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multiple.scoregasms wrote:This ended up being over 2000 words so I'll chuck it behind a spoiler tag
- Spoiler:
There has been a bit of talk on season long planning I thought I would give more details on how I do it. Broken down into a few different stages
Preseason
Arguably the most important part to the season. If you get things majorly wrong here you are finish and will be chasing your tail here. The most important things to consider here for me
- Eye test is the most important factor. If you are shit at rugby league you won't make my team pure and simple.
- Make sure you have atleast 2 captain options. You do not want to be copping sub par scores if your captain cops a 1 week injury
- Take the players that are the biggest value and guaranteed money makers regardless of position. This year that was your Watson/Brailey/Riki/Liddle/Laurie types. If fit, Turbo would have been in this category
- Points are important but you still want value. Here I would try to fill out with your under valued guns. This is where you want Matt's patented sub guns, that can make the jump to next tier of keeper. Generally you can only fit a few of these before cash runs out. I went with Munster and Moses, some went with Papy and Fifita
- Centres pick 2 cheap guys with job security and (hopefully) fantasy pedigree. Even the guns can put up single figure scores so I will never consider a gun centre in my starting team unless they are a starting second rower.
- WFB I try to go with 1 gun, 1 mid, 1 cow. Even the best of the best have a down week in this position and you can pick them up cheap. I never know who my 3 final WFBS will be until players start losing cash. Mid should be someone that has shown upside to go to the next level like Papy 2019 or Edwards 2018. Sometimes they stick and sometimes they don't. You don't want to be chasing your tail having 2 guys under 300k that you need to play while copping 20s
- Halves I like to take any rookies that are starting. Typically they are guaranteed 80 minutes, get a bit of kicking, bit of tackling and few attacking stats. Should be good for 30-40s making them very playable in your 17. For the guns I don't want other people to be able to bring them in, so I tend to go for high floor guys with good kick metre stats and good defensive stats. Goal kicking is a bonus used as a tie breaker. I tend to avoid running halves because they can be up and down which makes them likely cheaper later. Nothing worse than watching your gun drop 150k due to shit scores and everyone jump on board. I'll typically want one gun and one rookie in the halves so you aren't stuck with 2 guys getting 20s-30s if they don't pan out.
- Hooker has to have some sort of job security and I prefer to not pick someone that has a utility on the bench. 80 minute hookers are fantasy gold with even the shittest ones averaging in the high 30s. Will normally start with someone that has upside to turn into keeper based on previous starts/injury/form.
- Mids primarily score in the form of base stats, which are heavily tied to minutes. I’ll generally target 2-3 mid range guys I expect to get extra minutes. Starting on the bench makes sure you will not be in my team. The only exception to this rule would have been Watson this year due to how cheap he was combined with fantasy pedigree.
- Edge is one of the best place to make cash if there are cows. This year we lost most of the base price guys, but Milchy’s rule applies here with starters playing big minutes and mostly having a floor in the 30s. Great if you can grab a rookie price guy, or even under 300k.
- Bench is pretty much filled in with left over cash after the starters. Will try to prioritise rookie/value halves and hookers due to cash generation while not lacking in points. If there are no value halves/hookers I’ll try to grab the edge players for a playable floor and try scoring upside. Worst case scenario I’ll go to starting middles. I’d rather shit in my hands and clap then play a centre, winger or fullback here.
- Emergency I want to get atleast one DPP CTR/WFB, cheapest possible with upside here. 18th man I want to be playable in case of injuries/suspension so prefer one of the hookers/halves/edge/middle guys. Last 2 spots are filled with 2 cheapest guys I think will make cash. This year that was Simonsson and Reimis Smith, but probably should have gone with an extra MID for squad balance
- Cash left over is never more than 150k, but never less than 30k. Chances are you will need to pivot out of one of these options and will want a bit left over
Rounds 1-5
Before kick off every player in your team should have an expected role in their team. Maybe you think MID3 will pick up an extra 15 minutes due to someone retiring/leaving the club. Maybe you expect a senior half to take an increase in kicking. Maybe you expect someone to add 5-10 points in goal kicking to their score. Be realistic about what you think will happen as not everyone in your squad will be 10 points under-priced. In some places you have to settle for 5-6 points with a view to trade once they have made a bit of cash and things settle.
Round 1 the most important thing to watch for is the role you expected and the role they are actually playing. The single most important round to watch every game so you know what is happening with every team. If someone isn’t playing the role you expected get ready to turf them. Be on the look out for someone that has a break out role that could make them an under priced keeper, like Yeo moving from edge to middle. Round 1 is generally played under weird conditions with higher than average temperatures, quarterly breaks and weird rotations. The only reason I will trade after round 1 is long term injury or suspension . I would rather wait an extra week, miss 20-30k in cash on someone that looks good, rather than jump the gun and end up with someone like 2021 BSironen that needs to be traded out in the next 2 weeks. You can make back the 30k with smart decisions but you can’t get that trade back. Any guys that stood out go on the watch list for post round 2 trades.
