NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 5 - Assemble the base price players

I remember being part of the all the discussion and calculations of a 'price of a trade' back in the day so still laugh when told things in concrete or XYZ player isn't worth it. Maybe I have been playing this game too long or getting old but it's funny seeing it recycled.
Then somehow every year finish probably top 10 in overall team value (without blowing my own trumpet) something I am decent at ignoring this as it all balances out in the end.
The discussions with multiple people in my old trials and tribulations threads, using graphs and the data available recorded there along with multiple spreadsheets to see if it was all worth it was probably futile in the end.
Private message discussions with the godfather of fantasy stats Steve Nicholls (RIP) even discussing said thing who was a big sharer and wanted to look into this further and expand on it, but ultimately there were too many variables and a lot of luck involved to come to an exact conclusion.

Do you know what I learnt from all of this?

Wait until TLT, choose your cheapies, captain and must haves then have fun working out how to fill in the remaining 6 or 7 spots
It was fun breaking everything down, and so is not caring too for the more recent years
But the results end up the same regardless so just have fun and don't overthink things
When you have autopick teams/template teams/hooker experiment team/Half experiment team last year still going well then it's not that important who you choose to start the year
Or maybe its all just luck so disregard the above too

Hey all,first post for the year. Have only thrown together my first draft over the last couple of days,not sure what to make of it yet,I’m still trying to catch up with all the pages. Here’s my team early doors

Cheese
Carrigan Nicholls Cotter
Hopgood Katoa
Hynes Cleary
Alamoti R.Smith
Teddy To’o CNK

Kenny
Boyd
I.Katoa
Doorey
Talau
AKP
Luke
Sloan

Can't argue with any of those players @danseels1985 and looks good until TLT

@milchcow has the right idea, build a pool of potential players, see what TLT brings and then see what fits in the cap

Boozecluez wrote:I remember being part of the all the discussion and calculations of a 'price of a trade' back in the day so still laugh when told things in concrete or XYZ player isn't worth it. Maybe I have been playing this game too long or getting old but it's funny seeing it recycled.
Then somehow every year finish probably top 10 in overall team value (without blowing my own trumpet) something I am decent at ignoring this as it all balances out in the end.
The discussions with multiple people in my old trials and tribulations threads, using graphs and the data available recorded there along with multiple spreadsheets to see if it was all worth it was probably futile in the end.
Private message discussions with the godfather of fantasy stats Steve Nicholls (RIP) even discussing said thing who was a big sharer and wanted to look into this further and expand on it, but ultimately there were too many variables and a lot of luck involved to come to an exact conclusion.

Do you know what I learnt from all of this?

Wait until TLT, choose your cheapies, captain and must haves then have fun working out how to fill in the remaining 6 or 7 spots
It was fun breaking everything down, and so is not caring too for the more recent years
But the results end up the same regardless so just have fun and don't overthink things
When you have autopick teams/template teams/hooker experiment team/Half experiment team last year still going well then it's not that important who you choose to start the year
Or maybe its all just luck so disregard the above too

Hard agree!

For me to get Grant I probs would need to run a very weak back 3 and scrap E. Butcher hhhmmmmmm

my tv broke wrote:


Hard agree!

This coming from the minority here who is a #nonaccountant #nonfinancesector #nonITguy
Left school young and isn't named Doogie Howser MD
I work part time on a trade counter/full time dad but I can see a pattern or a trend so there is that with this game
Should probably apply these skills elsewhere one day so I can make more than 30k a year as winning nrl shop vouchers from league wins doesn't pay that well haha

Boozecluez wrote:

Have you looked at the average priced player for a squad of 21 is 476k?
Though if you look at the base price of the NPR in your 17-21 being 230k then this average changes to 534k
Given your breakdown do you feel you are maximising the $ per point potential of your starting lineup?
Technically more money spent in 17 is more points so have you got the balance right of points vs NPR/cow potential without overspending here?

Is this the first time you have looked at this breakdown or looking at last year how did you find it help?
Do you find making multiple team lists hypothetically helps you with your decision making or confuses the situation?
Given the variables with players being ruled out every day getting closer to team lists named, which in turn brings in more potential options (And then effects your own team balance) does this all help?

Can news of one new/promoted player to a starting lineup change your entire team?
If you could choose the 21 best players without any stats or prices attached but had 500k left over would you do it?
Is your strategy to build season ending high team value with gradual growth or hit the ground running with possibly less potential later on?
IE consistent players or more risk/reward? What breakdown would you say your current players are using this example?
What percentage of these players are forwards vs backs? Have you balanced the early byes with captaincy/team options

Hope this helps you in your upcoming decision making
Looks like you love the fine details so you will love this

All I know is when I get home from work about 8:30pm on Tuesday I’ll be on LMC pod and catch up on the others and on here too and I’ll probs be panicking at 2.30am Tues and Wes nights next week my head will be spinning! That is what I do know

And no shower 15-20mins before lockout on Thursday!

danseels1985 wrote:Hey all,first post for the year. Have only thrown together my first draft over the last couple of days,not sure what to make of it yet,I’m still trying to catch up with all the pages. Here’s my team early doors

Cheese
Carrigan Nicholls Cotter
Hopgood Katoa
Hynes Cleary
Alamoti R.Smith
Teddy To’o CNK

Kenny
Boyd
I.Katoa
Doorey
Talau
AKP
Luke
Sloan

Not bad mate but personally for me running with 7 guys at 250k is far too risky for my liking especially in a year with all these byes now meaning squad depth is likely more important.

