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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 3

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:50 pm


    Broncos Bulldogs Cowboys Sea Eagles Dragons Eels Knights Panthers
    Rabbitohs Raiders Roosters Sharks Storm Titans Warriors Tigers

    MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor

    http://www.footystatistics.com/

    MTB's team builder
    http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php


    Excel links


    Milchcow's excel solver
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

    Milchcow's team planner
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

    arsen's excel
    http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

    mattnz's excel sheet
    https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file



    2020 BYE PLANNER

    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 3 MXmc9V9

    Player Prices  

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1127-2020-prices

    Price change formula

    New Price = 0.75 * old price + 0.25 * Weighted average * MN

    Weighted average = (5*G1 + 4*G2 + 3*G3 + 2*G4 + G5) ÷ 15

    G1 = most recent game
    G2 = game before that
    G3 = game before that
    Etc

    Before a player has played 4 games, they are assumed to have scored their priced average for the missing games from the weighted average
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:56 pm


    In answer to questions from previous thread.

    if Stimson starts (and looks like he'll stay there) I'll be all over him.

    I'm also tempted by no Pap. Think he might be a 45ish average, but we'll see ho wit goes

    Might run a back 3 of Isaako, Brimson, Doueihi (assuming he's Tigers fullback) but that requires good success. Will be tough to bring in keepers if they don't fire.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:59 pm

    Agree with pretty much everything Milchy said
    On Papy very tempted to start without him, but there isn't any stand out option in WFB that I like
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:00 pm


    no Papehuyzen, cheap backs

    Friend
    Fifita Haas
    Leilua Su'A Lowe
    Moses Luai
    Best Lomax
    Douehi Isaako Brimson

    JWilliams
    BBrailey
    Koroisau
    Grant

    Mann
    Stimson
    Moga
    Musgrove
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:01 pm

    I'll be kicking off a new series of posts by attempting to predict players minutes based on average interchange time from the team last year. Will be very heavily opinion based.

    Broncos:

    20 Lodge - Carrigan
    26 Ofa - TPJ
    34 Haas - Lodge

    47 Carrigan - Haas
    53 Lodge - Flegler
    58 Glenn - Ofa
    64 Flegler - Lodge
    69 TPJ - Glenn

    Lodge 55
    Hooker 80
    Haas 67
    Glenn 69
    Fifita 80
    Ofa 48

    Utility 0
    Tpj 45
    Flegler 11
    Carrigan 27
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:04 pm


    for FRF

    Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

    Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
    James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it
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    Post by Chewie on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:06 pm

    Shame on you guys for wasting page 51 with Fantasy related posts No

    (good to see code delta and Milch behaving like true forum members)
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    Post by Teeth Eater on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:07 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    In answer to questions from previous thread.

    if Stimson starts (and looks like he'll stay there) I'll be all over him.

    I'm also tempted by no Pap. Think he might be a 45ish average, but we'll see ho wit goes

    Might run a back 3 of Isaako, Brimson, Doueihi (assuming he's Tigers fullback) but that requires good success. Will be tough to bring in keepers if they don't fire.

    Yeah, I was going to say the same about Stimson. If he starts I could really use that kind of value in my second row.

    I currently have Best in my centres but would be opening to Talau (also if he's named) instead so I could swap another cheapie out for Stimson. I do like him, but would really like to see him set to play big minutes every week.

    Is that the plan, for Doueihi to be the Tigers fullback? Interesting option if so. I'm still thinking of giving Holmes a crack, but Doueihi at fullback might change that. Especially at DPP.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:08 pm

    @Chewie wrote:Shame on you guys for wasting page 51 with Fantasy related posts No

    Do regular fantasy fanatics rip people's arms off when they don't get a party? Wookiees have been known to do that.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:09 pm

    @Teeth Eater wrote:
    Is that the plan, for Doueihi to be the Tigers fullback? Interesting option if so. I'm still thinking of giving Holmes a crack, but Doueihi at fullback might change that. Especially at DPP.  

