NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I don't know what you are seeing but when I look at Aitken stats in the second row I see a regular base of 50 points in base stats

I think the difference is that Burton wont end up pushed to the backline to cover injuries and net you 12, 18, and 24 for three games

Moanaman wrote:

I think the difference is that Burton wont end up pushed to  the backline to cover injuries and net you 12, 18, and 24 for three games

I'll probably start with both Burton and Aitken.

Insert "why not both?" GiF

Tigers extend Stefano Utoikamanu through to 2025.
Starting to look forward to 2023 to build on our 2022 finals experience

easytiger wrote:Tigers extend Stefano Utoikamanu through to 2025.
Starting to look forward to 2023 to build on our 2022 finals experience

Oh shit I didn't hear that they actually signed a Perth team for 2023 in order to increase the finals to top 10. Thats great to hear.

easytiger wrote:Tigers extend Stefano Utoikamanu through to 2025.
Starting to look forward to 2023 to build on our 2022 finals experience

Tigers are actually making good moves though. There's definite potential for a finals team built around Stef, Doueihi, Laurie, Blore, etc. Hastings and Peachey are smart signings and they've got some big guns coming in for 2023 so Sheens is clearly doing something right since coming into the role. I really hope they make finals just so Madge gets some reward because he got such a shit go with the team he got handed

Snatchpato wrote:
Oh shit I didn't hear that they actually signed a Perth team for 2023 in order to increase the finals to top 10. Thats great to hear.

Even with 18 teams the finals should be top 8 otherwise it is too easy to make in my opinion. Teams will be making it with 40-45% win records and it takes away from the toughness of making the finals

Just like reduced km points, missed tackles are priced in for SJ already. Not necessarily a reason to avoid him.

I more more concerned about his body holding up than any specific scoring category.
At his peak he averaged a line break every 2 games. Last year he got 1 all season. Just doesn't run the ball as much and gets less of the big scoring plays that used to give him his monster scores.

FalconSloth wrote:
Even with 18 teams the finals should be top 8 otherwise it is too easy to make in my opinion. Teams will be making it with 40-45% win records and it takes away from the toughness of making the finals

Yeah you're right.

Oh well maybe in 2028 the Grafton Ghosts will sign local boy Anthony Don and join the NRL as the 24th team and then the Tigers might sneak into the top 13.

Who will be goal kicking at warriors?

Both Nikorima and Johnson strike at around 75% but if nikorima is only playing stints at hooker wether that is starting or off the bench they might opt for Johnson to kick as he will be playing 80. Could add an extra 6 points to his average

Snatchpato wrote:
Oh shit I didn't hear that they actually signed a Perth team for 2023 in order to increase the finals to top 10. Thats great to hear.

I'm just impressed that you see them as a top ten team even in that scenario.
Suggests they might be you "second" team - all are welcome.

FalconSloth wrote:Both Nikorima and Johnson strike at around 75% but if nikorima is only playing stints at hooker wether that is starting or off the bench they might opt for Johnson to kick as he will be playing 80. Could add an extra 6 points to his average

Probably Walsh keeps GK

Camo123 wrote:

Probably Walsh keeps GK

I forgot he goal kicked

mattnz wrote:

All gun halves have lost 1/3rd of their kicking meter points. It is a pretty level playing field.

For starters, not every half generates their points the same way. SJ got about 42% of his points last year in games over 70min from kick metres. Jahrome Hughes got about 21% of his points from kicking metres. Not really level playing field, the nerf affects everyone differently.

Further, Cleary got nerfed 10 points to 84 - he's still a gun. DCE got nerfed 8 points to 63 - he's still a gun. SJ was nerfed 6.7 points to 41.5 - Is he still a gun? I'm not so sure. He would have to improve a LOT on last year performance to come close. Could he? maybe. The early draw as you say, ? halves partner, ? more goal kicking, ? less injury games. No slam dunk. Also depends on what points average you consider to be a gun.

Furthermore, if you want Cleary and DCE ultimately as your halves, SJ isn't up against against other halves for your halves spot, he's up against forwards for his place on your interchange bench. Over the last couple of years you've been able to load up on halves that dominate the kicking knowing that they can average as well as anyone else. Pretty sure I had Moses, Fogarty, and SJ on my bench at one stage last year. This year you might prefer say, a Tyson Frizell averaging 56 than those halves struggling to hit 50.

It's way more complicated than just saying they are all in the same boat.

Regulator wrote:

His miss tackles just get frustrating AF as an owner.

They aren't even bad miss tackles, you'll see him make two tackles in a row and be like good man Welch, then he'll throw an arm out trying to make three in a row that he's never going to reach and undoes the points.

This. It was very annoying. Still, I see some value there again this year...

FalconSloth wrote:Both Nikorima and Johnson strike at around 75% but if nikorima is only playing stints at hooker wether that is starting or off the bench they might opt for Johnson to kick as he will be playing 80. Could add an extra 6 points to his average

Camo123 wrote:

Probably Walsh keeps GK

Even if SJ was GK over Walsh, he's already got 3.6 points priced in, would only add another 3 points or so rather than 6.

I'm surprised there isn't much chat about Hynes. If he's playing 7 alongside Moylan he should be in for some good KM, nerf notwithstanding. Townsend and SJ dominated the KM playing with Moylan. I suppose one issue is players like Trindall and Tracey vying for the 6 jersey.

precursor wrote:I'm surprised there isn't much chat about Hynes. If he's playing 7 alongside Moylan he should be in for some good KM, nerf notwithstanding. Townsend and SJ dominated the KM playing with Moylan. I suppose one issue is players like Trindall and Tracey vying for the 6 jersey.

There's a lot to like there I think. He's priced like Sexton around 48 and I think in the right circumstances he could average low to mid 50's, like Sexton, bringing him into keeper territory. I'm looking forward to trials to see how it unfolds. With Sexton there's some reasonable job security and certainty of halves partner and GK, but uncertainty with his limited sample size. With Hynes there is a larger sample size, but in a different position, question marks over halves partner, GK status, new team etc. You could probably extrapolate some halves base stats averages to help, but I haven't delved too far yet. Trials normally help here as opposed to forward's minutes where it's murkier.

L-Jimmy wrote:Huh. Looking at border restrictions, the NRL decision not to expand to Perth seems like a pretty good call. Super Rugby is having a major re-jig of schedules - more stress on top of vaxx hesitancy in Pasifika communities.

Not sure I can complement PVL or whomever on this basis, but it was still a good call.

PVL for PM

Okay first chop at it.

Randall
TPJ Uto James
Aitken Nanai
Cleary Sexton
Burton Tago
Pappy Suaali Coates

Clark, Gilbert, Blore, Ilias

Crichton, 240x3.

Feels a bit mid rangey. I could see Sexton and Aitken becoming Hastings and someone.