NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

my tv broke wrote:

I think they are generally happy to sacrifice a few metres to make sure its well over the sideline.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just out of curiosity, but who is the most important player to have out of David Fifita and Tedescoe? Cleary and Turbo are obviously the top 2 but I guess these guys are 3rd and 4th.

Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

Snatchpato wrote:
Fifita for sure.

I wouldn't even put Teddy in my top 10 this year.

Lchy wrote:

This is how you know it's been a long preseason, Leniu is back on the menu

Lchy wrote:I thought Luki passed the eye test beautifully in the Cows Bronx game which apparently translated into 49 fantasy points off ??? minutes. Priced at 35 and just signed a big deal so is obviously rated highly. Maybe a handy alternative with better job security than the likes of Katoa around that price range

Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

- The last 3 years have seen Leniu's minutes increase from 17, to 23, to 25. It wouldn't be absurd to assume his minutes could push to 30 on that trend alone.
- To support the above trend, Leniu is another year older, with another preseason under his belt, and more finals experience. He will be a better player, fitter, and more capable of taking more responsibility (minutes) within each game.

Panthers forward pack minutes analysis:
- Api averaged 75 mins in 2020, but only 65 in 2021. Given he's moving to the Tigers (I think?) next year, I can see the 2021 average minutes remain, and potentially even drop, as they give Mitch Kenny more game time. This doesn't directly impact Leniu's minutes, however it means that Mitch Kenny is likely on the bench to take only 15-20 mins off Api, and also cover the backline should injuries occur. I am using this point to "remove" Kenny from my forward-pack minutes analysis.
- Yeo has consistently spent 65ish minutes on the park (+- 3 mins) for the last 3 years, unlikely to change. [65]
- JFH has had drastically reduced minutes in the last 3 years (76, 57, 52). As he ages, this trend could continue and I estimate the fish will average around 50 minutes a game in 2022. [50]
- Leota has increased his minutes since 2019 from 31, to 33, to 38. I suspect this will continue to increase, and he will increase by 5 minutes a game. [43]
- Kurt Capewell has departed, and Liam Martin will be taking his place on the right edge. Based on the available statistics, both Capewell and Martin have averaged around 68 minutes on that right edge when starting, and I don't think that will change this year. Kikau averaged 69 mins in 2020, and only 60 minutes in 2021 as they used him for a second stint impact player. I suspect the 2021 minutes will remain the same. [68 + 60 = 128]


Given this analysis, of the 400 minutes available at Prop/Lock/Edge, 286 [65 + 50 + 43 + 128] minutes are accounted for from the starting players. This leaves 114 minutes for Eisenhuth, Sorensen, and Leniu.

- In 2021 Eisenhuth averaged [33] minutes off the interchange.
- In 2021 Sorensen averaged [38] minutes off the interchange.

Subtract these two averaged from 114 and you're left with 43 minutes for Spencer Leniu.

Now I'm not suggesting that this will all go to plan, as these are only this author's predictions. Perhaps Mitch Kenny will also take some of Yeo's Lock minutes. Perhaps Leniu will fall out of favour. Perhaps JFH will go back to playing huge minutes in the middle. Perhaps Eisenhuth or Sorensen will really impress and gain more minutes themselves. There are of course too many options to explore them all.

However what we can say for sure is that the minutes are there for Leniu to take, and with his PPM of 1 (rounded down to assumed more minutes), I can easily see 10 points of upside if he's given at least 35 minutes (8 less than those on offer).

Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just out of curiosity, but who is the most important player to have out of David Fifita and Tedesco? Cleary and Turbo are obviously the top 2 but I guess these guys are 3rd and 4th.

mattnz wrote:

I expect Sorenson to have Martin's role from last season with 51 minutes off the bench. They can run the same rotation they did with Capewell.

Eisenhuth is capable of playing much higher minutes, he averaged 58 minutes the season before, so could easily pick up more minutes if available. If there was an injury or suspension for JFH or Yeo, he is the most likely recipient of the big minute role.

Leniu may get an increase in minutes, but I wouldn't be banking on any more than an extra 5 minutes per game.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Even with so many FB’s out for Rd1 and beyond?

