NRL Fantasy Fanatics



Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NRL Fantasy Fanatics

NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Aardvark
    Aardvark

    Posts : 6957
    Reputation : 7186
    Join date : 2018-03-01
    Location : Parents basement eating Cheetos

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Aardvark Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:24 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    What about funomics?


    It takes a long time to get your qualifications in that field of endeavour Very Happy
    Boozecluez
    Boozecluez

    Posts : 1660
    Reputation : 2309
    Join date : 2022-02-04
    Age : 39
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Boozecluez Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:27 pm

    Revraiser wrote:

    Self imposed is back !

    WB cheer

    So are more trades
    Revraiser
    Revraiser
    Fanatic

    Posts : 16293
    Reputation : 8888
    Join date : 2015-10-22
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Revraiser Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:43 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    So are more trades

    Lol u bastard
    Bethany_B
    Bethany_B

    Posts : 7234
    Reputation : 3145
    Join date : 2018-02-05

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Bethany_B Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:14 pm

    lukeayee wrote:

    Woweee we have some smart cookies amongst us.

    I'm not the only one who has done econometrics?

    I've done it too, though my area of expertise is more with causal inference than forecasting.
    Snatchpato
    Snatchpato

    Posts : 8935
    Reputation : 7620
    Join date : 2020-06-28
    Age : 33
    Location : Gold Coast

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Snatchpato Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:28 pm

    Matt returning is like a WWE heel coming back after years away from the ring.

    Absence truly does make the heart grow fonder.
    Snatchpato
    Snatchpato

    Posts : 8935
    Reputation : 7620
    Join date : 2020-06-28
    Age : 33
    Location : Gold Coast

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Snatchpato Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:29 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:



    I'm a fan too - nice work @ynot !

    The way to deal with @lukeayee 's (correct) criticism is to build two models. The model you have here is a model of actual outcomes.

    The model you need to complement it and add intelligence (a cute way of saying observed-minus-predicted) is a model of predicted outcomes - some folks here would've seen the xG stuff soccer uses (and is seen in FPL).

    This sounds complex, but fortunately you've already darn near everything you need to build the predicted model! Easiest option is to rely on autocorrelation (i.e. tomorrow=yesterday+today+randomness) - a variant of which is how we price players.

    A better (still easy) option is throw everything you can think of together in a LASSO or something, and take the top few predictors and back-build the model. Happy to help with R/Python code here if useful.

    A full-powered predictive model is a big chunk of work (needs player identification, weather, trends in each, injuries, player-vs-players stats, season point, distance from Origin, etc etc) because it needs separate models for each position&player. But then you'd have a betting forecasting model that'd beat Sportsbet. Again, happy to help but given the quanta of work it'd be less hands-on-code help and more advice.



    I am familiar with some of these words.
    Rabbits21
    Rabbits21
    Fanatic

    Posts : 13101
    Reputation : 5759
    Join date : 2019-07-24

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:35 pm

    Currently doing…..

    Bula to Edwards
    A. Johnston to M. King

    Leaves 9 trades and 481k spare…

    Team this week of

    Robson
    Hopgood M.King Matto
    Preston Bateman
    Hynes SJ
    Manu Penis
    Teddy Edwards Ponga

    Boyd Lemuelu Hands Brimson
    Haas Horse JDB Kris


    Have considered getting Fifita or Grant but maybe should wait a week? Fifita carrying back stiffness and bit of a hip issue might play a bit lesser mins like Grant?

    If Brimson is a late out I’d be down to 16 probs domt wanna use all bank to go Brimmo to Cleary as then not much money for moves next week. Would then have to consider JDB to Yeo to field 17 this week unless I went Boyd (do not really wanna sell him) to Fifita if Fifita does play.

    If SJ is a late out I’d trade him and get DCE or Cleary.

    Can anyone simplify this any suggestions please? I haven’t felt panicked at all in the last 6 weeks but in a bit of a head spin this week.

    Ideally I will want Fifita, Grant, Cleary and maybe one of DCE or Murray but mightn’t be possible.
    lukeayee
    lukeayee

    Posts : 1125
    Reputation : 1171
    Join date : 2021-07-15

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by lukeayee Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:37 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    What about funomics?

    Looks complicated

    https://www.funomics.com/
    RandomSil
    RandomSil
    Moderator

    Posts : 9897
    Reputation : 3200
    Join date : 2015-01-12
    Age : 31

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by RandomSil Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:47 pm

    Aww bless you lot.
    GarethEllisismyDad
    GarethEllisismyDad

    Posts : 4718
    Reputation : 2476
    Join date : 2022-02-21
    Location : England

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:55 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Can anyone simplify this any suggestions please? I haven’t felt panicked at all in the last 6 weeks but in a bit of a head spin this week.


    i think grant and fifita are the best in their positions, I want them for the run home, I am trading them in this week, there is a chance they dont have their most stellar performances this week, the alternatives i have in my squad are either on the bye, or in positioins I don't need, similiarly their alternative to trade in i dont want next week, the week after or 4 weeks down the track

    so i'm just going for it

    probably a non econometric or scientific or machine learning or Ai, or Game theory optimum answer, but its my story and I'm sticking to it

    hope that helps
    Camo123
    Camo123
    Fanatic

    Posts : 12558
    Reputation : 9142
    Join date : 2019-01-30

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Camo123 Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:05 pm

