stuff - all the links are here https://linktr.ee/wickyai
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:49 am

    Yeah can do it manually with Nearly Sport and NRLCeo.

    Nearly is a bit more user friendly for customising keeper leagues IMO, but I do prefer the NRLCeo scoring a bit more.
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:58 am

    @milchcow @robelgordo
    Wait just to clarify - based off what Milch said, it's fine to use nrl fantasy or sc draft and just manually decide "you get to keep x players for the next season" and then draft from that point on the next season right?

    Would def prefer to use one of these 2 platforms just to keep guys who aren't fantasy obsessed but know one of the 2 main platforms engaged for multiple years!
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:03 am

    Dttragic2016 wrote:@milchcow @robelgordo
    Wait just to clarify - based off what Milch said, it's fine to use nrl fantasy or sc draft and just manually decide "you get to keep x players for the next season" and then draft from that point on the next season right?

    Would def prefer to use one of these 2 platforms just to keep guys who aren't fantasy obsessed but know one of the 2 main platforms engaged for multiple years!

    Should be easy enough to do on Fantasy.
    The first X rounds of your draft each year will just be an honour system of people recruiting the players from last years team they want to retain, and then once you've hit that point draft as normal.
    I guess only trickiness would be if people were retaining different numbers of player, might need to work out how you're going to manage that.
    King Assassin
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    Post by King Assassin Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:14 am

    Not sure if its mentioned yet, but Api looks to have secured the goal kicking duties at the tigers. Thats an extra 2-4 points a game if he converts them...

      Current date/time is Sun Apr 21, 2024 7:19 pm