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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 3

    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:51 pm

    Didn’t MTB post something in the 2019 pre season showing the best cash gainers of 2018 in first 6 rounds were 2RFs (Kikau being the major one in 2018)

    Don’t know off the top of my head for 2019 but it might have been slightly different with likes of Sivo and Rava & Haas (if R6 was included because he only started from R5 onwards) but I imagine mid range 2RFs would have still been up there

    Just think that given the ending 2RFs you’ll want to have are LoLo, Bateman etc you’ll still probably have to end up using trades on sub gun 2RFs
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:04 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:Didn’t MTB post something in the 2019 pre season showing the best cash gainers of 2018 in first 6 rounds were 2RFs (Kikau being the major one in 2018)

    Don’t know off the top of my head for 2019 but it might have been slightly different with likes of Sivo and Rava & Haas (if R6 was included because he only started from R5 onwards) but I imagine mid range 2RFs would have still been up there

    Just think that given the ending 2RFs you’ll want to have are LoLo, Bateman etc you’ll still probably have to end up using trades on sub gun 2RFs

    Fifita > 70 mins average of 60
    Garner > 70 mins average of 63
    Brown in 2018 > 60 mins average of 57.5 ; 2017 > 60 mins average of 58.6

    If they are getting the expected minutes, they are at keeper level for the position.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:20 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Fifita > 70 mins average of 60
    Garner > 70 mins average of 63
    Brown in 2018 > 60 mins average of 57.5 ; 2017 > 60 mins average of 58.6

    If they are getting the expected minutes, they are at keeper level for the position.

    Not saying they’re bad picks (Fifita is a lock for me, too scared not to own him with his ceiling). Just saying you probably can’t factor in keeping them all unless you’ll be able to fit in players like Lolo, Bateman and other established final 17 players when the time comes

    Garner has 4T, 1TA in the 5 games over 70 mins. Surely not sustainable. Also if you drop filter to above 60 mins it includes 47 in 70 mins with try and 29 in 62 mins as lower scores which drops avg to 54.3
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:32 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    The issue with guys priced at 28-35 in 2RF is that when they perform as hoped and give you 40-45, they still need to be upgraded to a gun sooner rather than later. Buying an underpriced, gun level player at the start saves you a trade, as they can be a keeper for the season, saving approx $150k value of a trade that you can use elsewhere.

    If it was that easy to find an under priced gun we would all do it in every position. There simply aren't enough players capable of doing that to warrant not spending trades.

    Last year for example

    Hooker: You have to go all the way to Mahoney who was the 6th best averaging hooker. His average was 14 points lower than the #1 which is firmly not keeper territory
    Prop: Haas was the exception not the rule. Only prop in the top 10 averages to have been "under priced" by 10 points or more was Haas. Every serious team traded in Haas with-in 2 weeks
    Second Row: Bateman and Murray the only options here. No one started the year with Bateman(everyone trading him in) and everyone started the year with Murray. No advantage here
    Half: Moses the only half to increase average by 10 points and be a keeper. Most had him in time for the run home with very few owning him before the bye rounds
    Centre: Bird increased his average by 10+ points, however was in majority of teams by round 2 and had to be traded out
    WFB: CNK increased average by 10+ points, was in every serious team

    How do you plan to find these under priced gun level players that no one else does?
    The Goat Boys
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    Post by The Goat Boys on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:38 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    If it was that easy to find an under priced gun we would all do it in every position. There simply aren't enough players capable of doing that to warrant not spending trades.

    Last year for example

    Hooker: You have to go all the way to Mahoney who was the 6th best averaging hooker. His average was 14 points lower than the #1 which is firmly not keeper territory
    Prop: Haas was the exception not the rule. Only prop in the top 10 averages to have been "under priced" by 10 points or more was Haas. Every serious team traded in Haas with-in 2 weeks
    Second Row: Bateman and Murray the only options here. No one started the year with Bateman(everyone trading him in) and everyone started the year with Murray. No advantage here
    Half: Moses the only half to increase average by 10 points and be a keeper. Most had him in time for the run home with very few owning him before the bye rounds
    Centre: Bird increased his average by 10+ points, however was in majority of teams by round 2 and had to be traded out
    WFB: CNK increased average by 10+ points, was in every serious team

    How do you plan to find these under priced gun level players that no one else does?

    Nathan Brown, Andrew Fifita, Angus Crichton, Potentially David Fifita all have a high chance of increasing their price
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:39 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    If it was that easy to find an under priced gun we would all do it in every position. There simply aren't enough players capable of doing that to warrant not spending trades.