    If the Tigers sign Doueihi I assume it would be to play 1 this year, potentially with a move to 6 once Benji retires.

    Not sure why he'd leave Souths to have a bench role with a worse club (unless we are just overpaying him heaps)
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:10 pm

    There are lots of potential 2RF value buys around the $400-500k range Leilua, Lowe, Sua, James, Stimson, Tapine etc. I am deliberately skipping them and going to the under-priced gun level instead with Fifita, Garner, Brown as my 2RF, along with Magoulias as base priced back up.


    Last edited by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:11 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    for FRF

    Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

    Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
    James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it

    I would also like someone to do this for me. If I had to rank them based on what we currently know

    1.Ryan James - Previous pedigree and Titans have shit forwards so he will get a bunch of minutes
    2.Liam Knight - Who is going to steal his starting spot? Tom Amone and Mark Nicholls?
    3.Trent Merrin - Previous pedigree but he is in a stronger pack and performed poorly his last NRL season
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    Post by Honey Badger on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:18 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    If the Tigers sign Doueihi I assume it would be to play 1 this year, potentially with a move to 6 once Benji retires.

    Not sure why he'd leave Souths to have a bench role with a worse club (unless we are just overpaying him heaps)

    Sounds like Roosters have made a play for him. Guessing they want to play him in the ctrs
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:23 pm

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I would also like someone to do this for me. If I had to rank them based on what we currently know

    1.Ryan James - Previous pedigree and Titans have shit forwards so he will get a bunch of minutes
    2.Liam Knight - Who is going to steal his starting spot? Tom Amone and Mark Nicholls?
    3.Trent Merrin - Previous pedigree but he is in a stronger pack and performed poorly his last NRL season

    Not seeing the appeal of Knight, he averaged 41 minutes last season, Murray will get big minutes in the absence of Surgess, Knight gets maybe 45 minutes per game with Nicholls sharing the other 35 minutes (averaged 32.4 minutes last season).
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    Post by The Goat Boys on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:24 pm

    I'm stacking my front and second row this year
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:25 pm

    @The Goat Boys wrote:I'm stacking my front and second row this year

    Me too, average $700k ish in my starters there.
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    Post by Chewie on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:29 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:
    for FRF

    Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

    Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
    James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it

    My 2 cents:

    RJames: if starting as a prop, big yes, potential of 10-15 point increase (expected avg 53), DPP is a plus, plays round 12. Steer clear if 2RF

    Krispy Kreme: I expect a 50mins stint at lock, potential 5-10 point increase (expected avg 47), no DPP, plays round 12

    Knight: I expect about 50mins stint at prop, potential 5-10 point increase (expected avg 48), no DPP, plays round 12
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    Post by Teeth Eater on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:39 pm

    @mattnz wrote:There are lots of potential 2RF value buys around the $400-500k range Leilua, Lowe, Sua, James, Stimson, Tapine etc. I am deliberately skipping them and going to the under-priced gun level instead with Fifita, Garner, Brown as my 2RF, along with Magoulias as base priced back up.

    Yeah, I've had James and Tapine in drafts so far and keeping my eye on Stimson. I guess J.Williams is another you could add to that list, and who I'm currently running with. Not sure that'll stick, though.
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    Post by The Goat Boys on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:42 pm

    @mattnz wrote:

    Me too, average $700k ish in my starters there.

    Yeah same here. Ours are probably pretty similar
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    Post by mattnz on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:50 pm

    @Teeth Eater wrote:

    Yeah, I've had James and Tapine in drafts so far and keeping my eye on Stimson. I guess J.Williams is another you could add to that list, and who I'm currently running with. Not sure that'll stick, though.

    The issue with guys priced at 28-35 in 2RF is that when they perform as hoped and give you 40-45, they still need to be upgraded to a gun sooner rather than later. Buying an underpriced, gun level player at the start saves you a trade, as they can be a keeper for the season, saving approx $150k value of a trade that you can use elsewhere.

      Current date/time is Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:48 am