NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

easytiger wrote:


The Bulldogs in '22 averaged about 1 point per game more than the Tigers in attack - both teams with much the same back 5's as they have this year.
It remains to be seen whether the Bulldogs have resolved their Fullback issue - but they are certainly inexperienced there.

I'm not convinced that a Flanagan-Burton combo is significantly better than Brooks-Doueihi - especially now that the game plan (allegedly) isn't hit up 5 tackles and put up a bomb. Brooks isn't a great player, but nor is he the worst out there - he's servicible.

The Bulldogs picked up Mahoney - the Tigers Koroisau (I'd suggest the later is better)
The Bulldogs picked up Kikau - the Tigers Papali'i (again I'd argue Papali'i has a greater impact across 80 minutes)

Then the Tigers also picked up notably good players in Klemmer and Bateman.
Sheens is old, but younger than Wayne Bennett. He has won 4 premierships and should be aided by having Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah as assistants who are more in tune with the current game.

Cameron Ciraldo has coached 6 NRL games for a 3 win, 3 loss record - regardless of how well-rated he is, the jury is out as to whether he is a good first-grade coach.

The Tigers have probably had the worst pack in the NRL for the last few years (and the worst roster IMO), I'd suggest that the changes are likely to provide a significant improvement on what's been on the park in recent years.

Camo123 wrote:Was just having a deeper look at Elliot to see if he can sustain 60 min lock role moving to Knights

Since Adam O'Brien coach at Knights he seems to have preferred a big min lock:
2020 - Barnett 9 games starting at lock - 74 min average
2021 - Watson 8 games starting at lock - 64 min average (13 games starting interchange - 50 mins average - recall him always being shifted to interchange)
2022 - Mann 10 games starting lock - 66 min average + Barnett 6 games starting lock 66 min average

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

Thank you was wavering on Elliot, will keep him, he has a good playing style for fantasy points

Camo123 wrote:Was just having a deeper look at Elliot to see if he can sustain 60 min lock role moving to Knights

Since Adam O'Brien coach at Knights he seems to have preferred a big min lock:
2020 - Barnett 9 games starting at lock - 74 min average
2021 - Watson 8 games starting at lock - 64 min average (13 games starting interchange - 50 mins average - recall him always being shifted to interchange)
2022 - Mann 10 games starting lock - 66 min average + Barnett 6 games starting lock 66 min average

Mulvy wrote:

He's priced at 45, got a slight discount.

I don't think low 50's is out of the question. I feel that 2022 was just a bit of a down year for him. Averaged 61.2 the year before and 50.9 the year before that (but 56.5 in games over 60 min)

There's no one stat to explain it, everything was just a bit down. A few less tackles, a couple more missed. Someone pointed out last year that he was defending a bit wider, will be interesting to see if trials gives us an idea of where he is defending. A couple less assists, a few less run metres, a few less kick metres, a few more penalties.

Even if he averaged 50 that'd be good enough value and able to be held until the byes. He's got a banner in him though so has some upside as well.

Mulvy wrote:

He's priced at 45, got a slight discount.

I don't think low 50's is out of the question. I feel that 2022 was just a bit of a down year for him. Averaged 61.2 the year before and 50.9 the year before that (but 56.5 in games over 60 min)

There's no one stat to explain it, everything was just a bit down. A few less tackles, a couple more missed. Someone pointed out last year that he was defending a bit wider, will be interesting to see if trials gives us an idea of where he is defending. A couple less assists, a few less run metres, a few less kick metres, a few more penalties.

Even if he averaged 50 that'd be good enough value and able to be held until the byes. He's got a banner in him though so has some upside as well.

Revraiser wrote:Miller will be found out early on.

Revraiser wrote:Miller will be found out early on.

Lchy wrote:

I think so too. I'm honestly not that keen on any Knights other than maybe Elliott if he gets a safe role. I just don't see how a team under O'Brien, who has had 3 seasons in charge and they've gotten worse each time, improves all of a sudden for spine players to be fantasy relevant.

Lchy wrote:

I think so too. I'm honestly not that keen on any Knights other than maybe Elliott if he gets a safe role. I just don't see how a team under O'Brien, who has had 3 seasons in charge and they've gotten worse each time, improves all of a sudden for spine players to be fantasy relevant.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Who are your back 3 currently mate?

White Lightning wrote:that little warriors fb looks good & he's a good tackler

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thoughts on Robson mate? In 30 odd games playing over 70mins he avg 58.

Lchy wrote:

I haven't landed on anything concrete yet but I'm planning on loading up as cheap as possible. I've got a gut feeling about Suaalii gunning up moving to centre so I might start with him, TMM, Perham, HTF are also guys that have been in and out of my drafts. I'll probably start with Sloan on my 18-21 to let me loop round 1 also. Plus Thompson when he inevitably gets dual will be in my side.

easytiger wrote:

I struggle to see much upside for Mahoney - I get about 3 points maybe?
Aside from Vlandy's ball, he's been a consistent tackle-bot style for a regulation 48-50 points and he's priced at 46.
So, I'm not sure if there's a suggestion he adds some attacking stats to create value & shift him towards keeper level? - I get the bye-friendly start is a nice advantage

AL wrote:I can’t believe we’ve come this far and no one has brought up Host or Lawrie?

Edit: not a fan of a bye each week. Should have just relegated the donkeys or let in two teams.