NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 14 - Mark Holden

Honey Badger wrote:

I dont own Katoa but I think there is potential there as he gets more confident. 21 tackles on the weekend only 3 misses, plus plays for the top team in the comp

IKatoa plays 2nd against a depleted Knights too.. good opportunity to have a dirty word with him with Cleary in the 13. Two gun trade targets in DCE and Moses will have already played though if the plan was to pivot to them.

my tv broke wrote:Ok, so I need a Jamal Fogarty ala 2020 style 250k half to appear this week.

If CNK is out, they might plug the gap with TMM at Fullback then Volkman into #6 for Warriors

Downdates are in! Bastards!

mattnz wrote:

I am an advocate of the recency bias theory, especially for a guy who was a rookie winger last season, and under a new coach who looks to have given him license to take risks.

Er... recency bias is generally regarded as something to guard against not follow?

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah there's some picks in fantasy that have no statistical backing behind them, and you just do it based on eye test. Walsh was that guy for me, I saw him in the trials absolutely tearing it up and it seemed like a matter of time before he'd pop off.

I don't think Walsh falls under this category at all.

Lol, in my ill considered concern last night, whether or not Trindall lines up again, I completely forgot I have IKatoa. Obviously not ideal, but certainly better than a red dot if it comes down to it. Nice.

Cleary has fucking downdated to 37. These are not the unicorn points I signed up for.

rhinoceroo wrote:Cleary has fucking downdated to 37. These are not the unicorn points I signed up for.

Not to mention that Failhub stole his try save so he should have updated to 46.

They also stole a TS from Walsh and two TBs from Hammer so that's 19 points total that Failhub has stolen this week.

rhinoceroo wrote:Cleary has fucking downdated to 37. These are not the unicorn points I signed up for.

Sorry, that’s because I captained him this week!

Bethany_B wrote:

Not to mention that Failhub stole his try save so he should have updated to 46.

They also stole a TS from Walsh and two TBs from Hammer so that's 19 points total that Failhub has stolen this week.

Non-Cleary owner must have written a letter.

rhinoceroo wrote:Cleary has fucking downdated to 37. These are not the unicorn points I signed up for.

His points add to 41 on MTBs site but it’s showing 37? Same stats are showing in NRL app

Positives: 19 (tackles), 6 (RM), 16 (KM), 2 (goal), 4 (FDO), 4 (TO)
Negative: -10 (MT)

= 41

Fwiw, no insider knowledge or anything, but I think Trindall and Boyd both get named this week in the run on side

rhinoceroo wrote:

Er... recency bias is generally regarded as something to guard against not follow?

You must have missed the earlier discussion.

Especially at the start of the year under a new coach, the most recent stats are more likely to be indicative of future performance than old stats.

How much money does Cleary lose? He was my most expensive player and has close to the worst average. I personally blame Hynes, as he was supposed to be in my side instead of Cleary, until his cakf injury just before Rd 1.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Non-Cleary owner must have written a letter.

Wasnt this one

Bethany_B wrote:

Not to mention that Failhub stole his try save so he should have updated to 46.

They also stole a TS from Walsh and two TBs from Hammer so that's 19 points total that Failhub has stolen this week.

Wow, I missed all the update carnage

mattnz wrote:

You must have missed the earlier discussion.

Especially at the start of the year under a new coach, the most recent stats are more likely to be indicative of future performance than old stats.

Perhaps, but he is a very expensive non goal kicking winger. He is playing the Tigers this week though.

mattnz wrote:

You must have missed the earlier discussion.

Especially at the start of the year under a new coach, the most recent stats are more likely to be indicative of future performance than old stats.

I did miss the discussion. However, I do know what recency bias is - and it's a flaw relevant to fantasy as much as it is economics or psychology, so if you're talking about something else maybe find a different term? Although, at the heart of it, I don't think you really are talking about something else.

There's stiff and rotting carcasses strewn across my team this Monday....I might wait until 4.00pm tomorrow before making any big plans. Gaps will need to be plugged