NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 104 - What do numbers even mean anymore

robelgordo wrote:

So Titans have their last bye the same round Broncos have their first? They do love a complication, the NRL draw deciders.

Never happen, but to one day to take out all the competing interests and have a draw that a layperson can somewhat understand would be nice.

You mean like a randomised draw, or dare I say it, a balanced draw?  sounds like NRL heresy

Anyway, it is quite amusing that the Titans-Broncos comparison.
Hypothetically, if you had say a fantasy-relevant non-Origin Bronco's player (e.g. Reynolds) that didn't tend to get suspended /injured (Reynolds) that you could pivot to a similar non-Origin Titans player (e.g. ummm) - then that roster spot could play 26 games compared to the 24 of players missing all 3 byes...

Dreams are free I guess

I think the bye schedule will see a lot of coaches over think it and choose inferior players to start the season because they have a better bye schedule in 12 weeks. Pick the best players, don't overload from any one team and target non-origin guns. Only thing to really consider is timing of upgrades/downgrades around the byes

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I think the bye schedule will see a lot of coaches over think it and choose inferior players to start the season because they have a better bye schedule in 12 weeks. Pick the best players, don't overload from any one team and target non-origin guns. Only thing to really consider is timing of upgrades/downgrades around the byes

Definitely, there's way too much risk in picking players based on a favourable R13+ bye period.
One injury, suspension, or drop in form and it completely renders any minor upside meaningless.

It will be interesting if the early single-round byes influence people bypassing guns who are guaranteed to miss a game in the opening month (Dragons, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Roosters)

I actually think the biggest draw injustice was making the Warriors play a home game in magic round

Years of being forced to play their home games in Australia, and now they finally have a full season at home the NRL feels like they have to keep the over here for an extra week.

easytiger wrote:

Definitely, there's way too much risk in picking players based on a favourable R13+ bye period.
One injury, suspension, or drop in form and it completely renders any minor upside meaningless.

It will be interesting if the early single-round byes influence people bypassing guns who are guaranteed to miss a game in the opening month (Dragons, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Roosters)

I wonder if they'll persist with a 21 man squad, or if they'll give us extra players/trades to handle the byes.

2+ players on the bye and an injury/suspension means people could be struggling to field 17 from early in the season. DPP going to be very important for squad coverage.

If they keep the current strategy of bye players locking out at the end of the round, it means that loopholing is going to become a lot more popular.

Spoiler alert. They will just add more trades.

Milchcow wrote:
I actually think the biggest draw injustice was making the Warriors play a home game in magic round

Years of being forced to play their home games in Australia, and now they finally have a full season at home the NRL feels like they have to keep the over here for an extra week.

Warriors should have had a whole season in NZ, imo, not just Auckland, take the "away" games around the country. But that might grow the game so would never do.

my tv broke wrote:Spoiler alert. They will just add more trades.

Its certainly easier to code more trades than to change the whole user interface to cater for more players in a squad. but I'd still like more than 4 subs to choose from.

Milchcow wrote:

I wonder if they'll persist with a 21 man squad, or if they'll give us extra players/trades to handle the byes.

2+ players on the bye and an injury/suspension means people could be struggling to field 17 from early in the season. DPP going to be very important for squad coverage.

If they keep the current strategy of bye players locking out at the end of the round, it means that loopholing is going to become a lot more popular.

A 23-man squad would make more sense. Would change the long game play too with (effectively) two more cash cows, but yeah, they're not going to get the coding and design sorted out for that are they, so realistically it'll be extra trades and four trades a week because they've got the set-up for that already.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Warriors should have had a whole season in NZ, imo, not just Auckland, take the "away" games around the country. But that might grow the game so would never do.

The way they have handled the Warriors' draw is pretty poor, all things considered.
In the opening 2 and a half months, the Warriors don't get a single back-to-back game in NZ - so there is constant travel - I'd be surprised if any other team had to do more travel than them.

It is part of being outside of Sydney, but you'd think on the back of the last two years that the NRL could've done a bit better by them.
I gather there were suggestions that some clubs could take a home game to NZ, in reality, it is only the Tigers in Round 24 that are playing a home game in NZ.

May be a cheapy hooker at the dragons with AM9 retiring

thelastdodo wrote:May be a cheapy hooker at the dragons with AM9 retiring

We signed Liddle

Re byes, I think it would make more sense to expand squads but probably easier just to add trades.

robelgordo wrote:

We signed Liddle

Re byes, I think it would make more sense to expand squads but probably easier just to add trades.

Corrected: There may be a cheapie hooker from R2 for the Dragons

Milchcow wrote:

Corrected: There may be a cheapie hooker from R2 for the Dragons

Probably R3.

R1 bye, R2 Liddle injured, R3 ???

Brave of you to suggest Liddle will get through the bye unscathed

Some thoughts on next year's draw and its effects on fantasy (I did my last uni exam yesterday, so I figured I'd hop back on here and do some planning for 2023)

* The Warriors and Dolphins are the only teams that have only one bye in the Origin period (round 13-20), so players like Tohu Harris, Mitch Barnett, Josh Curran and any relevant Dolphins players (can't see too many relevant ones in their squad atm) will be very valuable to have over Origin

* The Storm, Broncos, Dolphins, Warriors, Panthers and Roosters are the best teams to have Origin players in, as they play all three backup rounds (14, 17, 20) and none of them have a turnaround of less than 3 days for Origin players. Odds are your big Origin players would miss 4 games instead of the minimum of 3 anyway, but if you must hold Origin players over the period, guys like Munster and Teddy are probably the best bets (Storm and Roosters also have very appealing draws for the run home based on current expectations but we saw this year how wrong those can be)

* The Cowboys, Eels, Rabbitohs, Broncos and Bulldogs are the only teams who do not have any byes between round 1 and 12, so those would be the best teams for buying "anchor" players from (e.g. Cotter, Haas, Moses, Cook, Burton). Of these the Eels are probably the best to have as a full year hold, as they play all three Origin rounds, so you'll want at least one or two non-Origin Eels players.

* Dragons, Manly and Penrith players will be more poddish than usual, due to their early byes so if you're channeling your inner mattnz, you might want to look at guys from those teams (e.g. Bunt, Olakau'atu, Yeo, To'o). It also might scare a few people off starting with Turbo but given how cheap Turbo will likely be (based on his 2022 average, around 500k), I doubt many will leave him out.

* The Storm play the Eels, Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers in the first 4 rounds. This makes players Papenhuyzen more appealing, as the last two years, he's started on fire before going down around round 9-10. Obviously depends on how he's going with the injury but if he's looking fit and healthy, he's my first player picked.

* The Cowboys early draw is even better, with the Raiders, Broncos, Warriors, Titans, Bulldogs, Dolphins, Warriors and Knights in the first 8 rounds, so guys like Robson could benefit a lot.

Bethany_B wrote:Some thoughts on next year's draw and its effects on fantasy (I did my last uni exam yesterday, so I figured I'd hop back on here and do some planning for 2023)

TLDR - Synopsis - Melbourne are going to get robbed on a weekly basis

No Worries wrote:

TLDR - Synopsis - Melbourne are going to get robbed on a weekly basis

Well yeah, as we all know, anytime my team loses it's because they were robbed, and anytime they win it's because they're just that good.

Bethany_B wrote:

Well yeah, as we all know, anytime my team loses it's because they were robbed, and anytime they win it's because they're just that good.

The beauty of being a Warriors fan is that you never have to worry about this part.

Knights spine shaping up to look very interesting/capable:

1. Miller
6. Ponga
7. Hastings
9. Brailey