Round 2 is similar to round 1, I’m looking for roles rather than scores. Guys that I had watch listed in round 1 are under the microscope to see how sustainable the role is. Guys from my starting team that aren’t getting the role I wanted after 2 weeks are dead weight to be moved on. By this time you should know how most teams are going to play this season so you can get on the fantasy relevant players.
Round 3-5 are pretty similar that you want to grab any cows that were on the fringes in preseason but have come in after poor performances from their replacements. Unless I have seen them extensively previously at NRL level, I will always wait a week to grab these cheapies. Again I would rather miss out on a little cash instead of burning a trade on the wrong cow. The guys like Grant are easy to see and it means you miss some duds like Hammer and KOD that don’t have games for fantasy. I’ll normally try to conserve a few trades here, but if I max trade from rounds 2-5 that’s okay. If you burnt a trade on injury/suspension in round 1 I try to save one somewhere from 2-5.
Minimum trades used 4, Maximum trades used 8. Trades remaining 26-30
Rounds 6-10
Preparing for the byes it will feel like your team is going nowhere as you general hold ranks while those around you grab guns or the latest cow, this is generally the most boring part of the season. Basically sitting tight waiting for cows to mature and waiting for any guns with low scores to bottom out. Prioritise round 13 gun, but if you get a round 17 keeper on a silver platter you want to take them. This period is mostly about conserving trades with your set team. You should have a watch list built of players that are under priced with a potential increased role over origin, or origin keepers that you will target.
Minimum trades used 2, maximum trades used 5. Trades remaining 21-28
Rounds 10-13
Get ready to burn those trades cause this is the most important part of the regular season. Every trade you make from 10-13 should play the first bye rounds. Start with those locked in to not play origin like your Islanders, Kiwis and English. The last thing you want is to bring in a player who gets selected for origin out of no where(Chris McQueen cost me 1st overall because of this). Trade break down looks like this ideally – Round 10 2 trades on round 13 cows to start building the bank, round 11 2 trades, 1 on cow one on gun, round 12 2 trades 1 on cow one on gun. By round 12 you should be sitting pretty with 10-13 players for round 13. Round 13 use all 4 trades on 3 guns and 1 cash out with upside. Make sure that you have every single captaincy option this week or 1 wrong decision can ruin all your planning. With the cash out I aim for a guy that has a chance at more than 1 game. This would be a guy like Penisini, Suaali, Hopgood with talent to get an extended run with a good showing. Should have 12 guns and 2-4 cash outs depending on how things shape up. Don’t go over board trying to get 17 as someone like McCullough might outscore 4 centres. If you get this week right you can put 400-600 points on under prepared teams.
Minimum trades used 10, maximum trades used 10. Trades remaining 11-18
Rounds 13-17
By this part of the season most are running low on trades so decide to not worry about the second bye. This is the one I target the most as it’s the last real chance to storm home. If I have managed to saves all my trades and have 18 remaining I’ll be open to sideways trading guns. If I have the lower end with 11 remaining I’ll try to keep the guns. Most important thing is to make a list of the captaincy options for round 17 and get all these guys in. Once again these are the guys that will make or break your bye round, do whatever it takes to get them in. Round 13,14,15,16 will be max trade trying to go with cows and guns where needed. Round 17 if you are going to sideways trade guns this is the time to do it with 4 trades. Trading a round 13 guy to a round 17 guy with the same average could net you an extra 60 points, which makes all the difference at the end of the year. If things have gone poorly for you at the start of the year you will be using your last trade in this round then hanging on for dear life
Minimum trades used 11, maximum trades used 12. Trades remaining 0-6.
Round 18-26
Hopefully things have gone well for you and you are sitting pretty after a storming up the ladder with a few trades up your sleeve. If you have none left it’s self-explanatory that you are riding with the cattle that got you here. If you have 6 left you can take a look at MTB’s ownership among top 10/100/1000 and consider a few pods for guys you want to upgrade. If you have 4 left you probably want to make 2 trades on possible upgrades and probably best going for popular guys. If you have 2 left you probably want to hold them for injuries. With teams so similar by this point it’s really hard to make up ground unless you gamble on bench/captains. Importantly, you want a good 18th man you can play in case of injury/suspension and you also want 1 red dot for looping. Positions 19 and 20 are ideally DPP with job security so they can get you 20 points if they plug in late season.
From here you are holding on for dear life and hoping the dice rolls yours way
Great stuff MS.
Post of the year.
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Welshy
