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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:20 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Have you compared with previous years trial stats? I would have assumed kick metres would always be low in trials, but just a guess (not having a go)

    I haven't, just looks to be less than we were seeing during last season.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:21 pm


    Does anyone know of somewhere that has a printer friendly list of predicted teams this year?

    Just want to get something for Mrs Cow to help with her prep for our NearlySport draft
    Lchy
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    Post by Lchy Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:47 pm

    The Bludger#2 wrote:
    I can run Cleary, D. Fifita, Burton, Hynes and either Sexton or Clifford. Not sure how your team balance is looking if you try for the full sweep. 

    Surprisingly the team isn't atrocious:

    Spoiler:

    Basically just sacrificing big time in WFB, but even that can be fixed somewhat with the decent coin left over. Realistically I don't wanna take both Paulo and Coates points, one of them at most but I don't hate the concept in general. Also going starkers on hok cover, but again could just go Paix
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:05 pm

    Camo123 wrote:Papenhuyzen with the Burnley like ‘touch and go’ for R1

    Ryan Hoffman saying he’s 50/50 to be fit

    I'm not keen starting with Papy if he's racing the clock for round 1
    vicchaos
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    Post by vicchaos Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:41 pm

    Hiya Fellas,

    Long time lurker, figured I would sign up.

    Does anyone know where I can get some NRLFF NFT's ?

    Do people feel that with the change back to penalties that the game will slow down slightly and the workhorses will become more relevant again with the drop of kick meters and tackle busts ?
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:46 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Trials last year - avg 484 kick metres per team (those I have stats for)
    Actual season - avg 540 kick metres per team

    I don't have the stats, but as I've said before it's common sense that kicking metres will go down with the new six again rules. Won't be able to know how much by until a couple of months into the season.

    Scenario One: Player held down on 10m line coming out of own end. Six again. Team makes it to the 40m line and half puts in a 50m kick.

    Scenario Two: Player held down on 10m line coming out of own end. Penalty. Kick to touch to near halfway. Team makes it into opposition 20 and half puts in 10m attacking kick.
    StuDogg101
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    Post by StuDogg101 Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:53 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Everyone should definitely pick Kobe Hetherington.

    Do it

    Chewie wrote:

    Do it!:
    Spoiler:
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:42 pm

    Watching today’s trial back I think I’ve gone cold on J.King.

    I’m seeing some value in Clifford too.

    Can probs only have 1 of Clifford or Mann though.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:43 pm

    StuDogg101 wrote:


    Spoiler:
    You do it too then mate join me for the ride!
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:22 am

    Hey, I'll tell you something that's increasingly popular: fantasy sports.

    And I'll tell you something that's also a boom market: podcasts.

    Now I'll tell you what the NRL are doing: https://twitter.com/lone_scout/status/1497019664899383296?t=mwZ6TJKH91ptQ5hVB45gHQ&s=19
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:24 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Hey, I'll tell you something that's increasingly popular: fantasy sports.

    And I'll tell you something that's also a boom market: podcasts.

    Now I'll tell you what the NRL are doing: https://twitter.com/lone_scout/status/1497019664899383296?t=mwZ6TJKH91ptQ5hVB45gHQ&s=19
    I shouldn’t be surprised.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:45 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Hey, I'll tell you something that's increasingly popular: fantasy sports.

    And I'll tell you something that's also a boom market: podcasts.

    Now I'll tell you what the NRL are doing: https://twitter.com/lone_scout/status/1497019664899383296?t=mwZ6TJKH91ptQ5hVB45gHQ&s=19
    Amazing! I guess the next step is just cancel NRL Fantasy altogether!
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:12 am

    Been taking a look at some fullback stats (CNK, Edwards, etc) and really can't find value in these guys. They just don't contribute enough in attack for their sides to get extra points. Was really hoping I could find value in CNK in particular, but his base of 194 MG and 5 tackles really isn't enough to offset his lack of attacking stats.

    Gunna be trying to get WFB who have much more attacking upside like Hynes and Latrell. Obviously Turbo eventually but that goes without saying.

    The more I dove into Hynes' stats and role, the more I think he'll be the number 2 WFB this year. Starting with him for sure.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:16 am

    Snatchpato wrote:Been taking a look at some fullback stats (CNK, Edwards, etc) and really can't find value in these guys. They just don't contribute enough in attack for their sides to get extra points. Was really hoping I could find value in CNK in particular, but his base of 194 MG and 5 tackles really isn't enough to offset his lack of attacking stats.

    Gunna be trying to get WFB who have much more attacking upside like Hynes and Latrell. Obviously Turbo eventually but that goes without saying.

    The more I dove into Hynes' stats and role, the more I think he'll be the number 2 WFB this year. Starting with him for sure.

