NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

mattnz wrote:Everyone may want to keep $80k to switch their $350k center that shit the bed in round 1 to upgrade to the $350k one that you should have selected that scored 80.

This is the plan.

Rather than have so many CTRs that you have to play Aitken on the edge, just take a punt on 1 or 2 of Pereira/Penisini/Berry/whoever that you think will do well, and be prepared to swap.
Its likely that most of the cheap CTRS people are talking about will not do that well, but at least one of them will perform above expectations

Then hope that the guy you swapped out doesn't do an Averillo of 2021 and go on a massive scoring run

my tv broke wrote:Tesi Niu hamstring at training today, likely 5-6 weeks out. It sounds like Mead may be the stop gap

Doesn't say much for their faith in Isaako if it is Mead.

If it was either Cobbo or Periera I would be in.

mattnz wrote:

Crichton is a known quantity. Is around $80k-100k undervalued, needs to play center every week, instead of being moved to wing and fullback and score lots of tries at center to get that value.

He is very unlikely to be the guy that is going to be the undervalued 45+ average center this season. The guys that I am selecting have a chance to be that, with significantly more upside potential.

Crichton has far better job security than Penisini and Paulo, is a much more developed footballer than either of them and will be playing centre on Penrith's strike side (which, for the most part, he didn't last season).

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Please don't make Crichton your 2022 Brailey. Just take the 150k on offer and be done with it

Especially when you have Tago at CTR. Or worse picked as a starting EDG. Unproven at CTR and did not necessarily score that well even when playing at EDG. It will be so easy to bring him in if and when he makes the switch

Milchcow wrote:

This is the plan.

Rather than have so many CTRs that you have to play Aitken on the edge, just take a punt on 1 or 2 of Pereira/Penisini/Berry/whoever that you think will do well, and be prepared to swap.
Its likely that most of the cheap CTRS people are talking about will not do that well, but at least one of them will perform above expectations

Then hope that the guy you swapped out doesn't do an Averillo of 2021 and go on a massive scoring run

Bird was that last season as well. 13 in round 1. Fortunately I kept him, had a low of 29 after that.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Crichton has far better job security than Penisini and Paulo, is a much more developed footballer than either of them and will be playing centre on Penrith's strike side (which, for the most part, he didn't last season).

Crichton is the new Mr Fix It in the Panthers backline. I think your confidence in him playing left center every week, where he played less than half his games last season is misplaced. He is the most versatile player in the Panthers backline, able to fill in anywhere.

mattnz wrote:

Crichton is the new Mr Fix It in the Panthers backline. I think your confidence in him playing left center every week, where he played less than half his games last season is misplaced. He is the most versatile player in the Panthers backline, able to fill in anywhere.

I don't know what evidence you have of Crichton being "Mr Fix-it" this year as opposed to May.

He didn't play left centre last year because Burton could only play left centre and was playing well enough to demand he was in the 13. Burton isn't there any more, and their new centre is a right-sided player.

He might fill in at fullback at points if Edwards gets injured. He wasn't very good at fb last year but there's still scoring upside for him there if he's more familiar with the role.

I just noticed Bailey Simonsson is at the Eels.. is he not a realistic shot at the wing spot that everyone assumes Dunster is taking ?

my tv broke wrote:I just noticed Bailey Simonsson is at the Eels.. is he not a realistic shot at the wing spot that everyone assumes Dunster is taking ?

I think sivo is injured so I assume they’re just expecting dunster to make his cash before sivo is back? I’m not sure, I’m not going near him

mintotheimmortal wrote:

I think sivo is injured so I assume they’re just expecting dunster to make his cash before sivo is back? I’m not sure, I’m not going near him

I have subsequently discovered that Sivo is out til mid season

rhinoceroo wrote:

I don't know what evidence you have of Crichton being "Mr Fix-it" this year as opposed to May.

He didn't play left centre last year because Burton could only play left centre and was playing well enough to demand he was in the 13. Burton isn't there any more, and their new centre is a right-sided player.

He might fill in at fullback at points if Edwards gets injured. He wasn't very good at fb last year but there's still scoring upside for him there if he's more familiar with the role.

May played on the left side in his NRL debut last season and looking through his highlights played on both sides last season at both center and wing.