Snatchpato wrote:Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

- The last 3 years have seen Leniu's minutes increase from 17, to 23, to 25. It wouldn't be absurd to assume his minutes could push to 30 on that trend alone.
- To support the above trend, Leniu is another year older, with another preseason under his belt, and more finals experience. He will be a better player, fitter, and more capable of taking more responsibility (minutes) within each game.

Panthers forward pack minutes analysis:
- Api averaged 75 mins in 2020, but only 65 in 2021. Given he's moving to the Tigers (I think?) next year, I can see the 2021 average minutes remain, and potentially even drop, as they give Mitch Kenny more game time. This doesn't directly impact Leniu's minutes, however it means that Mitch Kenny is likely on the bench to take only 15-20 mins off Api, and also cover the backline should injuries occur. I am using this point to "remove" Kenny from my forward-pack minutes analysis.
- Yeo has consistently spent 65ish minutes on the park (+- 3 mins) for the last 3 years, unlikely to change. [65]
- JFH has had drastically reduced minutes in the last 3 years (76, 57, 52). As he ages, this trend could continue and I estimate the fish will average around 50 minutes a game in 2022. [50]
- Leota has increased his minutes since 2019 from 31, to 33, to 38. I suspect this will continue to increase, and he will increase by 5 minutes a game. [43]
- Kurt Capewell has departed, and Liam Martin will be taking his place on the right edge. Based on the available statistics, both Capewell and Martin have averaged around 68 minutes on that right edge when starting, and I don't think that will change this year. Kikau averaged 69 mins in 2020, and only 60 minutes in 2021 as they used him for a second stint impact player. I suspect the 2021 minutes will remain the same. [68 + 60 = 128]


Given this analysis, of the 400 minutes available at Prop/Lock/Edge, 286 [65 + 50 + 43 + 128] minutes are accounted for from the starting players. This leaves 114 minutes for Eisenhuth, Sorensen, and Leniu.

- In 2021 Eisenhuth averaged [33] minutes off the interchange.
- In 2021 Sorensen averaged [38] minutes off the interchange.

Subtract these two averaged from 114 and you're left with 43 minutes for Spencer Leniu.

Now I'm not suggesting that this will all go to plan, as these are only this author's predictions. Perhaps Mitch Kenny will also take some of Yeo's Lock minutes. Perhaps Leniu will fall out of favour. Perhaps JFH will go back to playing huge minutes in the middle. Perhaps Eisenhuth or Sorensen will really impress and gain more minutes themselves. There are of course too many options to explore them all.

However what we can say for sure is that the minutes are there for Leniu to take, and with his PPM of 1 (rounded down to assumed more minutes), I can easily see 10 points of upside if he's given at least 35 minutes (8 less than those on offer).

Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

vicchaos wrote:Hiya Fellas,

Long time lurker, figured I would sign up.

Does anyone know where I can get some NRLFF NFT's ?

Do people feel that with the change back to penalties that the game will slow down slightly and the workhorses will become more relevant again with the drop of kick meters and tackle busts ?

Snatchpato wrote:Also took a closer look at Coates' stats and glad I did.

I thought Coates would do much better in the Melbourne system in terms of his work ethic coming out of his back end. I always felt like JAC took a lot more hit ups running the ball back than Coates, but looking at their stats JACs AVG mg is 122 and Coates' is 114. Coates 0.6 tries per game is not far off JACs 0.8, so I don't actually see enough upside there despite the "Melbourne factor".

Cheap? Yes. For a reason? Also yes.

Disclaimer: Coates still may feature in my side, but it will almost certainly be in my emergencies as cover and hoping for an early, money-making, sun-run.

mattnz wrote:

I expect Sorenson to have Martin's role from last season with 51 minutes off the bench. They can run the same rotation they did with Capewell.

Chewie wrote:Leniu is a slow burn... he'll increase his avg by 5 points each season. He'll reach gun status in a few years time

Chewie wrote:Leniu is a slow burn... he'll increase his avg by 5 points each season. He'll reach gun status in a few years time