Milchcow wrote:

I don't pay attention either. I have 14 players over $700k.

Salary cap is irrelevant

Yeah, yeah, very pithy…..picking a team within the salary cap will mean that it sorts itself out. If you stray too far from the balance point your team won’t work either mathematically or logically. The final count in each price band is irrelevant. There isn’t a ‘correct’ ratio or formula and the original post is just more fishing for positive affirmation.


Edit: What Booze said

@rabbits21 I wasn't taking the piss with that big writeup and it's useful if you want to use it.

Anyways simply make a mental short list of players and relax until next week.
On tuesday when lists are announced have a cup of proper strong yorkshire hot tea and calm the fuck out.
It's simply a game of tetris now to fit everyone in with hopefully few suprises as you have done your preseason homework

The problem you have is you want to follow everyone else and their decisions without knowing why they are making them or actually listening to the advice and learning from them
Any answers or advice given should only be to help reaffirm your own choices, not make them for you.

If you want to take this serious or get better then take this onboard and learn from your mistakes
Otherwise you are one step behind every week including trades and will never make that jump up

Do what you want with this advice

Boozecluez wrote:@rabbits21 I wasn't taking the piss with that big writeup and it's useful if you want to use it.

Anyways simply make a mental short list of players and relax until next week.
On tuesday when lists are announced have a cup of proper strong yorkshire hot tea and calm the fuck out.
It's simply a game of tetris now to fit everyone in with hopefully few suprises as you have done your preseason homework

The problem you have is you want to follow everyone else and their decisions without knowing why they are making them or actually listening to the advice and learning from them
Any answers or advice given should only be to help reaffirm your own choices, not make them for you.

If you want to take this serious or get better then take this onboard and learn from your mistakes
Otherwise you are one step behind every week including trades and will never make that jump up

Do what you want with this advice

This and your first post on the topic

1/ Cook - E.Katoa - Hopgood

or

2/ H. Grant - Hopgood - B. Smith

There is also a world where I could have option two + E. Katoa by not running with Sutton.

Good to see Booze bringing the clues!

mickspicks wrote:1/ Cook - E.Katoa - Hopgood

or

2/ H. Grant - Hopgood - B. Smith

There is also a world where I could have option two + E. Katoa by not running with Sutton.

I like option 2+

Boozecluez wrote:I remember being part of the all the discussion and calculations of a 'price of a trade' back in the day so still laugh when told things in concrete or XYZ player isn't worth it. Maybe I have been playing this game too long or getting old but it's funny seeing it recycled.
Then somehow every year finish probably top 10 in overall team value (without blowing my own trumpet) something I am decent at ignoring this as it all balances out in the end.
The discussions with multiple people in my old trials and tribulations threads, using graphs and the data available recorded there along with multiple spreadsheets to see if it was all worth it was probably futile in the end.
Private message discussions with the godfather of fantasy stats Steve Nicholls (RIP) even discussing said thing who was a big sharer and wanted to look into this further and expand on it, but ultimately there were too many variables and a lot of luck involved to come to an exact conclusion.

Do you know what I learnt from all of this?

Wait until TLT, choose your cheapies, captain and must haves then have fun working out how to fill in the remaining 6 or 7 spots
It was fun breaking everything down, and so is not caring too for the more recent years
But the results end up the same regardless so just have fun and don't overthink things
When you have autopick teams/template teams/hooker experiment team/Half experiment team last year still going well then it's not that important who you choose to start the year
Or maybe its all just luck so disregard the above too

I have one final factor, choosing players I like watching/want to cheer for

mickspicks wrote:1/ Cook - E.Katoa - Hopgood

or

2/ H. Grant - Hopgood - B. Smith

There is also a world where I could have option two + E. Katoa by not running with Sutton.

Definitely 2

Chewie wrote:

I like option 2+

I was thinking so too. Banks some bucks too.

Chewie wrote:Good to see Booze bringing the clues!

I was finishing off a drink

mickspicks wrote:1/ Cook - E.Katoa - Hopgood

or

2/ H. Grant - Hopgood - B. Smith

There is also a world where I could have option two + E. Katoa by not running with Sutton.

Option 1. I don't think Smith outscores Katoa by more than 6 which I think is the difference between Cook and Grant.
Cook also has no early byes which will be worth extra points.
I think option 1 is also cheaper?

Boozecluez wrote:@rabbits21 I wasn't taking the piss with that big writeup and it's useful if you want to use it.

Anyways simply make a mental short list of players and relax until next week.
On tuesday when lists are announced have a cup of proper strong yorkshire hot tea and calm the fuck out.
It's simply a game of tetris now to fit everyone in with hopefully few suprises as you have done your preseason homework

The problem you have is you want to follow everyone else and their decisions without knowing why they are making them or actually listening to the advice and learning from them
Any answers or advice given should only be to help reaffirm your own choices, not make them for you.

If you want to take this serious or get better then take this onboard and learn from your mistakes
Otherwise you are one step behind every week including trades and will never make that jump up

Do what you want with this advice

I agree with the Tetris thing as I am pretty shit at that too!