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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:24 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    I think they are generally happy to sacrifice a few metres to make sure its well over the sideline.
    Yep and it's a bigger deal in League to miss as well. In Union if you don't make the sideline, you're just as likely to get the ball kicked back to you as you are to face a 15 phase, 50m push up the middle.

    Not to mention that in Union you're not guaranteed to win your own lineout, whereas in league, getting it over the sideline means you definitely get the ball back in attack.
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:26 am

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just out of curiosity, but who is the most important player to have out of David Fifita and Tedescoe? Cleary and Turbo are obviously the top 2 but I guess these guys are 3rd and 4th.
    Fifita for sure.

    I wouldn't even put Teddy in my top 10 this year.
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    Post by Lchy Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:31 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

    This is how you know it's been a long preseason, Leniu is back on the menu
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:32 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    Fifita for sure.

    I wouldn't even put Teddy in my top 10 this year.
    Even with so many FB’s out for Rd1 and beyond?
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    Post by Lchy Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:33 am

    I thought Luki passed the eye test beautifully in the Cows Bronx game which apparently translated into 49 fantasy points off ??? minutes. Priced at 35 and just signed a big deal so is obviously rated highly. Maybe a handy alternative with better job security than the likes of Katoa around that price range
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:35 am

    Lchy wrote:

    This is how you know it's been a long preseason, Leniu is back on the menu
    I’ll go the vegan option then!
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:38 am

    Lchy wrote:I thought Luki passed the eye test beautifully in the Cows Bronx game which apparently translated into 49 fantasy points off ??? minutes. Priced at 35 and just signed a big deal so is obviously rated highly. Maybe a handy alternative with better job security than the likes of Katoa around that price range
    It is so annoying that Nanai didn’t play!
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:47 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

    - The last 3 years have seen Leniu's minutes increase from 17, to 23, to 25. It wouldn't be absurd to assume his minutes could push to 30 on that trend alone.
    - To support the above trend, Leniu is another year older, with another preseason under his belt, and more finals experience. He will be a better player, fitter, and more capable of taking more responsibility (minutes) within each game.

    Panthers forward pack minutes analysis:
    - Api averaged 75 mins in 2020, but only 65 in 2021. Given he's moving to the Tigers (I think?) next year, I can see the 2021 average minutes remain, and potentially even drop, as they give Mitch Kenny more game time. This doesn't directly impact Leniu's minutes, however it means that Mitch Kenny is likely on the bench to take only 15-20 mins off Api, and also cover the backline should injuries occur. I am using this point to "remove" Kenny from my forward-pack minutes analysis.
    - Yeo has consistently spent 65ish minutes on the park (+- 3 mins) for the last 3 years, unlikely to change. [65]
    - JFH has had drastically reduced minutes in the last 3 years (76, 57, 52). As he ages, this trend could continue and I estimate the fish will average around 50 minutes a game in 2022. [50]
    - Leota has increased his minutes since 2019 from 31, to 33, to 38. I suspect this will continue to increase, and he will increase by 5 minutes a game. [43]
    - Kurt Capewell has departed, and Liam Martin will be taking his place on the right edge. Based on the available statistics, both Capewell and Martin have averaged around 68 minutes on that right edge when starting, and I don't think that will change this year. Kikau averaged 69 mins in 2020, and only 60 minutes in 2021 as they used him for a second stint impact player. I suspect the 2021 minutes will remain the same. [68 + 60 = 128]


    Given this analysis, of the 400 minutes available at Prop/Lock/Edge, 286 [65 + 50 + 43 + 128] minutes are accounted for from the starting players. This leaves 114 minutes for Eisenhuth, Sorensen, and Leniu.

    - In 2021 Eisenhuth averaged [33] minutes off the interchange.
    - In 2021 Sorensen averaged [38] minutes off the interchange.

    Subtract these two averaged from 114 and you're left with 43 minutes for Spencer Leniu.

    Now I'm not suggesting that this will all go to plan, as these are only this author's predictions. Perhaps Mitch Kenny will also take some of Yeo's Lock minutes. Perhaps Leniu will fall out of favour. Perhaps JFH will go back to playing huge minutes in the middle. Perhaps Eisenhuth or Sorensen will really impress and gain more minutes themselves. There are of course too many options to explore them all.

    However what we can say for sure is that the minutes are there for Leniu to take, and with his PPM of 1 (rounded down to assumed more minutes), I can easily see 10 points of upside if he's given at least 35 minutes (8 less than those on offer).

    Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

    I expect Sorenson to have Martin's role from last season with 51 minutes off the bench. They can run the same rotation they did with Capewell.

