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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 31 - So many trade out options, but no trade in ones

    mickspicks
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    Post by mickspicks Mon Apr 10, 2023 11:43 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    I have NFI about Robson for Origin. But the chance is greater than zero. I don't think in round six last year many would have thought Cook ultimately gets benched for Koroisau. Who knows what Fittler is thinking. He's prone to a bit of randomness and under pressure to win I would think. And Robson is the best defensive hooker in the comp (if you ask Todd Payten). I like to hold off on those bigger bye round decisions until closer to the byes (unless the value is compelling, which is why Brailey owners are especially unlucky) so I'll be continuing to run with Cook for now.

    If Freddy is trying to replicate the QLD/AUS tactic then you'd think there would be a dual hooker combo. Cook idk why but just got shafted by all rep sides last season. Hard to not see him picked though? Api had the runs over Robson but wouldn't be surprised to see Robson picked as 18th or 19th man.

    NSW has too many cooks in the kitchen right now. The only players locked in are Teddy Cleary and Yeo. The rest are a flip of the coin.

    Fullback: Teddy
    Wingers: Sualli'i/Turbo/Graham/To'o
    Centres: Fatrell/Turbo/Graham/Scritta/Sualli'i/Wighton
    Halves: Cleary + Hynes/Luai/Burton
    Hooker: Cook/Api/Robson
    Prop: Haas/Paulo/RCG/JTurbo/Saifiti bros (likes them?)
    2RF: Koloa/Martin/Murray
    Lock: Yeo
    Bench: Take your picks from above + maybe Bird. Can't see Freddy picking Matto, Staggs, Talakai, Tupou, Radley etc...
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Apr 11, 2023 6:10 am

    Chewie wrote:
    I'm keen to pick up Robson for Grant when the Storm bye comes around

    Grant only misses 1 extra game in R16 for Origin as byes are in R13 and R19, probably a hold over Origin
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Apr 11, 2023 6:20 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Given the thread title...

    In the market for a MID 550-600k. Can see these options, none of them ideal.

    McINNIS - Finucane out for three games. Rudolf out long-term, but not sure that matters. High BE. No Round 13. Three weeks of 60-minute decent scores then back to bench?

    HORSBURGH - Playing lock now, but Ricky? Bye coming up but then does play 13, or does he get Origin?

    FOTOAIKA - Titans pretty low on middle stocks with Joliffe out for season. Clear schedule until byes but then no Round 13. Up-and-down scoring but high ceiling. Origin chance?

    TAUMALOLO - Heritage pick. Played injured last round apparently. Cowboys stink again so might need him to work hard again, can the old JT13 return? No Origin and great bye schedule.

    Anyone want to rank them?

    Do you need a R13 MID if you’re likely to have Tapine, Tohu and Ford by R13 who could be your 3 starting MIDs for R13 (+ Matterson)
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:33 am


    Tanah Boyd showing as scoring 40 in the nrl.com match centre, but only 35 in Fantasy (with no try save)

    What score do we think he'll get when lockout ends?

    Will we get another one of these
    5b. Stats Issues or System-wide Corrections post lock-out lift
    - R1: Charnze Nicol-Klokstad missed try save. No corrective action taken.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:34 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Grant only misses 1 extra game in R16 for Origin as byes are in R13 and R19, probably a hold over Origin

    He's one I may let go for that period, more because I have a feeling his minutes will be managed on the back of a shortened preseason (world cup) and a 27 round regular season.
    Maybe a few 60-70 minutes games around then?

    Can't see him playing 18 weeks straight leading into the finals
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:35 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Given the thread title...

    In the market for a MID 550-600k. Can see these options, none of them ideal.

    McINNIS - Finucane out for three games. Rudolf out long-term, but not sure that matters. High BE. No Round 13. Three weeks of 60-minute decent scores then back to bench?

    HORSBURGH - Playing lock now, but Ricky? Bye coming up but then does play 13, or does he get Origin?

    FOTOAIKA - Titans pretty low on middle stocks with Joliffe out for season. Clear schedule until byes but then no Round 13. Up-and-down scoring but high ceiling. Origin chance?

    TAUMALOLO - Heritage pick. Played injured last round apparently. Cowboys stink again so might need him to work hard again, can the old JT13 return? No Origin and great bye schedule.

    Anyone want to rank them?

    Cheese ? 450k*
    Cheap and handy DPP along with no origin.
    His role is safe with some upside if he gets more game time.

    Can he get a few 60s to balance out his low scores?
    If he could average around 45-50 could fill a role in the team and allow you to fix other spots
    Could make a good 18th man too
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:42 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    Tanah Boyd showing as scoring 40 in the nrl.com match centre, but only 35 in Fantasy (with no try save)

    What score do we think he'll get when lockout ends?

    Will we get another one of these

    I look forward to complaining when I come second by <10 points
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:46 am

    easytiger wrote:

    He's one I may let go for that period, more because I have a feeling his minutes will be managed on the back of a shortened preseason (world cup) and a 27 round regular season.
    Maybe a few 60-70 minutes games around then?

    Can't see him playing 18 weeks straight leading into the finals

    I'd like to mirror these thoughts.
    My original plan had been to hold Grant through Origin due to the good byes but the more I've looked into it, the more I think he is susceptible to be rested and managed around that period.
    Down grading Grant to Robson for Week 9, then I just need to find a backup Hooker for Rounds 15 and 19.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:54 am

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    Cheese ? 450k*
    Cheap and handy DPP along with no origin.
    His role is safe with some upside if he gets more game time.

