Picking Haas as a single decision isn't going to screw you up.
I agree very much with this, which is where the Haas/No Haas started off (from the suggestion that Fantasy Amateurs were foolish for saying Haas doesn't present value...). I haven't heard the Podcast? but assume they were suggesting there are other options...
Someone also suggested that not starting with Haas could cause you to slip behind the pack and not catch up.
I don't really see that as a likely outcome either...
As a simple example;
Haas 2023: Priced at 56. A 10-point upside was a 66 average (highly possible), a 10-point downside was a 46 average (extremely unlikely)
Clear upside here.
Haas 2024: Priced at 64. A 10-point upside was is a 74 average (highly unlikely), a 10-point downside is a 54 average (somewhat unlikely, but '22 and '21 seasons produced 56-59 season averages albeit some mitigating factors)
Unlikely to have value upside, but low risk cumulative points upside.
There is also a history of Haas starting strong over the opening 6 rounds, but that also seems fairly irrelevant unless you plan to only hold him until round 6 (whereas I assume most would hold through to his first bye in Round 13 and any early season pricing gain probably regresses back to a normal seasonal average).
So maybe there is better value for an elite player somewhere (Murray etc), but that comes with greater risk/uncertainty, and any potential monetary benefit may be offset by that alternative elite player having a bye where Haas does not.
Starting with Haas seems a pretty low-risk, positive-benefit decision, but pivoting elsewhere shouldn't be season-defining in either direction.
If you opt for an alternative "underpriced" elite gun and have good fortune, it could give you a small ($50-100k? benefit with the trade-off being potentially less net overall points).
Of course the other aspect is in the unlikely event that your low ownership alternative elite gun got an early HIA you suffer where most don't, whereas if that happened to Haas it's mitigated by high ownership - I guess this is the game theory component.