    Last year for example

    Hooker: You have to go all the way to Mahoney who was the 6th best averaging hooker. His average was 14 points lower than the #1 which is firmly not keeper territory
    Prop: Haas was the exception not the rule. Only prop in the top 10 averages to have been "under priced" by 10 points or more was Haas. Every serious team traded in Haas with-in 2 weeks
    Second Row: Bateman and Murray the only options here. No one started the year with Bateman(everyone trading him in) and everyone started the year with Murray. No advantage here
    Half: Moses the only half to increase average by 10 points and be a keeper. Most had him in time for the run home with very few owning him before the bye rounds
    Centre: Bird increased his average by 10+ points, however was in majority of teams by round 2 and had to be traded out
    WFB: CNK increased average by 10+ points, was in every serious team

    How do you plan to find these under priced gun level players that no one else does?

    I had Bateman, Murray and Mahoney in my initial team, Moses and CNK from round 3, Haas from his first game, I did a pretty good job finding them last season ahead of the pack.
    code delta
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    Post by code delta on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:46 pm

    So if you have 20 players you're happy to run with and simply can't afford play 21 does the blank spot at 21 stop you entering a team??
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:47 pm

    @code delta wrote:So if you have 20 players you're happy to run with and simply can't afford play 21 does the blank spot at 21 stop you entering a team??

    Yes, a compliant team has 21 players within the $9.8M cap.
    Teeth Eater
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    Post by Teeth Eater on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:48 pm

    You could say this about a lot of players and I don't like using it as an excuse to not pick players up, but I'd be worried about both Nathan Brown and Garner when it comes to injuries. I don't have stats and stuff before me, but Brown seems good for a pretty significant injury per season, and Garner's sudden disappearance from first grade for a rather long stint last year would worry me a bit too. Garner was HIA related, wasn't it? A head knock or two again this year and he could be missing for a while.

    Like I said, you could say that about a lot of players, but that's why I won't be pursuing those two, even though I love having Brown (as an Eels fan) and I loved having Garner last year - great player.
    code delta
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    Post by code delta on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:03 pm

    @The Goat Boys wrote:I'm stacking my front and second row this year
    Why? Value??
    I'm thinking about stacking HRKs and HLFs to get points from the get go.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:03 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Fifita > 70 mins average of 60
    Garner > 70 mins average of 63
    Brown in 2018 > 60 mins average of 57.5 ; 2017 > 60 mins average of 58.6

    If they are getting the expected minutes, they are at keeper level for the position.

    Minute counts (and therefore averages) for Brown and Garner seem fairly optimistic based on history. Don’t think you can just ignore 2019 for Brown either.
    Ando
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    Post by Ando on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:03 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    I had Bateman, Murray and Mahoney in my initial team, Moses and CNK from round 3, Haas from his first game, I did a pretty good job finding them last season ahead of the pack.

    What rank did you finish?
    The Goat Boys
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    Post by The Goat Boys on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:05 pm

    @code delta wrote:
    Why? Value??
    I'm thinking about stacking HRKs and HLFs to get points from the get go.  

    I just believe they'll get more points and you get consistent big score every week.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:06 pm

    @Ando wrote:

    What rank did you finish?

    2000ish from memory
    Ando
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    Post by Ando on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:08 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    2000ish from memory

    Ouch
    manlybeaver
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    Post by manlybeaver on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:15 pm

    Thoughts on kikau was playing injured last year could be a potential keeper.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:22 pm

    @manlybeaver wrote:Thoughts on kikau was playing injured last year could be a potential keeper.

    He was playing injured from the week I bought him, after looking extremely dangerous before that.
    Teeth Eater
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    Post by Teeth Eater on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:24 pm

    @manlybeaver wrote:Thoughts on kikau was playing injured last year could be a potential keeper.

    I hadn't thought about him yet to be honest but looked at him after your post. Was pretty surprised to see him at $642k. Personally wouldn't touch him at that price because he was just so inconsistent last year, even when not injured (or maybe it was because he was injured?). I think he'd be a massive gamble at that price, but obviously if he's fit and firing, and Panthers go well, he's an interesting option. I'll be waiting and seeing, though.
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:29 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    2.Liam Knight - Who is going to steal his starting spot? Tom Amone and Mark Nicholls?
    Is Jai Arrow likely to stay at Titans or move to Souths this year?
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:30 pm

    @Teeth Eater wrote:

    Yeah, I've had James and Tapine in drafts so far and keeping my eye on Stimson. I guess J.Williams is another you could add to that list, and who I'm currently running with. Not sure that'll stick, though.
    I was keen on Tapine initially, but I’m not sure Stuart will regularly give him 50mins at lock.

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