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

    i think grant and fifita are the best in their positions, I want them for the run home, I am trading them in this week, there is a chance they dont have their most stellar performances this week, the alternatives i have in my squad are either on the bye, or in positioins I don't need, similiarly their alternative to trade in i dont want next week, the week after or 4 weeks down the track

    so i'm just going for it

    probably a non econometric or scientific or machine learning or Ai, or Game theory optimum answer, but its my story and I'm sticking to it

    hope that helps

    Would be interested to see how an AI would go over a full season in predicting trades, starting team etc
    GarethEllisismyDad
    GarethEllisismyDad

    Posts : 4718
    Reputation : 2476
    Join date : 2022-02-21
    Location : England

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:08 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    Would be interested to see how an AI would go over a full season in predicting trades, starting team etc

    youre gonna bring that gimmick Ai account out of hiding!
    Camo123
    Camo123
    Fanatic

    Posts : 12558
    Reputation : 9142
    Join date : 2019-01-30

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Camo123 Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:08 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Currently doing…..

    Bula to Edwards
    A. Johnston to M. King

    Leaves 9 trades and 481k spare…

    Team this week of

    Robson
    Hopgood M.King Matto
    Preston Bateman
    Hynes SJ
    Manu Penis
    Teddy Edwards Ponga

    Boyd Lemuelu Hands Brimson
    Haas Horse JDB Kris


    Have considered getting Fifita or Grant but maybe should wait a week? Fifita carrying back stiffness and bit of a hip issue might play a bit lesser mins like Grant?

    If Brimson is a late out I’d be down to 16 probs domt wanna use all bank to go Brimmo to Cleary as then not much money for moves next week. Would then have to consider JDB to Yeo to field 17 this week unless I went Boyd (do not really wanna sell him) to Fifita if Fifita does play.

    If SJ is a late out I’d trade him and get DCE or Cleary.

    Can anyone simplify this any suggestions please? I haven’t felt panicked at all in the last 6 weeks but in a bit of a head spin this week.

    Ideally I will want Fifita, Grant, Cleary and maybe one of DCE or Murray but mightn’t be possible.

    Who were you looking at trading to Fifita? If it’s Boyd, you can pivot to Cleary/Grant anyway if we hear by 24hr cut as Boyd to Fifita would be 1 trade that you should be able to reverse if on bench
    Finch
    Finch

    Posts : 9062
    Reputation : 2586
    Join date : 2016-03-02

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Finch Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:11 pm

    Why haven't the teams been cut?

    Edit - Oh wait it's 24 hours before not 25 hours

    Rip
    L-Jimmy
    L-Jimmy

    Posts : 2885
    Reputation : 3563
    Join date : 2018-01-16
    Age : 41
    Location : Dili, East Timor.

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by L-Jimmy Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:13 pm

    Snatchpato wrote:
    I am familiar with some of these words.

    Python is both a snake and a lolly, depending on murderousness. Follow me for more important sucrose information.


    lukeayee wrote:
    I'm not the only one who has done econometrics?

    Yeppers, but for my money the line between machine learning and econometrics doesn't really exist anymore. The future is cool.

    Bethany_B wrote:

    I've done it too, though my area of expertise is more with causal inference than forecasting.

    As above - in government we were often asked 'what happens if x changes?' ... which needs a causal model projected forward.

    In consulting, no-one gave a fuck so long as it sounded complex and I could charge multi-k/day for sweet fanny adams.

    Now, in my happy little world of two (probably about to fail) startups, we're asking "so, how could this work? what would it mean if it works like x? can anyone spare a tenner, i need to eat" and "wait, so if we use maths to treat people like humans, we can guess what they'll do next?! neat! can anyone shout me lunch?"



    Anyway, go the maroons.
    Spectre
    Spectre

    Posts : 3179
    Reputation : 522
    Join date : 2015-12-14

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Spectre Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:17 pm

    Su’a out for the remainder of the season. Burns watch
    Camo123
    Camo123
    Fanatic

    Posts : 12558
    Reputation : 9142
    Join date : 2019-01-30

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Camo123 Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:19 pm

    Am also going through some Rabbit panic

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Giphy
    Shady2K
    Shady2K

    Posts : 5867
    Reputation : 3221
    Join date : 2020-03-12

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Shady2K Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:20 pm

    Any interest in Matto as a cheaper mid option? At 663k
    Camo123
    Camo123
    Fanatic

    Posts : 12558
    Reputation : 9142
    Join date : 2019-01-30

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Camo123 Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:22 pm

    Think I’m leaning towards holding Bula and going DCE in for Robson this week (Fifita or Cleary as other gun pending Fifita news, ideally Fifita for cash reasons)

    Then hoping NAS could make his way up to Latrell’s price quickly for a swap when NAS back to middle. If I sell Bula this week I’m in same hole of playing Russell for any injuries/rests (WFB would have no byes though with Edwards/Ponga/Garrick or Teddy or Marzhew)
    Batman
    Batman

    Posts : 202
    Reputation : 219
    Join date : 2023-05-08
    Location : Gotham

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 4 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Post by Batman Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:23 pm


      Current date/time is Fri Jun 14, 2024 11:12 pm