NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 71 - zero trades left

RandomSil wrote:So joined up with a Gridiron group this past week. Had the first training hit out and about died. Guess that is what i get for avoiding any cardio for the last 28 years. Fuck me, and now i get to sort out my rabble.

I know Best went to see a surgeon today do we have a report on that?

Good stuff mate. I had a mate that played 1 year & he said training in all that gear is hard.

Empyreal wrote:Just 1 trade for me this week despite my urge to move on Matterson as well. Going Havili to Thompson.

Thompson in for me too. Urge to upgrade fog this week, but will resist and see what mayhem is unleashed on us over the round and tlt.

standard-issue wrote:

RandomSil wrote:So joined up with a Gridiron group this past week. Had the first training hit out and about died. Guess that is what i get for avoiding any cardio for the last 28 years. Fuck me, and now i get to sort out my rabble.

I subsequently know Best went to see a surgeon today do we have a report on that?

FTFY

Mate it is fucking close to it, and @"White_Lightning" yeah we havent evem got that far yet I am going to be wrecked.

RandomSil wrote:

standard-issue wrote:

RandomSil wrote:So joined up with a Gridiron group this past week. Had the first training hit out and about died. Guess that is what i get for avoiding any cardio for the last 28 years. Fuck me, and now i get to sort out my rabble.

I subsequently know Best went to see a surgeon today do we have a report on that?

FTFY

Mate it is fucking close to it, and @"White_Lightning" yeah we havent evem got that far yet I am going to be wrecked.

I remember being invited to train with the Perth Broncos Grid Iron team at a party about 15 years ago after mentioning I'd played a dozen or so games of Rugby League in High School.  Although to this day I maintain that is was the Goosey I threw going to get beers out of the communal esky that really sealed the deal.  

The Goosey wasn't actually a Goosey, I was just really pissed.  But they clearly saw something in me!

Suffice to say I didn't answer any unknown numbers on my Nokia N70 for the next week or so because I didn't want to let themselves nor myself down...

For those who are captaining Haas, a fun fact is that Haas's past scores vs Souths are pretty low by his standards, 52 earlier this year, then 57 and 51 last year, with a 22 in 20 minutes in 2018 (his debut)

He is definitely still the safest captaincy option you can pick, but I personally want to go elsewhere. If the weather is clear in Sydney tomorrow and I'm feeling brave, I might stick the armband back on Ted for the 5th week in a row and pray he does a job on the Dragons, but odds are I'm going to go with one of Lolo, Cleary or Munster, depending on my risk apetite tomorrow night

Bethany_B wrote:For those who are captaining Haas, a fun fact is that Haas's past scores vs Souths are pretty low by his standards, 52 earlier this year, then 57 and 51 last year, with a 22 in 20 minutes in 2018 (his debut)

He is definitely still the safest captaincy option you can pick, but I personally want to go elsewhere. If the weather is clear in Sydney tomorrow and I'm feeling brave, I might stick the armband back on Ted for the 5th week in a row and pray he does a job on the Dragons, but odds are I'm going to go with one of Lolo, Cleary or Munster, depending on my risk apetite tomorrow night

Very relevant for those who play Captain Roulette.  Just on this, interested in those who don't 'pick and stick' as to how you actually decide?  Match ups, average, last round score, gut feel, alcohol induced?

I am conservative and pick my initial team based around an expected year long Captain.  The one year I played the week to week Wheel over the last decade was my worst I think.

standard-issue wrote:

Very relevant for those who play Captain Roulette.  Just on this, interested in those who don't 'pick and stick' as to how you actually decide?  Match ups, average, last round score, gut feel, alcohol induced?

I am conservative and pick my initial team based around an expected year long Captain.  The one year I played the week to week Wheel over the last decade was my worst I think.

I tend to do it based on matchup with some gut feel sprinkled in. When in doubt I tend to favour the guy with the highest upside that has an acceptable floor. For example, Munster and Cleary have similar upside but Cleary has a much higher floor, so I would usually captain Cleary ahead of Munster, unless Cleary has a really bad matchup and Munster has a really good one.

That said, I've actually just compiled a table in Excel where I can look at a player's stats and try to guess their likely floor and ceiling from that. The value I'm using is base stats + power stats + negative stats + average goal points per game (e.g. Cleary kicks an average of 4 goals per game so 8 points get added to the formula), while the ceiling is the floor stats + average creative + evasion stats per game, and 3rd quartile instead of 1st quartile like the floor.

Using this model, my captaincy options have the following floors and ceilings

Cleary: Floor 69, Ceiling 109.3
Haas: Floor 58.75, Ceiling 82
Tedesco: Floor 41.25, Ceiling 73.2
Lolo: Floor 62, Ceiling 73.55
Ponga: Floor 41, Ceiling 70.73

Based on that, I think I will captain Cleary, at least this week if not for longer, though that being said, this is a pretty rough model and doesn't take minutes or opposition into account.

Those numbers look way off.

Teddy, Ponga and Cleary would have floors around 30 and ceilings around 100.

Haas and Taumalolo floors around 50 and ceilings around 90.

Just from experience and a glance at stats..

Bethany_B wrote:

standard-issue wrote:

Very relevant for those who play Captain Roulette.  Just on this, interested in those who don't 'pick and stick' as to how you actually decide?  Match ups, average, last round score, gut feel, alcohol induced?

