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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:15 pm

    White Lightning wrote:I'm actually thinking of selling Angus purely as a tactical move...while most owners will bench him & play a 20-30 point substitute I could sell Angus to a 50+ gun & re-buy him the following round/rounds. Not sure I'll do it but am thinking about it due to the lack of cash/cows.

    I've done this and not looking back. Ride with me WL
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:17 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:Looking more into it, Lodge + Host to Davey + Leniu makes enough sense for now.

    Host being dropped really shows how little faith Bennett has in the man after 1 game. Davey really impressed in the preseason and Gos's defense was shocking (albeit against one of the best attacks in the game). I think Davey holds the spot and has the game to hit 40's in 60 minutes of footy... Gos may even spend time in the middle.

    Lodge sitting on the bench for 2-3 weeks is not healthy for early money making. Leniu has the game to make points fast and I can see him falling over the line for a try sooner rather than later. Need players in my squad making money early on. Using Crichton to loop Niu and Averillo as well.

    I am happy to burn through double trades for the first few weeks as this is the time to jump on some early money makers/fix fires... No money makes have presented themselves this week but I have some fires to put out and Leniu/Davey are the two with their noses in front as to Job Security, Points Potential, Role going forward.

    Have the bank to go Lodge > LAM but just scared on his role going forward due to HIA.

    Changed to Lodge + Host > LAM + Leniu... LAM pretty much is a straight swap with Lodge and with a BE of 5 he should kill the cash making even with a 40 avg. Happy to wait on Davey's role going forward.
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    Post by Fortitude Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:22 pm

    Selling chricton to Tapine/Young allows me to go Croker to Siro.

    very tempting.
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    Post by wolfking Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:26 pm

    Mulvy wrote:Same as everyone else basically. No bank.

    a) Lodge and Gosi to LAM and Stefano. Given LAM would be in my starting side to replace Lodge, I think he'll score a few more points per week than Alvaro/Leniu.

    b) Lodge and Gosi to Leniu and Alvaro. Would play both this week and one goes into NPR next week with Angus back.

    c) One trade Gosi to Stefano. Would have to play him this week though. Get to hold Lodge and save a trade which is nice because all of the trade in options suck. Something better should pop up.

    Thoughts?

    B. A is close.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:31 pm

    SHIT! Didn't realise LAM's score was boosted by a try (and LB)
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:32 pm


    I know Leniu is the popular one around here, but Alvaro looks slightly more tempting to me.

    Dragons could do anything to their pack if they start losing, but i don't think he is first in line for the chop, and I think he is more likely to get to 40 than Leniu is, who'd need a consistent and significant lift in minutes.
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    Post by Iron Mike Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:34 pm

    I don't have the fires that other people have in Gos, Lodge, Host, Kelly, Aitken etc but I do have Croker and he is gone.
    I have $5k bank and can't even get Alvaro. Already have Leniu and Uto and Simonsson.

    I also only have two centres in Averillo and Roberts with Croker my only halves cover.

    I'm thinking of sacrificing RTS to Peachey to get a CTW keeper and hopefully get a leg up on others in the centre position since I'm behind the 8 ball on others.
    This is driven by the fact I want Croker gone and I see Davey as a 45 point scorer if things go well.

    RTS to Peachey
    Croker to Davey

    Thumbs up or thumbs down?

    Leaves team as:

    Turpin
    BSmith, Welch, Watson
    DFifita, Davey
    Cleary (c), Lam
    Peachey, Roberts
    Tedesco, Laurie, Hoy

    JBrailey, Liddle, Leniu, ACrichton

    Riki, Averillo, Uto, Simmonsson

    Get cover, can bench an average centre, 4th reserve improves considerably from Croker/Averillo/Uto/Simonsson to Davey.
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:36 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:SHIT! Didn't realise LAM's score was boosted by a try (and LB)

    He is still priced at under 30, and in 2019 averaged 45 playing 30-50 minutes

    (only 2 games in 2020 before injury so hard to get a read, but averaged 30.5 in those 2)

    Between Ofa, LAM, Alvaro, Leniu there are a bunch of props that might be useful, and you can make an argument for any of them. I'll be bringing one of them on for Lodge (not Ofa as he is just out of price range) and hard to pick which one. if lockout was right now I'd go Alvaro, but can easily change my mind several times over the next couple of days

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    Post by Oz Sport Mad Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:37 pm

    Revraiser wrote:

    I've done this and not looking back. Ride with me WL

    I generally only consider doing that with an injury, given there is opportunity for it being longer than expected or a low scoring return.

    This is a determinate amount of time (only 1 week), so you are basically spending two trades for a 'potential' 20-30 points.

    Plus you have the stress of watching your 'potential' 50 pointer get through a game without getting a HIA and you have to death ride your 'potential' 20 pointer, with the mixed emotions of hoping he doesn't fall over the line (making your trade pointless) but also hoping he does at the same time (for increased cash)......
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    Post by AL Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:42 pm

    RandomSil wrote:

    What 50+ gun do you have in mind? Who is going to keep scoring at the same level as Angus? If the person you trade in scores 5 - 10 less than Angus in 3 - 4 Rounds he will have made up that difference. While there is no degree of certainty you can get him back before he exceeds the 20 to 30 points you make.

    Is 1 trade worth 20 - 30 points? Knowing that towards the end of the season their value goes up.