Interestingly, Tago does look to be a specialist left side player. All his highlights in NSW Cup are at left center and left edge.

mattnz wrote:Everyone may want to keep $80k to switch their $350k center that shit the bed in round 1 to upgrade to the $350k one that you should have selected that scored 80.

Won’t worry me if Penisini shits the bed round 1 I’m confident in picking him at centre that he will make solid cash and he has not left my team in my drafts.

The thing I have to do is avoid this years Jacob Host of last year round 1 (yes I had Host)

And I wanna avoid Cini 2.0 what a bloody waste of 2 trades that was. I’ll be avoiding Kei I think he’s a Cini 2.0. Anyway James Roberts could be top 30 soon he’s been training again with the top squad.

my tv broke wrote:Tesi Niu hamstring at training today, likely 5-6 weeks out. It sounds like Mead may be the stop gap

You blokes should be putting Cobbo at FB. Souths fans hearing it’ll be Mead or Isaako is music to our ears....

Rabbits21 wrote:
You blokes should be putting Cobbo at FB. Souths fans hearing it’ll be Mead or Isaako is music to our ears....

Well its not like Dobbo is the most reliable reporter going around

mattnz wrote:

May played on the left side in his NRL debut last season and looking through his highlights played on both sides last season at both center and wing.

Interestingly, Tago does look to be a specialist left side player. All his highlights in NSW Cup are at left center and left edge.

Ok, fair enough but nevertheless, I'll take the guy with first team security who's priced at 27 who I'm pretty sure will go 35+ over the new toy that will magic his way into being a 45+ player

Nobody is looking at the 350k centres as keepers, they're cash generators. Final 17 centres will most likely be Burton plus one of the guns (Manu, Staggs, Lomax) who aren't value to start the season.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Crichton has far better job security than Penisini and Paulo, is a much more developed footballer than either of them and will be playing centre on Penrith's strike side (which, for the most part, he didn't last season).

I have Crichton and Penisini. I’m really confident in my Penisini pick. Re Paulo Souths do not have that many options and apparently centre was his spot growing up and in lower grades. His body will be stronger too as he’s maturing.

Will get a good look at Paulo in this weeks trial and the CS too.

This is pretty crazy just saw team lists for Titans and I went to school with the 12 for Titans Jacob Alick, super nice guy crazy to see him getting a start with so many nrl players even if it’s just a trial

Rabbits21 wrote:
Won’t worry me if Penisini shits the bed round 1 I’m confident in picking him at centre that he will make solid cash and he has not left my team in my drafts.

The thing I have to do is avoid this years Jacob Host of last year round 1 (yes I had Host)

And I wanna avoid Cini 2.0 what a bloody waste of 2 trades that was. I’ll be avoiding Kei I think he’s a Cini 2.0. Anyway James Roberts could be top 30 soon he’s been training again with the top squad.

If it is Roberts you should avoid him too. If there is a $220k player starting round 1, without an immediate return of their replacement in the following rounds, they will make most sides.

mattnz wrote:

Crichton is the new Mr Fix It in the Panthers backline. I think your confidence in him playing left center every week, where he played less than half his games last season is misplaced. He is the most versatile player in the Panthers backline, able to fill in anywhere.

S. Crichton will be a big go to in their attack mate absolutely he will play left centre and Tago right centre. Crichton avg 37 at centre the last 2 years it’s already 9 points of value and with it likely they’ll be going to him more he could avg 38-39. They aren’t gonna go with 2 rookie centres mate. Word I’m hearing is that wing spot outside Crichton is between Taylan May and Staines with Taylan currently winning the race.

As MS said it’s a safe bet he makes at worst 130k take that and be happy mate lock it in no brainer safe pick. He was in top 5 for one of my first players picked in my squad.

Re TPJ that’s why I want him so much too is look at his ownership if I don’t have him and he kills it with new offload scoring I’ll already be behind.

A good game to re-watch to see if guys pass the eye test is rd 25 Broncos vs Knights. Both Randall and Josh King start and Bullemor starts for Brisbane.
Klemmer gets injured so King has to play 50 mins. I was impressed by his motor. He was taking multiple hitups in a set and ran for about 200m.
Not saying he'll play 50 mins for Melbourne but good to see he can handle the extra mins