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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 3 - Half the height we want

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:27 am

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    Last edited by Milchcow on Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:42 am; edited 1 time in total
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:30 am

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    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:38 am


    Towards the end of the last thread, people were talking about game theory

    Technically, game theory is making your decisions based on your predictions of what your competitors will do. Picking someone because you think they are 10 points underpriced isn't game theory, its exactly what everyone else is trying to do.

    If they don't pick your player its because they don't share your projections on that player's scoring potential, or they think he comes with some other risk (eg getting injured/dropped/shifted to another position)

    Game Theory would be picking PODs because of their low ownership, or avoiding highly owned players and hoping they fail so you can get a leg up on your competitors for a week or 2.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:46 am


    On Haas/No Haas

    Almost certainly there will be a possible team composition that will score big points without needing Haas. With almost equal certainty, nobody on here will start with that team.

    In some ways its sort of irrelevant. Its said every year, but you aren't going to win or lose the comp in round 1. Any starting team by anyone on this site could win the comp if they make the right trades.*
    Who you bring in and out of your team is far more important than who you actually start with. Of course starting with the right players will help a lot, much easier in round 2 if you have 2 fires to fight rather than 5.

    With that in mind, my main aim in team composition is to maintain flexibility. If any of my starting team get injured, or need immediate dropping, i want to be able to correct that as seamlessly as possible. ie, not rely on needing to replace my $250k starting CTR with a budget of $260k when it turns out he's crap.


    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:56 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    On Haas/No Haas

    Almost certainly there will be a possible team composition that will score big points without needing Haas. With almost equal certainty, nobody on here will start with that team.

    In some ways its sort of irrelevant. Its said every year, but you aren't going to win or lose the comp in round 1. Any starting team by anyone on this site could win the comp if they make the right trades.*
    Who you bring in and out of your team is far more important than who you actually start with. Of course starting with the right players will help a lot, much easier in round 2 if you have 2 fires to fight rather than 5.

    With that in mind, my main aim in team composition is to maintain flexibility. If any of my starting team get injured, or need immediate dropping, i want to be able to correct that as seamlessly as possible. ie, not rely on needing to replace my $250k starting CTR with a budget of $260k when it turns out he's crap.



    Team flexibility is likely to be more important this season, especially with the split 1st round team lists.

    Not knowing the teams that will be named the following TLT can really screw up your team if players you were planning on getting aren't named to start, especially if they are filling cheap holes in your team, which can't be easily filled otherwise.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:00 am

    Optimality = Achieving the best possible outcome for the lowest possible cost, regardless of the actions of competitors

    Game theory = The best possible strategy may depend on what your opponents are doing, and that should form part of your decision making

    Under those terms, in a game with thousands of competitors, game theory only really comes into it towards the end of the season and if you're near the top of the ladder. To get to that position, you need to nail the optimality first.

    Unlike Milch, I'd say picking a very highly owned, likely high-scoring player with minimal "value" (eg Haas) *is* game theory, as you could be doing it as insurance against losses to the "crowd" rather than to achieve optimal value. And it's the one but of game theory I'll probably adopt in my starting team.
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:13 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Team flexibility is likely to be more important this season, especially with the split 1st round team lists.

    Not knowing the teams that will be named the following TLT can really screw up your team if players you were planning on getting aren't named to start, especially if they are filling cheap holes in your team, which can't be easily filled otherwise.

    i think 99/100, if not more, people here are not that bad at this game to screw up their team because they picked haas as one of their top two positions.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:17 am

    This is all great but I’m disappointed nobody tried a player name/pun for second post

    I couldn’t think of one but had Greg THIRD lined up for after
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:17 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Unlike Milch, I'd say picking a very highly owned, likely high-scoring player with minimal "value" (eg Haas) *is* game theory, as you could be doing it as insurance against losses to the "crowd" rather than to achieve optimal value. And it's the one but of game theory I'll probably adopt in my starting team.

