NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Broncos fans on here, how likely do you think it is that Ryan James gets 40 or more mins a game?


I just had a look at his stats last year (excluded games under 30 mins), and it seems like if he does get 40 mins a game, he'll be value.

* 3 games between 30 and 39 mins, with scores of 35(34), 31(30) and 36(31), for an average of 34 at 1.07PPM

* 5 games between 40 and 50 mins, with scores of 47(41), 61(40), 49(42), 33(47) and 59(43), for an average of 49.8 at 1.18PPM

The combined 8 game sample has him averaging 43.8 at 1.14PPM, and he's priced at 34.

Problem is you have two middles in Carrigan and Haas who have massive motors and can easily play 80 min (and have done so in the past). Also tricky in the sense that the second presumed starting prop (Flegler) is out for the first three weeks so there is every likelihood that James gets increased usage and minutes in the first three rounds, just enough to entice everyone before he becomes a 20-30min bench player again.

On a personal note, I would love to see him go well as he has been a great stalwart of the game and a relatively undervalued player over his career.

Bethany_B wrote:Broncos fans on here, how likely do you think it is that Ryan James gets 40 or more mins a game?


I just had a look at his stats last year (excluded games under 30 mins), and it seems like if he does get 40 mins a game, he'll be value.

* 3 games between 30 and 39 mins, with scores of 35(34), 31(30) and 36(31), for an average of 34 at 1.07PPM

* 5 games between 40 and 50 mins, with scores of 47(41), 61(40), 49(42), 33(47) and 59(43), for an average of 49.8 at 1.18PPM

The combined 8 game sample has him averaging 43.8 at 1.14PPM, and he's priced at 34.

Those that are keen on Tapine I just read he's unvaxxed currently so he can't play in Q/land or Victoria...still plenty of time to rectify though & you'd imagine with Ricky as coach he's drag him by the ear if he had to to get vaxxed.

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:Problem is you have two middles in Carrigan and Haas who have massive motors and can easily play 80 min (and have done so in the past). Also tricky in the sense that the second presumed starting prop (Flegler) is out for the first three weeks so there is every likelihood that James gets increased usage and minutes in the first three rounds, just enough to entice everyone before he becomes a 20-30min bench player again.

On a personal note, I would love to see him go well as he has been a great stalwart of the game and a relatively undervalued player over his career.

I think Haas and Carrigan will play 60-65 mins each, and James/Fleg would get 35-45 each.

If anything, it's between James and Kobe for a good cheapie, either Carrigan starts at lock (meaning James likely starts at prop since Flegler is an impact player) or he starts at prop (in which case Kobe starts at lock and is a buy there).

I would prefer Carrigan starts at prop since Kobe is cheaper and has HOK dual.

Is J King from Storm not a thing anymore with NAS playing now? That makes things tricky getting 4 mids.

Carrigan will wear the 13, you can lock that in.

James is a trap imo. Flegler is going to have a good year (gut feel). The club loves hetherington. Its just too easy to spread the mins there

my tv broke wrote:Carrigan will wear the 13, you can lock that in.

James is a trap imo. Flegler is going to have a good year (gut feel). The club loves hetherington. Its just too easy to spread the mins there

You reckon Kobe could be a trap?

Lemmy KGB wrote:Is J King from Storm not a thing anymore with NAS playing now? That makes things tricky getting 4 mids.

Most likely not, though he could very well still get 35 mins, and may even start at lock if Bellyache decides to put NAS on the bench as an impact player.

I'm hesitant to pick him with all the suspensions as we won't know his real role, though if he can get 35 mins a game, he will be value, as he gets roughly 1PPM and is priced at 26.

if Mann gets dual before Rd1, then I won't bother with him as I will then have 4 mids without him.

Rabbits21 wrote:
You reckon Kobe could be a trap?

I wouldnt be picking him. Hes just not a fantasy relevant guy

my tv broke wrote:

I wouldnt be picking him. Hes just not a fantasy relevant guy

If he starts at lock (with Carrigan prop), then I think he'll be a decent pick given the lack of good MID cheapies, though he'd be a slow burn.

If Carrigan is at lock, then James becomes a good buy as he has much better PPM (average of 1.14 in 30+ minute games last year compared to 0.77 for Kobe)

Neither are good buys i will put money on this

my tv broke wrote:Neither are good buys i will put money on this

Neither of them are particularly good but there's not that many guys there.

That said, King may be better than both of them given he's cheaper (priced at 26) and only really needs 35 mins to be value (he gets roughly 1PPM), which I think he'll get even with NAS there.

IF Davey starts and Tapine can get the minutes, I can field a team I am completely happy with. Closest i’ve come yet.

my tv broke wrote:Neither are good buys i will put money on this

Agree.

The only way I can see James being an option is if Kevie has decided he needs and old head out there to guide the forwards in crunch times of the match on a more regular basis. Real young pack and we have seen over the last couple of years they lack guidance and game management on a  consistent basis. Old heads like Reynolds and James, especially with the retirement of Alex Glen, will be vital this season (how that translates to fantasy points I don't know). Can't think of another regular team starter or bench player that has more 100 game to their name.

Lemmy KGB wrote:Is J King from Storm not a thing anymore with NAS playing now? That makes things tricky getting 4 mids.

How keen are you to get this year's Leniu?

Kevvy won't have Croft to fall back on either