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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:07 pm

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    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:08 pm

    Finally!
    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:10 pm

    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears My-disappointment
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:15 pm



    L-Jimmy, an off-season shitpost for you to ponder

    We have a $10million salary cap to fill our team.
    But we can't spend this totally as we wish, we must fill every position, and spend a minimum of $230k on each position doing so.

    So is it more useful, statistically to view Hynes as taking up $1million of a $10million cap. (10%)

    Or should we view it that we have $4,830k of spending locked in to our team, with $5170k available on upgrades
    Hynes is then $770k of our discretionary spending - or 14% of our available funds


    Answers on a spreadsheet
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:16 pm

    He's beached as bro  Very Happy  

    via GIPHY

    THEGAME
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    Post by THEGAME Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:16 pm

    Hi can I get thumbs up if running with
    Grant, Haas, Cleary, Hynes

    Thumbs down if not.


    Last edited by THEGAME on Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
    THEGAME
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    Post by THEGAME Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:17 pm

    And Thumbs up if Cleary, Hynes Combo

    Thumbs down if not

    Cheers
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:21 pm

    THEGAME wrote:Hi can I get thumbs up if running with
    Grant, Haas, Cleary, Hynes

    Thumbs down if not.

    Only have Cleary from this crew
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:22 pm

    If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:26 pm

    mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

    I assume Matterson comes into the 17 unless injured, and that Hopgood plays similar role to last year - he already averaged over 65 minutes and don't see a huge increase on that.

    Think Murray/Haas might present better value.
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:33 pm

    mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

    He and Cleary have been the only two locks in my team since opening.
    BA may have screwed us with the Hookers but I still believe he wants to target 80 mins for Hopgood and only sub him if he’s looking tired.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:37 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    L-Jimmy, an off-season shitpost for you to ponder

    We have a $10million salary cap to fill our team.
    But we can't spend this totally as we wish, we must fill every position, and spend a minimum of $230k on each position doing so.

    So is it more useful, statistically to view Hynes as taking up $1million of a $10million cap. (10%)

    Or should we view it that we have $4,830k of spending locked in to our team, with $5170k available on upgrades
    Hynes is then $770k of our discretionary spending - or 14% of our available funds


    Answers on a spreadsheet

    At first glance you are entirely correct that we should view 230k as the minimum and therefore Heinz would represent 14% of the cap. It would only index from 0 and 0 was actually an option.

    But I suspect we're even more constrained than that, As there are precious few 230k players available who will actually score.

    This implies we need to have a multidimensional solution analysis framework, in capturing not only available dollars but desired total points (which is in itself a function of available dollars dynamically adjusted through the season, which means time is another dimension).

    The intuitive stretch from this, and note I would need to prove it (in ideally not a spreadsheet) with some variety of simulation, is that there are two arms of effort to focus on in terms of minimising spend or identically increasing earnings, and in points earning.

    This intuition is born of the fact we are under three constraints, available slots, available currency, and minimum expenditure.

    The direct result of that intuition is I suspect cows and guns he's going to come out of any modelling as an optimal pathway. But I do hate the forward guessing work before I've done it, and so will not rule out mid-ranger heavy or all cow then pivot or any of the other blended strategies folks come up with.

    I suspect actually building a prescriptive model up front would be a pain in the arse because of that multidimensionality and time constraints + origin etc, so I will suggest whoever takes up this work does it simply is a numerical simulation solution - which again rules out a spreadsheet.

    Forgive typos and inconsistencies - I'm currently sitting beneath the fan, watching my kids swimming nursing in some dusty and weird tropical paradise. Really should do more actual work.....
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:37 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Only have Cleary from this crew

    I only have beanz
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:39 pm

    Wonder if we will find out if Suaalii is GKing
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:42 pm

    If Seyfarth can maintain his .78ppm (.89 last year) from the interchange, then 45-50 mins is enough. Might be worth a punt.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:42 pm

    mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

    Matt, you are insane. Both Tuilagi and Ofahengaue are both capable of playing big minutes. I am happy for you to pick Hopgood, but he ain't playing 80. Hands is just as likely to spend time at LOCK as any of the other bench players. There is no way Hands is subbing Brown or Moses
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:43 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    I assume Matterson comes into the 17 unless injured, and that Hopgood plays similar role to last year - he already averaged over 65 minutes and don't see a huge increase on that.

    Think Murray/Haas might present better value.

    And dare i say it... Tohu Harris
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:57 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    Matt, you are insane. Both Tuilagi and Ofahengaue are both capable of playing big minutes. I am happy for you to pick Hopgood, but he ain't playing 80. Hands is just as likely to spend time at LOCK as any of the other bench players. There is no way Hands is subbing Brown or Moses

    Just to add a note to this, pretty sure Hands played in the halves all through age grades so not as wild as you might think NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears 1f605
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:02 pm

    So the only sample on Salmon at lock is 1 game for 80 mins in NSW cup. Scored 42 all in base

    38 last week in trial in however many mins he played (in approx 40 odd mins based off Talking League notes)


    Last edited by Camo123 on Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by Guest Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:10 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:

    Just to add a note to this, pretty sure Hands played in the halves all through age grades so not as wild as you might think  NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears 1f605

    Dual position Hands never a bad thing

      Current date/time is Sun Apr 21, 2024 6:51 pm