    If you are picking him based on ownership, then yes. But in the last thread that topic of ownership wasn't brought up at all. It was purely a points vs value discussion.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:20 am

    robelgordo wrote:This is all great but I’m disappointed nobody tried a player name/pun for second post

    I couldn’t think of one but had Greg THIRD lined up for after

    If you like, I could base something on W Seccombe

    Played 4 games for Glebe in 1927. A player of such importance that my Encyclopedia of Rugby League Players doesn't even tell you what the 'W' stood for
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:20 am

    Wait, Mark TWOkey

    I was so focussed on second, just need the 2

    Brett FOURman

    David FIVEita

    Toby SIXton, and so on…
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:21 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    If you like, I could base something on W Seccombe

    Played 4 games for Glebe in 1927. A player of such importance that my Encyclopedia of Rugby League Players doesn't even tell you what the 'W' stood for

    I think he kept wicket for Queensland 70 years later. Looked good for his age
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:24 am

    Pick Haas for some. Don’t pick Haas for others. Miniature NRL foam footballs for all. And always twirling, twirling, twirling for tackle busts
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:26 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    i think 99/100, if not more, people here are not that bad at this game to screw up their team because they picked haas as one of their top two positions.

    Picking Haas as a single decision isn't going to screw you up.

    Relying on having multiple <$250k players, especially in certain positions in TLT 1B can screw you up if they don't eventuate.

    You probably can't select too many cows in TLT 1A, but you could definitely select too many guns in it, relying on a guns and cows strategy.
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:31 am

    Saw some talk recently about Trent Loiero moving to lock, presumably freeing up Blore (or another cheapie) for an edge

    Denan Kemp's Bloke in a bar podcast talks about it in their season preview if you want a source that isn't just some dude on Facebook.
    Their season preview is 7 hours long, but you can just skip straight to the Storm preview if you don't have time for the whole thing.


    Last edited by Milchcow on Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:00 am; edited 1 time in total
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:36 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Picking Haas as a single decision isn't going to screw you up.

    Relying on having multiple <$250k players, especially in certain positions in TLT 1B can screw you up if they don't eventuate.

    You probably can't select too many cows in TLT 1A, but you could definitely select too many guns in it, relying on a guns and cows strategy.

    The good thing about guns is you pretty much know what they're going to score. The bad thing about cows is you don't.

    You can definitely pick too many cows if they're not actually cows.

    As for how many TLT1 guns... 700k+ players are Haas, Carrigan, Latrell, Murray, Cook, DCE, as well as Ted and Turbo who could count as gun WFBs. Doubt many/any will have more than one of those, two at the outside. "Picking too many" not likely to be a problem that restricts TLT2 selections. Baker, Arthurs and Burbo (for example) all misfiring would be more of a problem if you've gone for them.
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:37 am

    All this optimal talk maybe I’ll just make my team off Yafss recommendation of an optimal team

    After you fix the players not starting and some occasional outrageous predictions it actually ends up being pretty similar to my team study


    Last edited by Camo123 on Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:39 am

    robelgordo wrote:

    I think he kept wicket for Queensland 70 years later. Looked good for his age

    Hes now coaching the Brisbane Heat at the ripe old age of 98
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:41 am

    Camo123 wrote:All this optimal talk maybe I’ll just make my team off Yafss recommendation of an optimal team

    After you fix the players not starting and some occasional outrageous predictions it actually ends up being pretty similar to my team Shocked

    I've also found it gets close to my team when I bump my players' predicted scores up a few digits 😉
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    Post by easytiger Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:41 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    Saw some talk recently about Trent Loiero moving to the edge, presumably freeing up Blore (or another cheapie) for an edge

    Denan Kemp's Bloke in a bar podcast talks about it in their season preview if you want a source that isn't just some dude on Facebook.
    Their season preview is 7 hours long, but you can just skip straight to the Storm preview if you don't have time for the whole thing.

    I saw somewhere talk of Josh King moving to prop and Loiero starting Lock.

    Or maybe that's what you meant? rather than Loiero moving to edge to free up Blore for edge?
    I'm sure second week trials will reveal some intention there either way

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