    Can he get a few 60s to balance out his low scores?
    If he could average around 45-50 could fill a role in the team and allow you to fix other spots
    Could make a good 18th man too

    Brought Cheese in for Carty last week, which may have been a mistake but hey-ho, in the long run it might be ok.

    McInnis is the obvious choice, I suppose. Sometimes it pays not to overthink.

    Next question: Robson, or JMK for 100k less.
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:56 am

    Just looking at the draw for this week, could be a very good round for footy, all the match ups are fairly even
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:58 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Given the thread title...

    In the market for a MID 550-600k. Can see these options, none of them ideal.

    McINNIS - Finucane out for three games. Rudolf out long-term, but not sure that matters. High BE. No Round 13. Three weeks of 60-minute decent scores then back to bench?

    HORSBURGH - Playing lock now, but Ricky? Bye coming up but then does play 13, or does he get Origin?

    FOTOAIKA - Titans pretty low on middle stocks with Joliffe out for season. Clear schedule until byes but then no Round 13. Up-and-down scoring but high ceiling. Origin chance?

    TAUMALOLO - Heritage pick. Played injured last round apparently. Cowboys stink again so might need him to work hard again, can the old JT13 return? No Origin and great bye schedule.

    Anyone want to rank them?

    Ese ese gave me the win in my H2H last week  bounce  just saying will be something like 380 k this week

    No chance of Origin - higher than a point-per-minute - low ownership
    BCT05
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    Post by BCT05 Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:02 am

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    Cheese ? 450k*
    Cheap and handy DPP along with no origin.
    His role is safe with some upside if he gets more game time.

    Can he get a few 60s to balance out his low scores?
    If he could average around 45-50 could fill a role in the team and allow you to fix other spots
    Could make a good 18th man too

    As someone that needs both a hooker and mid cover, bringing Cheese back is very much on the menu given it feels like there's very limited options in both of those positions right now.

    Pretty disappointing scoring this round but the minutes have been there two rounds in a row, must be getting back to fitness now, and priced at like 35... there's gotta be value there, right?
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:15 am

    BCT05 wrote:

    As someone that needs both a hooker and mid cover, bringing Cheese back is very much on the menu given it feels like there's very limited options in both of those positions right now.

    Pretty disappointing scoring this round but the minutes have been there two rounds in a row, must be getting back to fitness now, and priced at like 35... there's gotta be value there, right?
    Haha I keep looking at him and thinking yeah surely there’s at least 10 points but then I chicken out 😂
    Khany
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    Post by Khany Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:17 am

    Brailey season ender
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:21 am

    Robinson was asked about Brandon Smith playing the full half in the presser but he mentioned putting Turpin out there when they went down to 12 men just to give them fresh legs for that period. He also went on to say 'those guys went off at 8-6 and came back at 28-8' when talking about the starting middle. Read into that if you want.

    Think the mins only increase for Smith but for him its always going to be attakcing stats that get his average to where it needs to be. Need the roosters to find form.
    ForanAgainst
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    Post by ForanAgainst Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:23 am

    Khany wrote:Brailey season ender

    That sucks for him.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:35 am

    my tv broke wrote:Robinson was asked about Brandon Smith playing the full half in the presser but he mentioned putting Turpin out there when they went down to 12 men just to give them fresh legs for that period. He also went on to say 'those guys went off at 8-6 and came back at 28-8' when talking about the starting middle. Read into that if you want.

    Think the mins only increase for Smith but for him its always going to be attacking stats that get his average to where it needs to be. Need the roosters to find form.

    I think that in Fantasy terms, Brandon Smith is a mid 30s guy that is capable of going large.

    Some people get blinded by the fact that he once went large multiple weeks in a row (including me in round 1), but I don't think that is very repeatable scoring.

    He's at that awkward price where he is too expensive to be a cashout, and will often score too low to be comfortably played in your 17.
    Until its too late for me to bring him in, then he'll go on a run of tries and big scores
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    Post by BCT05 Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:38 am

    Khany wrote:Brailey season ender

    Ah that sucks.

    Just saw these comments from O'Brien. Makes it hard to go for either Mann or Crossland

    "Having Tyson Gamble come back will allow Phoenix and Kurt to rotate through that nine spot. It'll take two of them to cover Brails in the middle," O'Brien added.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:39 am

    Milchcow wrote:then he'll go on a run of tries and big scores

    But that's why people would be buying him right? its a gamble on exactly that.

    I agree, awkward price and not sure I would want to bother grabbing him.

    Hopefully Teddy back this week. Lodge possibly too. Sitili and Angus to play nsw cup for a week. Roosters might not be far off a good run of form with players returning.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:48 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    I think that in Fantasy terms, Brandon Smith is a mid 30s guy that is capable of going large.

    Some people get blinded by the fact that he once went large multiple weeks in a row (including me in round 1), but I don't think that is very repeatable scoring.

    He's at that awkward price where he is too expensive to be a cashout, and will often score too low to be comfortably played in your 17.
    Until its too late for me to bring him in, then he'll go on a run of tries and big scores

    He might be a mid-30s guy when playing prop/lock, but if you filter his hooker stats for Storm *without* Harry Grant (so he's actually playing at hooker, not 15 minutes at hooker and another stint at lock) you get 18 games from 2020-2022 and nine of them are 60+ (12 above 58), with tries in only five of those. He scored in the 30s twice, plus a 2 where he got injured in the early minutes.

    Of course, those are stats in different years with a different team, so he could be a "mid-30s guy" at hooker now, but you'd be justified in thinking that was the exception and "going large" was the norm.

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