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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:08 pm


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    Last edited by Milchcow on Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:24 am; edited 1 time in total
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:10 pm

    First Kent’s  NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average 1f600
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:12 pm

    @Chewie thing that concerns never Coates is his base stats look yuck, even when Vunivalu was at the Storm Beth was saying to me early today even with him scoring lots of tries he wasn’t fantasy relevant due to not having a good base.
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:12 pm

    I don't really get the Pereira love.

    He relies on TBs for most of his big scores. Once you account for the point reduction his price doesn't look especially tempting. You'd have to hope for an increase in tries to get him up to useful territory.

    There's a bunch more guys around the same price I'd be happy to own before Pereira
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:15 pm

    Milchcow wrote:I don't really get the Pereira love.

    He relies on TBs for most of his big scores. Once you account for the point reduction his price doesn't look especially tempting. You'd have to hope for an increase in tries to get him up to useful territory.

    There's a bunch more guys around the same price I'd be happy to own before Pereira

    I know what was tempting me was playing on that right edge outside Reynolds Riki and staggs would give him plenty of opportunity, along with the fact tesi and cobbo aren’t the biggest metre eaters so you’d think he will be the primary set starter for the broncs, have just replaced him with paulo in my team for now tho who at the same price would have more upside on that south’s left edge
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:18 pm

    @moanaman Old enough to remember Olsen Filipiana absolutely owning "King" Wally in tests in the 80s. RIP.
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:20 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:@Chewie thing that concerns never Coates is his base stats look yuck, even when Vunivalu was at the Storm Beth was saying to me early today even with him scoring lots of tries he wasn’t fantasy relevant due to not having a good base.

    He wasn't fantasy relevant but he was worth a lot more than 330k. If Coates can hit Jennings' average never mind JAC's then he makes 120k+
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:26 pm

    Milchcow wrote:I don't really get the Pereira love.

    He relies on TBs for most of his big scores. Once you account for the point reduction his price doesn't look especially tempting. You'd have to hope for an increase in tries to get him up to useful territory.

    There's a bunch more guys around the same price I'd be happy to own before Pereira
    He does seem to have the best base stats though compared to Coates, Dunster etc....
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    Post by Khany Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm

    1st
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:30 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:@Chewie thing that concerns never Coates is his base stats look yuck, even when Vunivalu was at the Storm Beth was saying to me early today even with him scoring lots of tries he wasn’t fantasy relevant due to not having a good base.
    rhinoceroo wrote:
    He wasn't fantasy relevant but he was worth a lot more than 330k. If Coates can hit Jennings' average never mind JAC's then he makes 120k+

    Exactly. Fantasy relevance is a relationship between scores and price. Pretty much anyone can be fantasy relevant if they are cheap enough. I am not 100% sold on Coates, but I do thin he is a better option than Pereira

    BTW, Vunivalu was certainly fantasy relevant in his first year at the storm, where he made the $150k you want from a trade. Started at $130k and peaked at $290k. Hit 7 consecutive weeks over $280k to time the cash out.
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:40 pm

    Agree on pereria. Would rather pick coates

    At least coates will be in the storm side every week. Who knows with periera
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:47 pm

    Milchcow wrote:


    Exactly. Fantasy relevance is a relationship between scores and price. Pretty much anyone can be fantasy relevant if they are cheap enough. I am not 100% sold on Coates, but I do thin he is a better option than Pereira

    BTW, Vunivalu was certainly fantasy relevant in his first year at the storm, where he made the $150k you want from a trade. Started at $130k and peaked at $290k. Hit 7 consecutive weeks over $280k to time the cash out.

    Periera is much more consistent than Coates over their careers, both in poor performing teams.

    Periera has 3 scores < 25
    Coates has 6 scores < 11 even with less total games. (Periera has 0 full games scoring that low).

    Periera average is 35 despite 0.3 tries per game
    Coates average is only 26 even with 0.5 tries per game.

    Even in a worse team, Periera should outscore Coates.


    Last edited by mattnz on Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:52 pm

    Does a projection of about 58 sound right for TPJ?
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:55 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Periera is much more consistent than Coates over their careers, both in poor performing teams.

    Periera has 3 scores < 25
    Coates has 6 scores < 11 even with less total games

    Periera average is 35 despite 0.3 tries per game
    Coates average is only 26 even with 0.5 tries per game.

    Even in a worse team, Periera should outscore Coates.

    Is that taking into account the less points for TBs for JP mate? Coates should increase that try rate

    Are they cheap enough to start with both?
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    Post by Teeth Eater Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:55 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Periera is much more consistent than Coates over their careers, both in poor performing teams.

    Periera has 3 scores < 25
    Coates has 6 scores < 11 even with less total games

    Periera average is 35 despite 0.3 tries per game
    Coates average is only 26 even with 0.5 tries per game.

    Even in a worse team, Periera should outscore Coates.

    As a player, I tend to like Periera, and think that if he gets a fair crack he could be a nice pick up. Like MTB says above, for me the main issue would be his job security.

    If he's playing week in week out, I'd be happy to take a punt of him as I think he's a good player that could deliver the goods if given a platform.
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:02 pm

    Not a lot of games in 2021. but in 2020, once you account for 2 point TBs, Perira scored under 27 (his 2022 priced average) in 8 of 15 games.

    He barely ever cracks 40 points.

    In a season with plenty of cheap WFB/CTR options looking viable I just don't see how he is going to make enough cash to be worthwhile.
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    Post by Teeth Eater Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:07 pm

    Milchcow wrote:Not a lot of games in 2021. but in 2020, once you account for 2 point TBs, Perira scored under 27 (his 2022 priced average) in 8 of 15 games.

    He barely ever cracks 40 points.

    In a season with plenty of cheap WFB/CTR options looking viable I just don't see how he is going to make enough cash to be worthwhile.

    To be honest, I don't have either him or Coates in my team, as it is... I just think he's a good player, lol.

    I actually agree that at 327K he's probably not great value. Obviously around 240K I'd be all over him, but probably not in my calculations at that price either, to be fair.
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:10 pm

    Teeth Eater wrote:

    As a player, I tend to like Periera, and think that if he gets a fair crack he could be a nice pick up. Like MTB says above, for me the main issue would be his job security.

    If he's playing week in week out, I'd be happy to take a punt of him as I think he's a good player that could deliver the goods if given a platform.

    I don't have either in my team, but Periera has been in it at times. Have opted for Paulo, Berry and Dunster as my cheaper WFBs.

    If you need a player in your 17, Periera is giving you a really high chance of giving a decent 30+ score. Coates is going to get less than 30 most of the time and sometimes have a <10 game that makes him unplayable. If you want a cash cow in your emergencies you are better off going $32k cheaper for Dunster and still gain as much cash.
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:17 pm

    Coates has the biggest upside though, im just talking potential on the footy field. If its his year then he will have a fair few 70+ scores. All you need is a few of them early on.

    Wouldnt want to have to rely on him in my 17 but the way people are talking it seems like youll need one cheap wfb on the park
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:21 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Coates has the biggest upside though, im just talking potential on the footy field. If its his year then he will have a fair few 70+ scores. All you need is a few of them early on.

    Wouldnt want to have to rely on him in my 17 but the way people are talking it seems like youll need one cheap wfb on the park

    Yeah I am looking to play Paulo in my 17. Should be much safer than either at a similar price point and will get dual, if he starts at left center round 1 as expected.

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