    Also depends what you do with the balance cash. I have Croker in my 17 and have to play Stefano for Angus. Angus and Croker could become Sitili / Elliot and Townsend / Turpin / Latrell etc. Getting rid of one gun and one probably failed cow for 2 mids with upside.
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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:43 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:SHIT! Didn't realise LAM's score was boosted by a try (and LB)

    Booze had a good post on LAM the other day https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1571p540-nrl-fantasy-2021-part-15-let-the-raging-begin#478086
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    Post by mattnz Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:43 pm

    Revraiser wrote:

    I've done this and not looking back. Ride with me WL

    I'm planning it as well. Before the try, I was shitting my pants with Captain Crichton. In earlier drafts I had Fifita as Captain, but thought Crichton was a safer option. Now feeling pretty comfortable with Fifita as Captain, looking good for solid scores most weeks and some monsters when he hits top gear.

    Looking like there are a number of cheaper EDG and MID options that could reach keeper status this season. My plan is to use the funds to target them.

    Lets me give NAS a 2nd chance to prove his worth, and get him playing this week, cash in the bank and rebalance my team, as it was light in the backs. Can pick up Too, move Cotric back into CTR where he belongs, next to Bird who gets a reprieve this week and ditch Averillo instead to get Brailey in the team.

    If Bird can start scoring as well as it looks like he could have last week, then will be really happy with my back 5 - Bird, Cotric, Pappy, Laurie, Too. I am dropping an Origin player and picking up 2 that play round 13, which will come in handy.
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:47 pm

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    I generally only consider doing that with an injury, given there is opportunity for it being longer than expected or a low scoring return.

    This is a determinate amount of time (only 1 week), so you are basically spending two trades for a 'potential' 20-30 points.

    Plus you have the stress of watching your 'potential' 50 pointer get through a game without getting a HIA and you have to death ride your 'potential' 20 pointer, with the mixed emotions of hoping he doesn't fall over the line (making your trade pointless) but also hoping he does at the same time (for increased cash)......

    Post less !!
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:49 pm


    Yeah the low BE and the high PPM is what is selling me. If he can get 40 minutes off the bench I can see him averaging 38-43 ish and making at least another 160K from here. Plus guys like Alvaro do not ooze confidence in me.
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    Post by mattnz Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:54 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Yeah the low BE and the high PPM is what is selling me. If he can get 40 minutes off the bench I can see him averaging 38-43 ish and making at least another 160K from here. Plus guys like Alvaro do not ooze confidence in me.
    Keep in mind Warriors had 2 HIAs where forwards didnt return. Both 2RFs played less than 50 minutes as a result, forcing BMM and Harris to play on the edge. Wouldnt count on those minutes every week.
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:58 pm

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    I generally only consider doing that with an injury, given there is opportunity for it being longer than expected or a low scoring return.

    This is a determinate amount of time (only 1 week), so you are basically spending two trades for a 'potential' 20-30 points.

    Plus you have the stress of watching your 'potential' 50 pointer get through a game without getting a HIA and you have to death ride your 'potential' 20 pointer, with the mixed emotions of hoping he doesn't fall over the line (making your trade pointless) but also hoping he does at the same time (for increased cash)......

    No just kidding, appreciate the feedback mate. But I'm sold, it's done and the key has been swallowed. Nothing to do with chasing 96 as everyone says, it's chasing Cleary and possibly getting Crichton down the track as opposed to Cleary later, if at all. Gets me a captain Cleary score this week as opposed to a spud score. 
    Plus I have the luxury or convenience of not having any of Gosi, Croker, Host or anyone that has to go etc.
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:01 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    I'm planning it as well. Before the try, I was shitting my pants with Captain Crichton. In earlier drafts I had Fifita as Captain, but thought Crichton was a safer option. Now feeling pretty comfortable with Fifita as Captain, looking good for solid scores most weeks and some monsters when he hits top gear.

    Looking like there are a number of cheaper EDG and MID options that could reach keeper status this season. My plan is to use the funds to target them.

    Lets me give NAS a 2nd chance to prove his worth, and get him playing this week, cash in the bank and rebalance my team, as it was light in the backs. Can pick up Too, move Cotric back into CTR where he belongs, next to Bird who gets a reprieve this week and ditch Averillo instead to get Brailey in the team.

    If Bird can start scoring as well as it looks like he could have last week, then will be really happy with my back 5 - Bird, Cotric, Pappy, Laurie, Too. I am dropping an Origin player and picking up 2 that play round 13, which will come in handy.

    Let's hope our moves have the Midas touch !
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:02 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    Keep in mind Warriors had 2 HIAs where forwards didnt return. Wouldnt count on those minutes every week

    If anything it probably affected Harris' and Jazz's more than anything.. Jazz would have given Tohu time off but with the Egan HIA Jazz was forced to fill in at hooker meaning Tohu played the 80.

    Happy to take the punt. Think 40 minutes is pretty spot on for him.
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    Post by Oz Sport Mad Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:04 pm

    Revraiser wrote:

    No just kidding, appreciate the feedback mate. But I'm sold, it's done and the key has been swallowed. Nothing to do with chasing 96 as everyone says, it's chasing Cleary and possibly getting Crichton down the track as opposed to Cleary later, if at all. Gets me a captain Cleary score this week as opposed to a spud score. 
    Plus I have the luxury or convenience of not having any of Gosi, Croker, Host or anyone that has to go etc.

    Haha all good, I got the joke mate.

    Putting it in the context of not having Cleary against the hapless Dogs, probably changes things to be honest.....I'd be doing the exact same thing!
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:09 pm

    Hmmm after looking at MTBs site im leaning towards LAM/Alvaro over Ofa/Leniu.

    Bit of a hit and hope scenario

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