    Eisenhuth is capable of playing much higher minutes, he averaged 58 minutes the season before, so could easily pick up more minutes if available. If there was an injury or suspension for JFH or Yeo, he is the most likely recipient of the big minute role.

    Leniu may get an increase in minutes, but I wouldn't be banking on any more than an extra 5 minutes per game.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:54 am

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just out of curiosity, but who is the most important player to have out of David Fifita and Tedesco? Cleary and Turbo are obviously the top 2 but I guess these guys are 3rd and 4th.
    I rate Fifita the most likely to become an uber gun at Cleary and Turbo level, if getting and playing hard for 80 minutes. Next most likely would be 80 minute Grant, 80 minute McInnes and a fit Papy.

    Teddy may improve on last season, but is coming back from knee surgery on a chronic injury, the same as Croker, just not as advanced at this stage. There was an article that was saying it is likely to keep getting worse over the next few years. We may have seen peak Teddy.
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:07 am

    mattnz wrote:

    I expect Sorenson to have Martin's role from last season with 51 minutes off the bench. They can run the same rotation they did with Capewell.

    Eisenhuth is capable of playing much higher minutes, he averaged 58 minutes the season before, so could easily pick up more minutes if available. If there was an injury or suspension for JFH or Yeo, he is the most likely recipient of the big minute role.

    Leniu may get an increase in minutes, but I wouldn't be banking on any more than an extra 5 minutes per game.
    Eisenhuth's 58 minute average was bulked by starting in all but 4 games. So yes, he can play big minutes, but based on last season it appears they don't want him to. Yep he'd get the starting big minute role given an injury, but that's not what I was projecting/hoping for Leniu anyway.

    Martin only averaged 47 mins off the interchange, the 51 mins comes from some starts. So yep you're right I didn't really factor in the "role" a Martin replacement might play, but the minutes were all factored in. But let's say Sorensen is rated as highly as Martin for the edge replacement, that's an extra 9 minutes for Sorensen (or 9 minutes less for Leniu). But then again, that's also 9 minutes that Sorensen isn't playing in the middle, and perhaps that slots straight back into Leniu's role. Perhaps the change simply becomes:

    Martin becomes Capewell.
    Sorensen becomes Martin.
    Leniu becomes Sorensen.

    Bang, 38 minutes average.

    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:11 am

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
    Even with so many FB’s out for Rd1 and beyond?
    When I said not even in my top 10, I was talking average wise.

    In terms of his importance in his position, I consider him a top 5 WFB with Turbo, Hynes, Papy, and Latrell.

    In terms of his importance overall, maybe he gets in the top 10 important players, but I doubt it.

    Just off the top of my head, and factoring in difficulty in the positions, these are some players I'd have in front of Teddy for my "want" in my side:

    Cleary
    Turbo
    iPap
    Fifita
    McInnes
    Crichton
    DCE
    Haas
    Grant
    Cook

    and that's just off the top of my head, probably missing a whole bunch more I'd crave before Teddy.
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:15 am

    I CLAIM NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYONE'S CHOICE TO PICK LENIU IN THEIR SIDE. I ACCEPT NO LIABILITY FOR THE INFLUENCE OF MY PREVIOUS POSTS, AND MY LAWYER HAS MADE IT CLEAR TO ME THAT I HAD TO MAKE THIS POST IN ALL CAPS TO ABSOLVE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACTIONS OF OTHER COACHES.

    seriously though, I'm picking him and will probably complain that no one talked me out of it
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:18 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

    - The last 3 years have seen Leniu's minutes increase from 17, to 23, to 25. It wouldn't be absurd to assume his minutes could push to 30 on that trend alone.
    - To support the above trend, Leniu is another year older, with another preseason under his belt, and more finals experience. He will be a better player, fitter, and more capable of taking more responsibility (minutes) within each game.

    Panthers forward pack minutes analysis:
    - Api averaged 75 mins in 2020, but only 65 in 2021. Given he's moving to the Tigers (I think?) next year, I can see the 2021 average minutes remain, and potentially even drop, as they give Mitch Kenny more game time. This doesn't directly impact Leniu's minutes, however it means that Mitch Kenny is likely on the bench to take only 15-20 mins off Api, and also cover the backline should injuries occur. I am using this point to "remove" Kenny from my forward-pack minutes analysis.
    - Yeo has consistently spent 65ish minutes on the park (+- 3 mins) for the last 3 years, unlikely to change. [65]
    - JFH has had drastically reduced minutes in the last 3 years (76, 57, 52). As he ages, this trend could continue and I estimate the fish will average around 50 minutes a game in 2022. [50]
    - Leota has increased his minutes since 2019 from 31, to 33, to 38. I suspect this will continue to increase, and he will increase by 5 minutes a game. [43]
    - Kurt Capewell has departed, and Liam Martin will be taking his place on the right edge. Based on the available statistics, both Capewell and Martin have averaged around 68 minutes on that right edge when starting, and I don't think that will change this year. Kikau averaged 69 mins in 2020, and only 60 minutes in 2021 as they used him for a second stint impact player. I suspect the 2021 minutes will remain the same. [68 + 60 = 128]


    Given this analysis, of the 400 minutes available at Prop/Lock/Edge, 286 [65 + 50 + 43 + 128] minutes are accounted for from the starting players. This leaves 114 minutes for Eisenhuth, Sorensen, and Leniu.