    Also seen CNK is apparently unvaxxed which might be become an issue down the track
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:22 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Also seen CNK is apparently unvaxxed which might be become an issue down the track

    Just had covid, so will be fine for the next 4 months with an exemption
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:22 am

    Also took a closer look at Coates' stats and glad I did.

    I thought Coates would do much better in the Melbourne system in terms of his work ethic coming out of his back end. I always felt like JAC took a lot more hit ups running the ball back than Coates, but looking at their stats JACs AVG mg is 122 and Coates' is 114. Coates 0.6 tries per game is not far off JACs 0.8, so I don't actually see enough upside there despite the "Melbourne factor".

    Cheap? Yes. For a reason? Also yes.

    Disclaimer: Coates still may feature in my side, but it will almost certainly be in my emergencies as cover and hoping for an early, money-making, sun-run.
    FaringdonSwirl
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:07 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    I don't have the stats, but as I've said before it's common sense that kicking metres will go down with the new six again rules. Won't be able to know how much by until a couple of months into the season.

    Scenario One: Player held down on 10m line coming out of own end. Six again. Team makes it to the 40m line and half puts in a 50m kick.

    Scenario Two: Player held down on 10m line coming out of own end. Penalty. Kick to touch to near halfway. Team makes it into opposition 20 and half puts in 10m attacking kick.

    Not disagreeing with this at all, but does it bug anyone else that when they're kicking for touch on a penalty, half the time they only get 20-30 metres? 50+ seems pretty common in union.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:16 am

    FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    Not disagreeing with this at all, but does it bug anyone else that when they're kicking for touch on a penalty, half the time they only get 20-30 metres? 50+ seems pretty common in union.

    I think they are generally happy to sacrifice a few metres to make sure its well over the sideline.
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:22 am

    Warning: Spencer Leniu narrative creation below:

    - The last 3 years have seen Leniu's minutes increase from 17, to 23, to 25. It wouldn't be absurd to assume his minutes could push to 30 on that trend alone.
    - To support the above trend, Leniu is another year older, with another preseason under his belt, and more finals experience. He will be a better player, fitter, and more capable of taking more responsibility (minutes) within each game.

    Panthers forward pack minutes analysis:
    - Api averaged 75 mins in 2020, but only 65 in 2021. Given he's moving to the Tigers (I think?) next year, I can see the 2021 average minutes remain, and potentially even drop, as they give Mitch Kenny more game time. This doesn't directly impact Leniu's minutes, however it means that Mitch Kenny is likely on the bench to take only 15-20 mins off Api, and also cover the backline should injuries occur. I am using this point to "remove" Kenny from my forward-pack minutes analysis.
    - Yeo has consistently spent 65ish minutes on the park (+- 3 mins) for the last 3 years, unlikely to change. [65]
    - JFH has had drastically reduced minutes in the last 3 years (76, 57, 52). As he ages, this trend could continue and I estimate the fish will average around 50 minutes a game in 2022. [50]
    - Leota has increased his minutes since 2019 from 31, to 33, to 38. I suspect this will continue to increase, and he will increase by 5 minutes a game. [43]
    - Kurt Capewell has departed, and Liam Martin will be taking his place on the right edge. Based on the available statistics, both Capewell and Martin have averaged around 68 minutes on that right edge when starting, and I don't think that will change this year. Kikau averaged 69 mins in 2020, and only 60 minutes in 2021 as they used him for a second stint impact player. I suspect the 2021 minutes will remain the same. [68 + 60 = 128]


    Given this analysis, of the 400 minutes available at Prop/Lock/Edge, 286 [65 + 50 + 43 + 128] minutes are accounted for from the starting players. This leaves 114 minutes for Eisenhuth, Sorensen, and Leniu.

    - In 2021 Eisenhuth averaged [33] minutes off the interchange.
    - In 2021 Sorensen averaged [38] minutes off the interchange.

    Subtract these two averaged from 114 and you're left with 43 minutes for Spencer Leniu.

    Now I'm not suggesting that this will all go to plan, as these are only this author's predictions. Perhaps Mitch Kenny will also take some of Yeo's Lock minutes. Perhaps Leniu will fall out of favour. Perhaps JFH will go back to playing huge minutes in the middle. Perhaps Eisenhuth or Sorensen will really impress and gain more minutes themselves. There are of course too many options to explore them all.

    However what we can say for sure is that the minutes are there for Leniu to take, and with his PPM of 1 (rounded down to assumed more minutes), I can easily see 10 points of upside if he's given at least 35 minutes (8 less than those on offer).

    Thank you for listening to my TED talk.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:22 am

    Just out of curiosity, but who is the most important player to have out of David Fifita and Tedesco? Cleary and Turbo are obviously the top 2 but I guess these guys are 3rd and 4th.


    Last edited by The Pascoe Fiasco on Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:27 am; edited 1 time in total

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