I am conservative and pick my initial team based around an expected year long Captain.  The one year I played the week to week Wheel over the last decade was my worst I think.

I tend to do it based on matchup with some gut feel sprinkled in. When in doubt I tend to favour the guy with the highest upside that has an acceptable floor. For example, Munster and Cleary have similar upside but Cleary has a much higher floor, so I would usually captain Cleary ahead of Munster, unless Cleary has a really bad matchup and Munster has a really good one.

That said, I've actually just compiled a table in Excel where I can look at a player's stats and try to guess their likely floor and ceiling from that. The value I'm using is base stats + power stats + negative stats + average goal points per game (e.g. Cleary kicks an average of 4 goals per game so 8 points get added to the formula), while the ceiling is the floor stats + average creative + evasion stats per game, and 3rd quartile instead of 1st quartile like the floor.

Using this model, my captaincy options have the following floors and ceilings

Cleary: Floor 69, Ceiling 109.3
Haas: Floor 58.75, Ceiling 82
Tedesco: Floor 41.25, Ceiling 73.2
Lolo: Floor 62, Ceiling 73.55
Ponga: Floor 41, Ceiling 70.73

Based on that, I think I will captain Cleary, at least this week if not for longer, though that being said, this is a pretty rough model and doesn't take minutes or opposition into account.

Wowsers! Love your work Bethany. Literally spent half an hour looking at Cleary's stats and subjectively reasoning why his floor shouldn't be that high, but you make a very good case!

WT Winfield wrote:Those numbers look way off.

Teddy, Ponga and Cleary would have floors around 30 and ceilings around 100.

Haas and Taumalolo floors around 50 and ceilings around 90.

Just from experience and a glance at stats..

I thought so as well, because to me a floor is literally the lowest score over a season under "normal circumstances", and conversely with a ceiling as well. Cleary, in particular though, suggests his floor of 35 under that definition is an outlier than can actually be reasonably discarded in the big scheme of things to me.

standard-issue wrote:

I thought so as well, because to me a floor is literally the lowest score over a season under "normal circumstances", and conversely with a ceiling as well.  Cleary, in particular though, suggests his floor of 35 under that definition is an outlier than can actually be reasonably discarded in the big scheme of things to me.

Tbh floor and ceiling aren't the best terms to use for that, since I'm using 1st and 3rd quartile. If I was using a true floor and ceiling, I would probably use 10th and 90th percentiles, or even 5th and 95th percentiles.

Either way, it's a rough model that needs a bit of tweaking but it's something

standard-issue wrote:

I thought so as well, because to me a floor is literally the lowest score over a season under "normal circumstances", and conversely with a ceiling as well.  Cleary, in particular though, suggests his floor of 35 under that definition is an outlier than can actually be reasonably discarded in the big scheme of things to me.

Yeah Cleary's might be a little higher, has the odd low 30 over the past couple of seasons, but if we factor in maturity (on the field) and the new rules, his floor is probably closer to 40 than 30.

60+ is completely unrealistic as a floor though, for anyone

Bethany_B wrote:

standard-issue wrote:

I thought so as well, because to me a floor is literally the lowest score over a season under "normal circumstances", and conversely with a ceiling as well.  Cleary, in particular though, suggests his floor of 35 under that definition is an outlier than can actually be reasonably discarded in the big scheme of things to me.

Tbh floor and ceiling aren't the best terms to use for that, since I'm using 1st and 3rd quartile. If I was using a true floor and ceiling, I would probably use 10th and 90th percentiles, or even 5th and 95th percentiles.

Either way, it's a rough model that needs a bit of tweaking but it's something

QUARTILES!!!

To put all of this Stats and Tech stuff in perspective, I was actually approached by a fellow long term Fanatics poster tonight to post a video because they didn't know how.  Yep, let that sink in.  

The poster in question @bullbender will remain anonymous and I won't name him @bullbender but of the 1000 plus registered members on here  don't discount that it may have been @bullbender

Happy that Butcher is starting but deep down was so looking forward to a Munster/Moses.

Oh well will look again next week. Just hoping Taumalolo has a banner game in him this week

WT2K wrote:Bateman/Fifita is a tough decision

I was also torn until I checked out the BEs (Bateman 71, Fifita 53). It looks less likely that Bateman's price will get away from us after one week.

D. Fifita in for me this week with Bateman on the cards for next - but as I've said before .... if you want to give God a laugh - tell him your plans.


Edit: .... of course, if your decision is because you can only get one of them then that didn't help! I would probably go Bateman in that case - maybe

attn hetho owners

Talking of Hetherington, I’m told he won’t be allowed to line up for the Warriors against Penrith next week.

https://westernweekender.com.au/2020/08/masked-panther-tamou-rules-out-uk-switch/

I'm pretty sure the "masked panther" is just Nathan Taylor from that newspaper.

Gotta laugh at his dig at "the mole"

my tv broke wrote:attn hetho owners

Talking of Hetherington, I’m told he won’t be allowed to line up for the Warriors against Penrith next week.

https://westernweekender.com.au/2020/08/masked-panther-tamou-rules-out-uk-switch/

I'm pretty sure the "masked panther" is just Nathan Taylor from that newspaper.

Gotta laugh at his dig at "the mole"

Yeah that last pragraph was a laugh.

Makes sense he can't play them. Hopefully don't need him next week like I do this week.

Just put a multi on Dragons, Donkeys, Warriors h2h. Anyone else want a free donation?