    - In 2021 Eisenhuth averaged [33] minutes off the interchange.
    - In 2021 Sorensen averaged [38] minutes off the interchange.

    Subtract these two averaged from 114 and you're left with 43 minutes for Spencer Leniu.

    Now I'm not suggesting that this will all go to plan, as these are only this author's predictions. Perhaps Mitch Kenny will also take some of Yeo's Lock minutes. Perhaps Leniu will fall out of favour. Perhaps JFH will go back to playing huge minutes in the middle. Perhaps Eisenhuth or Sorensen will really impress and gain more minutes themselves. There are of course too many options to explore them all.

    However what we can say for sure is that the minutes are there for Leniu to take, and with his PPM of 1 (rounded down to assumed more minutes), I can easily see 10 points of upside if he's given at least 35 minutes (8 less than those on offer).

    Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

    2021 called, they want their Leniu analysis back
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:23 am

    Snatchpato wrote:I CLAIM NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYONE'S CHOICE TO PICK LENIU IN THEIR SIDE. I ACCEPT NO LIABILITY FOR THE INFLUENCE OF MY PREVIOUS POSTS, AND MY LAWYER HAS MADE IT CLEAR TO ME THAT I HAD TO MAKE THIS POST IN ALL CAPS TO ABSOLVE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACTIONS OF OTHER COACHES.

    seriously though, I'm picking him and will probably complain that no one talked me out of it

    well this should lock it in for you

    When asked if he believes Penrith have the player pool strong enough to defend their titles, Geyer said “I think it runs deep.”

    “Someone like Scott Sorensen who came of age last year… he is a real solid player,” Geyer said.

    “Without being spectacular he does his job and he is the type of player that every team needs.

    “Spencer Leniu by all accounts he is the strongest at the club in the forward pack and training the house down.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:24 am

    vicchaos wrote:Hiya Fellas,

    Long time lurker, figured I would sign up.

    Does anyone know where I can get some NRLFF NFT's ?

    Do people feel that with the change back to penalties that the game will slow down slightly and the workhorses will become more relevant again with the drop of kick meters and tackle busts ?


    Welcome

    There may be a slight change in scoring for some players, but I don't think it will be enough to really notice.
    I think that the tackle break nerf & kick meter nerf will have more of a noticeable impact
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    Post by Chewie Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:33 am

    Leniu is a slow burn... he'll increase his avg by 5 points each season. He'll reach gun status in a few years time
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:40 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Also took a closer look at Coates' stats and glad I did.

    I thought Coates would do much better in the Melbourne system in terms of his work ethic coming out of his back end. I always felt like JAC took a lot more hit ups running the ball back than Coates, but looking at their stats JACs AVG mg is 122 and Coates' is 114. Coates 0.6 tries per game is not far off JACs 0.8, so I don't actually see enough upside there despite the "Melbourne factor".

    Cheap? Yes. For a reason? Also yes.

    Disclaimer: Coates still may feature in my side, but it will almost certainly be in my emergencies as cover and hoping for an early, money-making, sun-run.

    Pretty much the same conclusion I came to. Don't want him anywhere near the 17 and probably more suited to 20 or 21 spot in the team. Will depend on how much cash is left over
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:46 am

    mattnz wrote:

    I expect Sorenson to have Martin's role from last season with 51 minutes off the bench. They can run the same rotation they did with Capewell.


    Ignoring everything else the reason they ran a 3 second rower rotation was due to the talent of Capewell, Martin and Kikau. Having 3 rep quality second rowers practically forces you to create a rotation that gives them all game time. Sorenson is a fringe first grader and not even close to the same talent as Capewell
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:48 am

    Chewie wrote:Leniu is a slow burn... he'll increase his avg by 5 points each season. He'll reach gun status in a few years time

    If we buy him now can we keep him in our side until 2026?
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:50 am

    Chewie wrote:Leniu is a slow burn... he'll increase his avg by 5 points each season. He'll reach gun status in a few years time

    I think he probably needs to leave to reach fantasy gun status. Won't have a chance with JFH and Yeo eating big minutes in the middle

      Current date/time is Sun May 22, 2022 11:28 am